Start Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is projected for 14.9 PPR points vs 13.2 for Justin Herbert, and faces the 12th-toughest defense against QBs this week.
Updated Oct 30, 7:29 AM ET
| Patrick Mahomes QB · KC | Justin Herbert QB · LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 8, avg of sources) | 14.9 | 13.2 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 11.6 | 10.4 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 16.8 | 16.2 |
| StatChasers projection | 15.4 (QB21) | 14.6 (QB23) |
| Opponent | vs DEN | vs LAR |
| Opponent vs. position | 12th-toughest (16.2 pts/g allowed) | 14th-softest (17.8 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | — | 1% target share (last 3) |
| Position | QB | QB |
| Our call | SIT · Bench | SIT · Bench |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes projects for 14.9 PPR points vs DEN, against 13.2 for Justin Herbert vs LAR: a 1.7-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Patrick Mahomes is projected to score more: 14.9 PPR points to 13.2 for Justin Herbert.
The sources range from 11.6 to 16.8 for Mahomes and from 10.4 to 16.2 for Herbert. The ranges overlap, so Herbert outscoring Mahomes is a realistic result.
Patrick Mahomes is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Mahomes at 11.6 PPR points, against 10.4 for Justin Herbert.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Patrick Mahomes has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Mahomes at 16.8 PPR points, against 16.2 for Justin Herbert.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Patrick Mahomes plays DEN and Justin Herbert plays LAR in Week 8.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Mahomes faces the 12th-toughest defense against QBs and Herbert faces the 14th-softest defense against QBs, so Justin Herbert has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Patrick Mahomes nor Justin Herbert has an injury designation for Week 8.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Patrick Mahomes is projected by 6 of them and Justin Herbert by 6.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.