Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos, Divisional Round 2025
Buffalo Bills
Away
30
Denver Broncos
HomeWon, advanced
33
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 7 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 30 |
| Broncos | 3 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 33 |
BUF 30DEN 33 Final/OT
Passing leader
23.9PPR pts
25/39, 283 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
Top fantasy scorer
Marvin Mims Jr.
23.3PPR pts
8 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
Bills leader
20.3PPR pts
6 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
Defensive playmaker
P.J. Locke
1 INT, 9 TKL
Broncos 33, Bills 30: Denver wins the 2025 Divisional Round in overtime
Denver led 20–10 at halftime, regulation ended 30–30, and the Broncos won it 33–30 in overtime. Buffalo outgained the Broncos 449–349.
The Bills went 10-for-15 on third down and committed five turnovers.
The Broncos' run ended in the Conference Championship, a 10–7 loss to the Patriots.
The two teams meet again in Week 16 of 2026. If you roster anyone from either side, run the start/sit call in Redraft Command and it will weigh your lineup, your opponent and your league scoring, not only the player rankings.
Key advantages
- +4 turnover margin DEN 1 · BUF 5 turnovers
Game Highlights
Official NFL highlights · Opens from YouTube
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Why the Broncos Won
Denver won the turnover battle.
| Bills | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Turnovers | 1 |
| Other team stats | ||
| 449 | Total yards | 349 |
| 5.8 | Yards per play | 5.1 |
| 78 | Plays | 68 |
| 67% | Third-down conversion | 50% |
| 40:58 | Time of possession | 29:18 |
Scoring Summary
The Broncos scored three touchdowns and four field goals; the Bills scored three touchdowns and three field goals.
| Time | Team | Play | BUF | DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter | ||||
| 7:29 | DEN | Wil Lutz 28-yard FG Takes lead | 0 | 3 |
| 0:05 | BUF | Josh Allen → Mecole Hardman Jr., 4-yard TD Takes leadMatt Prater XP | 7 | 3 |
| 2nd quarter | ||||
| 9:33 | DEN | Bo Nix → Frank Crum, 7-yard TD Takes leadWil Lutz XP | 7 | 10 |
| 2:13 | BUF | Matt Prater 33-yard FG Ties game | 10 | 10 |
| 0:22 | DEN | Bo Nix → Lil'Jordan Humphrey, 29-yard TD Takes leadWil Lutz XP | 10 | 17 |
| 0:00 | DEN | Wil Lutz 50-yard FG Extends lead | 10 | 20 |
| 3rd quarter | ||||
| 11:35 | DEN | Wil Lutz 33-yard FG Extends lead | 10 | 23 |
| 6:49 | BUF | Josh Allen → Keon Coleman, 10-yard TDMatt Prater XP | 17 | 23 |
| 4th quarter | ||||
| 13:24 | BUF | Josh Allen → Dalton Kincaid, 14-yard TD Takes leadMatt Prater XP | 24 | 23 |
| 4:11 | BUF | Matt Prater 31-yard FG Extends lead | 27 | 23 |
| 0:55 | DEN | Bo Nix → Marvin Mims Jr., 26-yard TD Takes leadWil Lutz XP | 27 | 30 |
| 0:05 | BUF | Matt Prater 50-yard FG Ties game | 30 | 30 |
| Overtime | ||||
| 4:44 | DEN | Wil Lutz 23-yard FG Game winner | 30 | 33 |
Playoff game: these points don't count in most season-long fantasy leagues.
Fantasy Points vs Expected
Expected points (xFP) are what a player's pass attempts, carries and targets are worth at the league's average rates; the difference is what the player made of them.
- Biggest overperformer+10.1Dalton Kincaid20.3 PTS vs 10.2 xFP
- Biggest underperformer−6.5James Cook III14.1 PTS vs 20.6 xFP
- Highest expected volume28.2 xFPBo Nix25.1 PTS scored
| Player | PTS | xFP | vs xFP | Snap% | Usage | Rte% | Pass att | Car | Car% | Tgt | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo NixDEN · QB | 25.1 | 28.2 | −3.1 | — | 46 att | — | 46 | 12 | 55% | 0 | 0% |
| Josh AllenBUF · QB | 23.9 | 25.1 | −1.2 | — | 39 att | — | 39 | 12 | 33% | 0 | 0% |
| James Cook IIIBUF · RB | 14.1 | 20.6 | −6.5 | — | 67% car | — | 0 | 24 | 67% | 3 | 8% |
| Courtland SuttonDEN · WR | 9.3 | 15.3 | −6.0 | — | 21% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 9 | 21% |
| Khalil ShakirBUF · WR | 14.5 | 15.3 | −0.8 | — | 23% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 9 | 23% |
| RJ HarveyDEN · RB | 11.6 | 14.1 | −2.5 | — | 27% car | — | 0 | 6 | 27% | 6 | 14% |
| Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · WR | 23.3 | 13.6 | +9.7 | — | 19% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 8 | 19% |
| Brandin CooksBUF · WR | 4.0 | 10.2 | −6.2 | — | 15% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 6 | 15% |
| Dalton KincaidBUF · TE | 20.3 | 10.2 | +10.1 | — | 15% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 6 | 15% |
| Dawson KnoxBUF · TE | 6.2 | 8.5 | −2.3 | — | 13% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5 | 13% |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN · WR | 11.3 | 8.5 | +2.8 | — | 12% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5 | 12% |
| Curtis SamuelBUF · WR | 1.2 | 5.1 | −3.9 | — | 8% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3 | 8% |
| Evan EngramDEN · TE | 1.7 | 5.1 | −3.4 | — | 7% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3 | 7% |
| Keon ColemanBUF · WR | 8.0 | 5.1 | +2.9 | — | 8% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3 | 8% |
| Pat BryantDEN · WR | 6.2 | 5.1 | +1.1 | — | 7% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3 | 7% |
| Jaleel McLaughlinDEN · RB | 2.1 | 4.3 | −2.2 | — | 18% car | — | 0 | 4 | 18% | 1 | 2% |
| Adam TrautmanDEN · TE | 0.0 | 3.4 | −3.4 | — | 5% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2 | 5% |
| Mecole Hardman Jr.BUF · WR | 7.4 | 3.4 | +4.0 | — | 5% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2 | 5% |
| Ray DavisBUF · RB | 5.3 | 3.4 | +1.9 | — | 5% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2 | 5% |
| Tyler BadieDEN · RB | 1.7 | 3.4 | −1.7 | — | 5% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2 | 5% |
| Adam PrenticeDEN · RB | 0.0 | 1.7 | −1.7 | — | 2% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 2% |
| Frank CrumDEN · — | 7.7 | 1.7 | +6.0 | — | 2% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 2% |
| Nate AdkinsDEN · TE | 1.1 | 1.7 | −0.6 | — | 2% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 2% |
Team totals: Bills 39 targets and 36 carries; Broncos 42 targets and 22 carries. Shares are from the box score. Snap counts aren't available for this game. Route counts, air yards and red-zone touches appear when the tracking feed is connected. League-average rates from the 2025 season: 1.70 PPR points per target (67% catch rate), 0.65 per carry and 0.44 per pass attempt. They don't adjust for field position or target depth.
Fantasy Verdicts
Josh Allen
25 of 39 passing for 283 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions; 12 carries for 66 yards.
Verdict: The points matched the role, 25.1 expected.
Bo Nix
26 of 46 passing for 279 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception; 12 carries for 29 yards.
Verdict: The points matched the role, 28.2 expected.
Best score since Week 15.
James Cook III Volume, no payoff
3 targets (8% of the team's), 2 catches for 24 yards; 24 carries (67% of the team's) for 117 yards.
Verdict: The role was there, worth 20.6 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.
Khalil Shakir
9 targets (23% of the team's), 7 catches for 75 yards.
Verdict: The points matched the role, 15.3 expected.
Best score since Week 12.
Courtland Sutton Unlucky
9 targets (21% of the team's), 4 catches for 53 yards.
Verdict: The role was there, worth 15.3 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.
RJ Harvey
6 targets (14% of the team's), 5 catches for 46 yards; 6 carries (27% of the team's) for 20 yards.
Verdict: The points matched the role, 14.1 expected.
A touchdown in 5 of the last 8 games.
Marvin Mims Jr. Ran hot
8 targets (19% of the team's), 8 catches for 93 yards and 1 touchdown.
Verdict: The opportunities were worth 13.6 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.
Season high in targets (8). Best fantasy game of the season.
Brandin Cooks Unlucky
6 targets (15% of the team's), 2 catches for 20 yards.
Verdict: The role was there, worth 10.2 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.
Fantasy Matchups
Fantasy points allowed per game by position, 2025 through Week 18.
| Points allowed to | Bills D | Broncos D |
|---|---|---|
| QBs | 13.6 | 14.8 |
| RBs | 24.4 | 17.0 |
| WRs | 25.9 | 26.3 |
| TEs | 7.5 | 13.7 |
Regular season, summed from each game's box score and scored with this page's rules.
How the Game Swung
Denver opened at 54% win probability, fell as low as 1%, then rallied to win.
Broncos win probability
Key Swings
- +26Nix → Humphrey, 29-yd TD53% → 79%Q2 0:22
- −38Allen → Kincaid, 14-yd TD84% → 46%Q4 13:24
- +96Nix → Mims, 26-yd TD1% → 96%Q4 0:55
- −50Prater 50-yd FG>99% → 50%Q4 0:05
- +50Lutz 23-yd FG50% → >99%OT 4:44
Swing in Broncos win probability, in points
Play Calling and Possessions
| Buffalo Bills | Measure | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 78 | Plays | 68 |
| 54% | Pass rate | 68% |
| 6.3 | Yds / dropback | 6.1 |
| 5.1 | Yds / carry | 3.2 |
| 10/15 | Third downs | 8/16 |
Efficiency edge Denver ran 10 fewer plays than Buffalo.
- Top targets
- BUF Shakir 23% · Cooks 15% · Kincaid 15%
- DEN Sutton 21% · Mims 19% · Harvey 14%
Possession Results
| Result | BUF | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Touchdowns | 3 | 3 |
| Field goals | 3 | 4 |
| Punts | 0 | 4 |
| Turnovers | 5 | 1 |
DEN turnover edge: +4
- The Broncos opened the scoring on their first possession, a 14-play, 64-yard drive that ended in a field goal.
All 24 possessions, drive by drive
| Team | Start | Plays | Yards | Time | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 64 | 7:31 | Field goal |
| BUF | Q1 7:29 | 12 | 67 | 7:24 | Touchdown |
| DEN | Q1 0:05 | 3 | 0 | 0:23 | Punt |
| BUF | Q2 14:42 | 3 | 32 | 1:22 | Fumble |
| DEN | Q2 13:20 | 8 | 69 | 3:47 | Touchdown |
| BUF | Q2 9:33 | 13 | 69 | 7:20 | Field goal |
| DEN | Q2 2:13 | 11 | 70 | 1:51 | Touchdown |
| BUF | Q2 0:22 | 1 | 4 | 0:20 | Fumble |
| DEN | Q2 0:02 | 1 | 0 | 0:02 | Field goal |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 2 | -10 | 0:52 | Fumble |
| DEN | Q3 14:08 | 4 | 2 | 2:33 | Field goal |
| BUF | Q3 11:35 | 9 | 73 | 4:46 | Touchdown |
| DEN | Q3 6:49 | 3 | 5 | 0:59 | Interception |
| BUF | Q3 5:50 | 2 | -4 | 0:55 | Interception |
| DEN | Q3 4:55 | 6 | 22 | 2:25 | Punt |
| BUF | Q3 2:30 | 9 | 85 | 4:06 | Touchdown |
| DEN | Q4 13:24 | 3 | 3 | 1:34 | Punt |
| BUF | Q4 11:50 | 13 | 68 | 7:39 | Field goal |
| DEN | Q4 4:11 | 8 | 73 | 3:16 | Touchdown |
| BUF | Q4 0:55 | 8 | 41 | 0:50 | Field goal |
| DEN | Q4 0:05 | 1 | -1 | 0:05 | End of half |
| DEN | OT 15:00 | 4 | 10 | 1:50 | Punt |
| BUF | OT 13:10 | 9 | 29 | 5:24 | Interception |
| DEN | OT 7:46 | 6 | 75 | 3:02 | Field goal |
About these numbers
Possessions that ended with the clock running out at the half or the end of the game aren't counted.
Personnel groupings, average depth of target and pass rate over expected appear when the tracking feed is connected.
Bills vs Broncos Head-to-Head
The Bills and Broncos first met in 1960 and have played 43 times since.
- All-time series
- 24–18–1Bills lead, 43 meetings since 1960
- Postseason
- 2–1Bills won in 1991 and 2024; Broncos won in 2025
- Largest Bills win
- 48–192020
- Largest Broncos win
- 37–71984
Since 2021
2–1 Broncos lead
3 meetings since the 2021 season, regular season and playoffs.
Oldest to newest. DEN = Broncos win, BUF = Bills win, outlined = this game.
2026 Meetings
- Week 16 Bills at Broncos Upcoming
Recent Meetings
- 2025 Divisional Round Bills at Broncos DEN 33 BUF 30 DEN W
- 2024 Wild Card Broncos at Bills, 2024 Wild Card recap BUF 31 DEN 7 BUF W
- 2023 Wk 10 Broncos at Bills, 2023 Wk 10 recap DEN 24 BUF 22 DEN W
Season to Date (Through Week 18)
The 2025 regular season, from each game's box score.
| Bills | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 12-5 | Record | 14-3 |
| 28.3 | Points per game | 23.6 |
| 376.3 | Yards per game | 342.6 |
| 5.9 | Yards per play | 5.3 |
| 21.5 | Points allowed per game | 18.3 |
| 293.1 | Yards allowed per game | 278.2 |
Bills vs Broncos Odds and Results
How this game finished against the betting lines.
- Spread
- DEN −1.5Broncos covered by 1.5
- Total
- 45.5Over: 63 points scored (by 17.5)
Expected vs Actual Scoring
| Team | Implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 23.5 | 33 | +9.5 |
| Bills | 22.0 | 30 | +8.0 |
Both offenses beat the market's expectation, and the Fantasy tab shows who cashed in.
Betting Trends
Each team's 2025 season through this game. Over/under is overs first.
Buffalo Bills
- Against the spread
- 4–4
- Over/under
- 5–3
- ATS as favorite
- 3–3
- ATS as underdog
- 1–1
- ATS on the road
- 3–2
Denver Broncos
- Against the spread
- 3–4
- Over/under
- 4–2
- ATS as favorite
- 2–4
- ATS as underdog
- 1–0
- ATS at home
- 3–1
Lines: ESPN's consensus, captured at kickoff. Individual sportsbooks varied.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Betting availability depends on your state.
Bills vs Broncos Fantasy Outlook for 2026
One meeting is left on the 2026 schedule: Week 16 in Denver. Here's how to decide who to play in your league.
- Start/Sit ToolShould your Bills or Broncos player start in Week 16? Compare the decision against your other options.
- Fantasy Football ProjectionsSee the latest weekly and rest-of-season projections for Bills and Broncos players.
- Fantasy Points Allowed by PositionHow the Bills and Broncos defenses have treated QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs.
- Strength of ScheduleWhere this matchup falls in each team's fantasy playoff run.
- Redraft CommandConnect your league for personalized lineup, trade and roster advice.
Keep Exploring
2025 Game Logs for Players in This Game
Bills vs Broncos Game FAQ
Who won the 2025 Bills vs Broncos Divisional Round game?
The Denver Broncos beat the Buffalo Bills 33–30 in the Divisional Round of the 2025 playoffs. The game was played at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO, on January 17, 2026. See the Broncos' 2025 schedule.
What was the final score of Bills vs Broncos?
The final score was Broncos 33, Bills 30 in overtime. The Broncos led 20–10 at halftime, and the second half went Bills 20, Broncos 10 before overtime.
What happened in the Bills vs Broncos game?
Denver led 20–10 at halftime, regulation ended 30–30, and the Broncos won it 33–30 in overtime. Buffalo outgained the Broncos 449–349. The Bills committed 5 turnovers, the Broncos 1.
What was the game-winning score in Bills vs Broncos?
Wil Lutz's 23-yard field goal with 4:44 left in the overtime gave the Broncos a 33–30 lead they never gave up. It was the final score of the game.
How did the Broncos come back to beat the Bills?
The Broncos' chances of winning fell as low as 1% in the fourth quarter. Bo Nix's 26-yard touchdown pass to Marvin Mims Jr. in the fourth quarter was the biggest swing of the game. Wil Lutz's 23-yard field goal then put them ahead for good.
Which team won the turnover battle in Bills vs Broncos?
The Broncos won the turnover battle 5–1: the Bills gave the ball away 5 times and the Broncos 1 time. The Broncos won the game.
What was the turning point of Bills vs Broncos?
Bo Nix's 26-yard touchdown pass to Marvin Mims Jr. with 0:55 left in the fourth quarter was the biggest swing of the game, moving the Broncos' win probability from 1% to 96%.
What is the all-time Bills vs Broncos record?
The Bills lead the all-time series 24–18–1 across 43 meetings since 1960, including a 2–1 record in the postseason.
When did the Bills and Broncos last play before this game?
Before the 2025 Divisional Round, they last met in the 2024 playoffs on January 12, 2025, when the Bills beat the Broncos 31–7.
Have the Bills and Broncos met in the playoffs?
Yes, 3 times, most recently in the 2025 playoffs. The Bills are 2–1 against the Broncos in the postseason.
What is the Bills vs Broncos record since 2021?
The Broncos lead 2–1 across 3 meetings since the 2021 season, including this game.
What was the closing spread for Bills vs Broncos?
The consensus closing spread at kickoff was Broncos −1.5, making the Denver Broncos 1.5-point favorites, with a closing total of 45.5. That implied about 23.5 points for the Broncos and 22.0 for the Bills.
Did Bills vs Broncos go over or under the total?
The game went over. The consensus closing total was 45.5, and the teams combined for 63 points, 17.5 over the number.
Who covered the spread in Bills vs Broncos?
The Broncos covered by 1.5 against the closing line of Broncos −1.5. The final margin was 3 points.