Derrick Henry 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 32
- Height / weight
- 6'3", 252 lb
- Experience
- 11th season
- Drafted
- 2016 R2, #45
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 25.0
- Pos rank
- RB4
- Rostered
- 99%
Week 4 vs. Titans, Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET 14th vs. RBs, neutral
Derrick Henry Rest-of-Season Outlook
Workhorse RB1 every week
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished RB8 last season at 16.4 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 3 games he's RB4 at 25.0 PPR points per game, against 16.4 over 17 games last season (RB8). He's running ahead of last season's pace.
Last season he ranked 4th of 95 in rushing volume (18.1 carries per game), 54th of 95 in receiving role (1.2 targets per game) and 25th of 95 in efficiency (2.25 yards after contact per carry). His points come from his rushing volume. Receiving role is the soft spot. Lamar Jackson is his quarterback.
The job is secure: he's the listed starter and one of the best at his position. The main risk is health, and Justice Hill is next on the depth chart if he misses time.
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 16, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Henry banked 264.5 fantasy points and an RB7 finish in 2025 on 307 carries, 1,595 yards, a 5.2 average and 16 rushing scores across all 17 games. Volume and the goal line stay locked in: 65 red-zone opportunities and 27 goal-line carries kept the touchdown floor sky-high even at age 31. That's the bankable part of the profile heading into his age-32 campaign.
The efficiency trend, though, demands attention. EPA per play collapsed from 0.143 to 0.019 year over year, yards after contact dipped to 2.25, and broken tackles cratered from 42 to just 12. Explosive-run rate slid to 11.7 percent as the bursts that defined 2024 thinned out. With Baltimore's interior line in flux, draft him as a touchdown-dependent RB1 in the back half of round one, not the dominant force he was a season ago.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 95 running backs who played at least six games. Each bar is one running back, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Rushing volume
Receiving role
Efficiency
- Yards after contact per carry
- 2.25
- Broken tackles
- 12
- Explosive-run rate
- 11.7%
- Red-zone opportunities
- 65
- Snap share
- 54.5%
- Targets
- 21
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- The scheduleNone of his next four opponents is a top-10 matchup for RBs.Wk 4 TEN, 14thWk 5 ATL, 30thWk 6 CLE, 26thWk 7 CIN, 13th
- Heavy rushing volume18.1 carries per game, 4th of 95 RBs in 2025.
- Strong efficiency2.25 yards after contact per carry, 25th of 95 RBs in 2025.
Risk
- HealthHis role is secure; if he misses time, Justice Hill is next on the depth chart.
- Tough matchupsThe Falcons in Week 5 (30th) and the Browns in Week 6 (26th) are among the stingiest defenses against RBs.
- Ball security4 fumbles in 2025.
All Derrick Henry stats & analysis
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Derrick Henry Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Derrick Henry's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Derrick Henry projects as a workhorse RB1 every week for the rest of the 2026 season: a weekly starter in 12-team PPR, 10-team PPR and half-PPR leagues. His rushing volume (18.1 carries per game, 4th of 95 RBs in 2025) supports that. His receiving role (1.2 targets per game, 54th of 95 RBs in 2025) holds him back. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Derrick Henry's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Derrick Henry is the RB4 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in RB1 territory, a weekly starter in 10-team PPR leagues.
What is Derrick Henry's projected role going forward?
Derrick Henry is the listed starting RB, with Justice Hill next on the depth chart. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
Will Derrick Henry get more touches?
Derrick Henry's touches are holding steady: 23.0 a game over his last two games against 23.7 for the season. His share of the offense is what his fantasy value rides on.
What is Derrick Henry's fantasy football upside?
Derrick Henry's upside: his ceiling this season is 35.3 PPR points (Week 1, RB1) and his rushing volume (18.1 carries per game, 4th of 95 RBs in 2025) gives him a weekly floor to build on.
What could hurt Derrick Henry's fantasy value?
Derrick Henry's risks: Justice Hill is next on the depth chart if he is benched or hurt, his receiving role (1.2 targets per game, 54th of 95 RBs in 2025) limits his scoring and the Falcons in Week 5 and the Browns in Week 6 are tough matchups. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Derrick Henry's remaining fantasy schedule?
Difficult: of his next seven games, 1 comes against a top-10 matchup for RBs and 3 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.