NFC South · 2026 Season
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Usage & Opportunity Report 2026
Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday
Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.
- Pass rate over expected−0.6%12thThrows about as much as situations call for — the target tree, not the play-calling, decides who eats
- Red-zone pass rate81%1stThrows inside the 20 — Egbuka's 2 end-zone targets lead the team
- Neutral pace32.2s9th fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations — a fast offense means more snaps for every starter
- Plays per game59.019thOffensive plays a game — league-average volume, so shares decide it
- Team xFP / game82.821stTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates
The Target Tree
All 99 Buccaneers pass attempts through Week 4
- Emeka Egbuka 20.2%
- Cade Otton 17.2%
- Bucky Irving 15.2%
- Ted Hurst 13.1%
- Chris Godwin 11.1%
- Gainwell/Johnson/McMillan 18.2%
- Everyone else 1.0%
- No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 4.0%
The Backfield Split
Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.
- Bucky Irving 70.0%
- Kenny Gainwell 30.0%
Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.
- 23.3Irving weighted opps/game — RB12 in the NFL
- 16Irving high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
- 10.0Gainwell weighted opps/game
- −1.0Irving wOpp/g vs. last season — the same role as last season
Why Irving's reception count stays capped: Kenny Gainwell owns 64% of the backs' third-down work and 67% of two-minute work. Irving's 74-catch pace isn't a talent question — the passing-down role belongs to Gainwell. Green flag for his rushing floor, hard ceiling on his PPR upside.
The Gainwell math if Irving misses time: Gainwell backs up the early-down and red-zone roles (the valuable ones). A Irving absence projects Gainwell to ~100% of weighted opportunities — about 33.3 a game, a top-12 weekly RB by volume — and why he's a STASH, not a cut.
Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap
- 7.111 attLeft end
- 2.86 attLeft tackle
- 2.929 attMiddle
- 5.05 attRight tackle
- 2.04 attRight end
Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.
The left side is the run game's engine: 7.1 yards per carry off left end — 31% of all designed runs go that way, and all three of Irving's three longest runs came off the left side. Interior volume (29 attempts) does the clock work at 2.9; the left edge does the damage. When the line's left side sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.
Where Mayfield Attacks
Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4
- 5%4.2 YPADeep left
- 4%22.3 YPADeep middle
- 7%0.0 YPADeep right
Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards
- 35%5.5 YPAShort left
- 15%7.8 YPAShort middle · Egbuka
- 33%5.9 YPAShort right
The short middle is the efficiency engine (7.8 YPA) — and it's Egbuka's territory. Mayfield keeps 84% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep middle his most explosive zone (22.3 YPA on 4 attempts). Hurst's fantasy problem, mapped: a 19.2-yard aDOT puts him in the 16% deep slice of this chart while the short middle feasts. Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.
| Profile | Player | Opportunity (WOPR) | Target share | Snap share | RZ touches | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky IrvingRB1, 77% of RB touchesRB12 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 77% | 15.2%−14.2 vs W1 | 64%−9 vs W1 | 72 · 3 · 2 — leads team | Set & forget | |
The locked-in workhorse. A 70% share of the backs' red-zone work is the RB stat that tracks fantasy points best, and 1 green-zone carry put him at the goal line. Production is running −0.2 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Emeka EgbukaWR1WR32 in target share, NFL | 0.49strong — elite at 0.60 | 20.2%+2.9 vs W1 | 82%−12 vs W1 | 20 · 2 · 0 | Set & forget | |
Volume you can set in the lineup. A 20.2% target share and 12.5 expected points a game, with a 25.4% first-read share; a 26.1% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. He's −1.6 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Cade OttonTE1TE12 in target share, NFL | 0.36strong for TE | 17.2%steady | 94%steady | 22 · 0 · 0 | Starter | |
A starter's share without the alpha tag. A 17.2% target share and 8.9 expected points a game, with a 20.3% first-read share; a 14.4% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. Production is running −1.2 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| Ted HurstWR2WR61 in target share, NFL | 0.38flex range | 13.1%−2.6 vs W1 | 75%steady | 20 · 2 · 0 | Volatile | |
The deep-decoy profile. A 19.2-yard aDOT sits past the depth where weekly production turns boom/bust, and a 13.1% target share says he isn't earning volume when he's out there. Best-ball ceiling, seasonal-league headache. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Chris GodwinWR3WR69 in target share, NFL | 0.20below startable | 11.1%−3.5 vs W1 | 77%−24 vs W1 | 00 · 0 · 0 | Volatile | |
The ceiling problem in two numbers: a 5.4% air-yards share and a 4.7 aDOT. His targets travel nowhere, so even a healthy target share converts to modest yardage. Production is running +1.3 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Kenny GainwellRB2 · handcuff, 23% of RB touchesRB45 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 23% | 10.1%+9.9 vs W1 | 42%steady | 3 ▲0 · 2 · 1 | Stash | |
Contingent value, quantified. The 23% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Irving misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Baker MayfieldQB1QB18 in xFP/game, NFL | —every dropback | —the passer | 98%−6 vs W1 | 53 · 2 · 0 | Volatile | |
A pocket passer's profile. 1 green-zone carry and a 7.6% scramble rate: his points have to come through the air, so his weekly range follows the pass volume (QB18 in expected points). He's −3.8 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs. | ||||||
How to read this table
- Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
- Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
- Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
- Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
- Stash the role behind the role
- WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
- + button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league
Watch
Chris Godwin
Under 15% target share on a shrinking snap count. One more quiet week and he's droppable in 12-team leagues; an injury above him is the fastest path back.
- 10.8%W3 target share
- 0RZ touches since W1
Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.
Explore StatChasers
- Fantasy Football ToolsThe #1 ranked fantasy football toolset.Open
- Advanced Player StatsDeeper numbers on every player in the league.Open
- Strength of ScheduleMatchup difficulty by fantasy position, including the playoff weeks.Open
- Fantasy Points AllowedHow Tampa Bay's defense performs against QB, RB, WR and TE.Open
Common questions
Who leads the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in target share?
Emeka Egbuka leads the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a 20.2% target share through Week 4, up 2.9 points since Week 1. Cade Otton is second at 17.2%.