AFC North · 2026 Season
Baltimore Ravens
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Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens Usage & Opportunity Report 2026
Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday
Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.
- Pass rate over expected−8.0%27thRuns more than game situations call for — a cap on the pass-catchers' volume and a floor under Henry
- Red-zone pass rate33%31stRun-first inside the 20 — Henry's 14 green-zone carries eat the receivers' TDs
- Neutral pace35.8s31st fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations — a slow offense shrinks the pie
- Plays per game57.724thOffensive plays a game — fewer snaps to go around, so shares matter more
- Team xFP / game86.717thTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates
The Target Tree
All 74 Ravens pass attempts through Week 4
- Mark Andrews 24.3%
- Rashod Bateman 17.6%
- Zay Flowers 16.2%
- Chris Moore 8.1%
- Derrick Henry 6.8%
- Wester/Hill/Hibner 13.5%
- Everyone else 12.2%
- No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 1.4%
The Backfield Split
Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.
- Derrick Henry 80.0%
- Justice Hill 20.0%
Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.
- 25.3Henry weighted opps/game — RB6 in the NFL
- 19Henry high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
- 6.3Hill weighted opps/game
- +4.8Henry wOpp/g vs. last season — role grew, not just efficiency
Why Henry's floor holds in PPR: He keeps 63% of the backs' third-down work as well as the early downs, so his catches don't depend on game script — a 28-catch pace. No one on this depth chart takes the hurry-up snaps from him.
The Hill math if Henry misses time: Hill backs up the early-down role (the valuable ones). A Henry absence projects Hill to ~100% of weighted opportunities — about 31.6 a game, a top-12 weekly RB by volume — and why he's a STASH, not a cut.
Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap
- 5.310 attLeft end
- 5.217 attLeft tackle
- 3.631 attMiddle
- 6.89 attRight tackle
- 5.618 attRight end
Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.
The right side is the run game's engine: 6.8 yards per carry behind right tackle and 5.6 off right end — 32% of all designed runs go that way. Interior volume (31 attempts) does the clock work at 3.6; the right edge does the damage. When the line's right side sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.
Where Jackson Attacks
Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4
- 14%18.0 YPADeep left
- 7%9.8 YPADeep middle
- 0%no attemptsDeep right
Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards
- 20%9.0 YPAShort left
- 27%10.5 YPAShort middle · Andrews
- 32%7.1 YPAShort right
The deep left is the efficiency engine (18 YPA). Jackson keeps 80% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep left his most explosive zone (18 YPA on 10 attempts). Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.
| Profile | Player | Opportunity (WOPR) | Target share | Snap share | RZ touches | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB1, 82% of RB touchesRB6 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 82% | 6.8%steady | 58%+13 vs W1 | 20 ▲6 · 5 · 9 — leads team | Set & forget | |
The locked-in workhorse. A 100% share of the backs' red-zone work is the RB stat that tracks fantasy points best, and 14 green-zone carries put him at the goal line. He's scoring +4.5 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 20.5 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Zay FlowersWR2WR51 in target share, NFL | 0.38flex range | 16.2%+5.0 vs W1 | 22%steady | 2 ▲0 · – · 2 | Flex | |
The role is arriving before the box score does. His target share has run 25% → 30% over the last 3 games. Volume that is growing this fast gets repriced the week it scores. He's scoring +8.8 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 11.9 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Mark AndrewsTE1TE3 in target share, NFL | 0.48elite for TE | 24.3%steady | 65%−20 vs W1 | 11 · 0 · 0 | Set & forget | |
Volume you can set in the lineup. A 24.3% target share and 9.7 expected points a game, with a 25.5% first-read share; a 17.1% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. Production is running −1.3 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| Rashod BatemanWR1WR40 in target share, NFL | 0.42flex range | 17.6%+10.8 vs W1 | 86%+10 vs W1 | 2 ▲0 · 1 · 1 | Starter | |
A starter's share without the alpha tag. A 17.6% target share and 8.6 expected points a game, with a 23.5% first-read share; a 22.7% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. Production is running +0.6 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Chris MooreWR3WR84 in target share, NFL | 0.27below startable | 8.1%−3.3 vs W1 | 47%+15 vs W1 | 1 ▲0 · 0 · 1 | Volatile | |
The deep-decoy profile. A 27.5-yard aDOT sits past the depth where weekly production turns boom/bust, and a 8.1% target share says he isn't earning volume when he's out there; a 7.8% first-read share means the plays are rarely designed for him. Best-ball ceiling, seasonal-league headache. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Justice HillRB2 · handcuff, 18% of RB touchesRB62 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 18% | 4.1%−4.2 vs W1 | 42%−13 vs W1 | 00 · 0 · 0 | Stash | |
Contingent value, quantified. The 18% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Henry misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Lamar JacksonQB1QB10 in xFP/game, NFL | —every dropback | —the passer | 100%steady | 5 ▲1 · 0 · 4 | Starter | |
A pocket passer's profile. 2 green-zone carries and a 10.2% scramble rate: his points have to come through the air, so his weekly range follows the pass volume (QB10 in expected points). He's scoring +2.0 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 18.8 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs. | ||||||
How to read this table
- Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
- Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
- Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
- Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
- Stash the role behind the role
- WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
- + button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league
Buy low
Zay Flowers
The role is arriving before the box score does. Trade for him this week — not after the two-touchdown game makes it obvious to your league.
- +4snap share pts since W1
- +5.0target share pts since W1
Watch
Chris Moore
Under 10% target share on a flat snap count. One more quiet week and he's droppable in 12-team leagues; an injury above him is the fastest path back.
- 5.0%W3 target share
- 1RZ touches since W1
Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser like Flowers gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.
Explore StatChasers
- Fantasy Football ToolsThe #1 ranked fantasy football toolset.Open
- Advanced Player StatsDeeper numbers on every player in the league.Open
- Strength of ScheduleMatchup difficulty by fantasy position, including the playoff weeks.Open
- Fantasy Points AllowedHow Baltimore's defense performs against QB, RB, WR and TE.Open
Common questions
Who leads the Baltimore Ravens in target share?
Mark Andrews leads the Baltimore Ravens with a 24.3% target share through Week 4, holding steady since Week 1. Rashod Bateman is second at 17.6%.