Ja'Marr Chase 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 26
- Height / weight
- 6'0", 205 lb
- Experience
- 6th season
- Drafted
- 2021 R1, #5
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 18.2
- Pos rank
- WR9
- Rostered
- 99%
Week 4 vs. Jaguars, Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET 18th vs. WRs, neutral
Ja'Marr Chase Rest-of-Season Outlook
Target-heavy WR1 every week
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished WR4 last season at 19.6 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 3 games he's WR9 at 18.2 PPR points per game, against 19.6 over 16 games last season (WR4). He's running behind last season's pace.
Last season he ranked 3rd of 142 in target volume (30.4% target share), 13th of 142 in downfield role (33.4% air-yards share) and 17th of 142 in efficiency (2.30 yards per route run). His points come from his target volume. Joe Burrow is his quarterback.
The next favorable matchup is the Ravens in Week 7 (6th against WRs).
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 16, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Chase still graded as our WR4 in 2025, posting 125 catches on a commanding 185 targets for 1,412 yards and eight scores across 16 games, good for 188.6 fantasy points. The dip in efficiency was telling, though: his EPA per play fell from 0.44 to 0.224 and his success rate slid from 61.7% to 53%, almost entirely a function of unstable quarterback play rather than any decline in his game. His 30.4% target share actually rose, confirming he remains the unquestioned engine of this passing attack.
The blueprint sits one year back, when a healthy Joe Burrow fueled a 276-point, 17-touchdown campaign that finished as our overall WR1. Restore that battery and Chase's red-zone volume and yards-after-catch translate into league-winning weeks again. Consensus already treats him as a top-three overall pick and the position's premier option, and that price is justified. Draft him without hesitation as a foundational WR1 whose only real variable is Burrow's availability.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 142 receivers who played at least six games. Each bar is one receiver, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Target volume
Downfield role
Efficiency
- Average depth of target
- 8.5
- Drop rate
- 2.2%
- Red-zone targets
- 22
- Route participation
- 91.1%
- YAC per reception
- 5.1
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- A soft spotThe Ravens in Week 7 is a top-10 matchup for WRs.Wk 4 JAX, 18thWk 5 MIA, 28thWk 7 BAL, 6thWk 8 TEN, 14th
- Heavy target volume30.4% target share, 3rd of 142 WRs in 2025.
- Downfield role33.4% air-yards share, 13th of 142 WRs in 2025.
Risk
- A tough matchupThe Dolphins in Week 5 (28th) is among the stingiest defenses against WRs.
All Ja'Marr Chase stats & analysis
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Ja'Marr Chase Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Ja'Marr Chase's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Ja'Marr Chase projects as a target-heavy WR1 every week for the rest of the 2026 season: a weekly starter in 12-team PPR, 10-team PPR and half-PPR leagues. His target volume (30.4% target share, 3rd of 142 WRs in 2025) supports that. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Ja'Marr Chase's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Ja'Marr Chase is the WR9 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in WR1 territory, a weekly starter in 10-team PPR leagues.
What is Ja'Marr Chase's projected role going forward?
Ja'Marr Chase is the listed starting WR. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
Will Ja'Marr Chase get more targets?
Ja'Marr Chase's targets are trending up: 10.5 a game over his last two games against 8.3 for the season. His share of the offense is what his fantasy value rides on.
What is Ja'Marr Chase's fantasy football upside?
Ja'Marr Chase's upside: his ceiling this season is 26.5 PPR points (Week 2, WR6), his target volume (30.4% target share, 3rd of 142 WRs in 2025) gives him a weekly floor to build on and the Ravens in Week 7 is a top-10 matchup for WRs.
What could hurt Ja'Marr Chase's fantasy value?
Ja'Marr Chase's risks: the Dolphins in Week 5 is a tough matchup. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Ja'Marr Chase's remaining fantasy schedule?
Favorable: of his next seven games, 3 come against a top-10 matchup for WRs and 1 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.