Baker Mayfield 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 31
- Height / weight
- 6'1", 215 lb
- Experience
- 9th season
- Drafted
- 2018 R1, #1
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 12.4
- Pos rank
- QB25
- Rostered
- 42%
Week 4 vs. Packers, Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET 22nd vs. QBs, neutral
Baker Mayfield Rest-of-Season Outlook
Volume-driven QB3 on the sideline for now
Out, thumb.
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished QB12 last season at 16.6 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 3 games he's QB25 at 12.4 PPR points per game, against 16.6 over 17 games last season (QB12). He's running behind last season's pace.
Last season he ranked 12th of 41 in passing volume (31.9 attempts per game), 20th of 41 in efficiency (0.053 EPA per play) and 13th of 41 in rushing (22.5 rush yards per game). His points come from his passing volume. Efficiency is the soft spot. Emeka Egbuka and Cade Otton are his top two targets.
He's out, thumb. Until he's back, his value is a bench spot at most, and Jalon Daniels takes his snaps.
The next favorable matchups are the Cowboys in Week 5 (3rd against QBs) and the Panthers in Week 7 (8th against QBs).
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 17, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Mayfield's 2025 spine reads like a giveback of everything he built in 2024. EPA per play collapsed from 0.171 to 0.053, success rate slipped from 51.3% to 44.5%, and his completion rate over expected flipped from +3.6 to -2.1. The touchdowns followed, falling from 41 to 26, and the fantasy total dropped from 365.8 points (QB3) to 271.9 (QB10). A 15.7% bad-throw rate and 83 poor throws across 17 games tell you the accuracy regression was real, not noise, even as he stayed on the field through a shoulder issue and a battered line.
The surrounding picture only muddies the bet. Evans is gone, Godwin's health is unresolved, and Egbuka must take a real step after a hamstring stalled his rookie surge. A new playcaller adds another coordinator to an annual carousel. He's a back-end QB2 in the QB14-21 band, with genuine QB1 upside only if the accuracy stabilizes and the receiver room holds together.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 41 quarterbacks who played at least six games. Each bar is one quarterback, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Passing volume
Efficiency
Rushing
- Success rate
- 44.5%
- CPOE
- −2.1
- Sacks taken
- 36
- Pressure rate
- 14.8%
- Bad-throw rate
- 15.7%
- Deep-attempt rate
- 11.9%
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- A soft stretchThe Cowboys in Week 5 and the Panthers in Week 7 are top-10 matchups for QBs.Wk 4 GB, 22ndWk 5 DAL, 3rdWk 6 PIT, 26thWk 7 CAR, 8th
- Heavy passing volume31.9 attempts per game, 12th of 41 QBs in 2025.
- Major rushing22.5 rush yards per game, 13th of 41 QBs in 2025.
Risk
- InjuryHe's out, thumb, and Jalon Daniels is next on the depth chart.
- A tough matchupThe Steelers in Week 6 (26th) is among the stingiest defenses against QBs.
- Pressure and sacks36 sacks and a 14.8% pressure rate in 2025.
All Baker Mayfield stats & analysis
QBs like Baker Mayfield
QB22Cam WardTitans42.2 PTS
QB23Malik WillisDolphins41.2 PTS
QB24Justin HerbertChargers37.9 PTS
QB25You are hereBaker MayfieldBuccaneers37.1 PTS
QB26Drew LockSeahawks34.2 PTS
QB27Jayden DanielsCommanders32.4 PTS
QB28Daniel JonesColts31.3 PTS
Baker Mayfield Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Baker Mayfield's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Baker Mayfield projects as a volume-driven QB3 on the sideline for now for the rest of the 2026 season: a bench stash in superflex and 2QB and 12-team 1QB leagues and waiver-wire material in 10-team 1QB leagues. His passing volume (31.9 attempts per game, 12th of 41 QBs in 2025) supports that. His efficiency (0.053 EPA per play, 20th of 41 QBs in 2025) holds him back. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Baker Mayfield's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Baker Mayfield is the QB25 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in QB3 territory, a bench stash in 12-team 1QB leagues.
What is Baker Mayfield's projected role going forward?
Baker Mayfield is the listed starting QB, with Jalon Daniels next on the depth chart. He is out, thumb for now, which puts that role on hold.
Will Baker Mayfield get more pass attempts?
Baker Mayfield's pass attempts are holding steady: 34.0 a game over his last two games against 32.0 for the season. Game script drives much of that, and trailing teams throw more.
What is Baker Mayfield's fantasy football upside?
Baker Mayfield's upside: his ceiling this season is 13.2 PPR points (Week 2, QB21), his passing volume (31.9 attempts per game, 12th of 41 QBs in 2025) gives him a weekly floor to build on and the Cowboys in Week 5 and the Panthers in Week 7 are top-10 matchups for QBs.
What could hurt Baker Mayfield's fantasy value?
Baker Mayfield's risks: he is out, thumb, his efficiency (0.053 EPA per play, 20th of 41 QBs in 2025) limits his scoring and the Steelers in Week 6 is a tough matchup. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Baker Mayfield's remaining fantasy schedule?
Favorable: of his next seven games, 3 come against a top-10 matchup for QBs and 1 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.