New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos, Conference Championship 2025
New England Patriots
AwayWon, advanced
10
Denver Broncos
Home
7
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| Broncos | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
NE 10DEN 7 Final
Passing leader
8.6PPR pts
17/31, 133 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
Top fantasy scorer
10.7PPR pts
3 REC, 17 YDS, 1 TD
Broncos leader
Marvin Mims Jr.
10.2PPR pts
4 REC, 62 YDS
Defensive playmaker
Christian Gonzalez
1 INT, 1 SACK, 6 TKL
Patriots 10, Broncos 7: New England holds off Denver in the 2025 Conference Championship
New England broke a 7–7 halftime tie, outscoring Denver 3–0 after the break to win 10–7. The Patriots finished with a narrow 206–181 edge in total offense and averaged 3.2 yards per play.
The gap showed up everywhere. The Broncos went 4-for-14 on third down and committed two turnovers, while the Patriots kept the ball for 33:09 and finished without a giveaway.
The Patriots' run ended in the Super Bowl, a 29–13 loss to the Seahawks.
The two teams meet again in Week 17 of 2026. If you roster anyone from either side, run the start/sit call in Redraft Command and it will weigh your lineup, your opponent and your league scoring, not only the player rankings.
Key advantages
- +0.1 yards/play NE 3.2 · DEN 3.1
- +2 turnover margin NE 0 turnovers
- +25 total yards NE 206 · DEN 181
Game Highlights
Official NFL highlights · Opens from YouTube
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Why the Patriots Won
New England won the efficiency, turnover, third-down, and time of possession battles.
| Patriots | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 3.2 | Yards per play | 3.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 206 | Total yards | 181 |
| Other team stats | ||
| 64 | Plays | 58 |
| 33% | Third-down conversion | 29% |
| 33:09 | Time of possession | 26:51 |
Scoring Summary
The Patriots scored one touchdown and one field goal; the Broncos scored one touchdown.
| Time | Team | Play | NE | DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter | ||||
| 10:19 | DEN | Jarrett Stidham → Courtland Sutton, 6-yard TD Takes leadWil Lutz XP | 0 | 7 |
| 2nd quarter | ||||
| 2:10 | NE | Drake Maye 6-yard TD run Ties gameAndy Borregales XP | 7 | 7 |
| 3rd quarter | ||||
| 5:29 | NE | Andy Borregales 23-yard FG Takes lead | 10 | 7 |
| 4th quarter | ||||
| No scoring | ||||
Playoff game: these points don't count in most season-long fantasy leagues.
Fantasy Points vs Expected
Expected points (xFP) are what a player's pass attempts, carries and targets are worth at the league's average rates; the difference is what the player made of them.
- Biggest overperformer+3.7Mack Hollins7.1 PTS vs 3.4 xFP
- Biggest underperformer−12.4Rhamondre Stevenson7.1 PTS vs 19.5 xFP
- Highest expected volume19.5 xFPRhamondre Stevenson7.1 PTS scored
| Player | PTS | xFP | vs xFP | Snap% | Usage | Rte% | Pass att | Car | Car% | Tgt | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre StevensonNE · RB | 7.1 | 19.5 | −12.4 | — | 66% car | — | 0 | 25 | 66% | 2 | 10% |
| RJ HarveyDEN · RB | 9.9 | 18.6 | −8.7 | — | 54% car | — | 0 | 13 | 54% | 6 | 22% |
| Jarrett StidhamDEN · QB | 8.6 | 16.3 | −7.7 | — | 31 att | — | 31 | 4 | 17% | 0 | 0% |
| Drake MayeNE · QB | 15.9 | 15.8 | +0.1 | — | 21 att | — | 21 | 10 | 26% | 0 | 0% |
| Kayshon BoutteNE · WR | 1.6 | 10.2 | −8.6 | — | 30% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 6 | 30% |
| Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · WR | 10.2 | 10.2 | 0.0 | — | 22% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 6 | 22% |
| Stefon DiggsNE · WR | 6.7 | 10.2 | −3.5 | — | 30% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 6 | 30% |
| Courtland SuttonDEN · WR | 10.7 | 8.5 | +2.2 | — | 19% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5 | 19% |
| Jaleel McLaughlinDEN · RB | 2.3 | 6.0 | −3.7 | — | 17% car | — | 0 | 4 | 17% | 2 | 7% |
| Evan EngramDEN · TE | 3.9 | 5.1 | −1.2 | — | 11% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3 | 11% |
| Hunter HenryNE · TE | 3.2 | 5.1 | −1.9 | — | 15% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3 | 15% |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN · WR | 1.5 | 5.1 | −3.6 | — | 11% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3 | 11% |
| Mack HollinsNE · WR | 7.1 | 3.4 | +3.7 | — | 10% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2 | 10% |
| Pat BryantDEN · WR | 1.3 | 2.4 | −1.1 | — | 4% car | — | 0 | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4% |
| TreVeyon HendersonNE · RB | 0.5 | 1.9 | −1.4 | — | 8% car | — | 0 | 3 | 8% | 0 | 0% |
| DeMario DouglasNE · WR | 0.0 | 1.7 | −1.7 | — | 5% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 5% |
| Elijah MooreDEN · WR | 1.4 | 1.7 | −0.3 | — | 4% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 4% |
| Adam PrenticeDEN · RB | 0.3 | 0.6 | −0.3 | — | 4% car | — | 0 | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0% |
| Tyler BadieDEN · RB | 0.4 | 0.6 | −0.2 | — | 4% car | — | 0 | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0% |
Team totals: Patriots 20 targets and 38 carries; Broncos 27 targets and 24 carries. Shares are from the box score. Snap counts aren't available for this game. Route counts, air yards and red-zone touches appear when the tracking feed is connected. League-average rates from the 2025 season: 1.70 PPR points per target (67% catch rate), 0.65 per carry and 0.44 per pass attempt. They don't adjust for field position or target depth.
Fantasy Verdicts
Drake Maye
10 of 21 passing for 86 yards; 10 carries for 65 yards and 1 touchdown.
Verdict: The points matched the role, 15.8 expected.
Jarrett Stidham Unlucky
17 of 31 passing for 133 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception; 4 carries for 23 yards.
Verdict: The role was there, worth 16.3 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.
Start/Sit: Jarrett Stidham →Rhamondre Stevenson Volume, no payoff
2 targets (10% of the team's), 0 catches for 0 yards; 25 carries (66% of the team's) for 71 yards.
Verdict: The role was there, worth 19.5 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.
Season high in carries (25). Fewest points since Week 12.
Kayshon Boutte Volume, no payoff
6 targets (30% of the team's), 1 catch for 6 yards.
Verdict: The role was there, worth 10.2 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.
Fewest points since Week 9.
RJ Harvey Unlucky
6 targets (22% of the team's), 4 catches for 22 yards; 13 carries (54% of the team's) for 37 yards.
Verdict: The role was there, worth 18.6 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.
A touchdown in 5 of the last 8 games.
Marvin Mims Jr.
6 targets (22% of the team's), 4 catches for 62 yards.
Verdict: The points matched the role, 10.2 expected.
Best score since Week 7.
Fantasy Matchups
Fantasy points allowed per game by position, 2025 through Week 18.
| Points allowed to | Patriots D | Broncos D |
|---|---|---|
| QBs | 15.2 | 14.8 |
| RBs | 19.0 | 17.0 |
| WRs | 28.6 | 26.3 |
| TEs | 13.8 | 13.7 |
Regular season, summed from each game's box score and scored with this page's rules.
How the Game Swung
Denver opened at 40% win probability and fell below 2% in the fourth quarter.
Broncos win probability
Key Swings
- +21Stidham → Sutton, 6-yd TD40% → 61%Q1 10:19
- −27Maye 6-yd TD run70% → 42%Q2 2:10
- −14Borregales 23-yd FG44% → 30%Q3 5:29
Swing in Broncos win probability, in points
Play Calling and Possessions
| New England Patriots | Measure | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 64 | Plays | 58 |
| 41% | Pass rate | 59% |
| 2.5 | Yds / dropback | 3.0 |
| 3.7 | Yds / carry | 3.3 |
| 6/18 | Third downs | 4/14 |
Efficiency edge New England ran 6 more plays than Denver.
- Top targets
- NE Boutte 30% · Diggs 30% · Henry 15%
- DEN Mims 22% · Harvey 22% · Sutton 19%
Possession Results
| Result | NE | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Field goals | 1 | 0 |
| Punts | 8 | 6 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Turnovers on downs | 0 | 1 |
| Missed field goals | 2 | 2 |
NE turnover edge: +2
- The Broncos opened the scoring on their second possession, a 5-play, 59-yard drive that ended in a touchdown.
All 25 possessions, drive by drive
| Team | Start | Plays | Yards | Time | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | 1:30 | Punt |
| NE | Q1 13:30 | 3 | 6 | 1:30 | Punt |
| DEN | Q1 12:00 | 5 | 59 | 1:41 | Touchdown |
| NE | Q1 10:19 | 6 | 11 | 3:46 | Punt |
| DEN | Q1 6:33 | 7 | 22 | 4:13 | Punt |
| NE | Q1 2:20 | 3 | -5 | 1:26 | Punt |
| DEN | Q1 0:54 | 11 | 43 | 6:32 | Downs |
| NE | Q2 9:22 | 6 | 24 | 3:32 | Punt |
| DEN | Q2 5:50 | 6 | -5 | 2:58 | Fumble |
| NE | Q2 2:52 | 2 | 12 | 0:42 | Touchdown |
| DEN | Q2 2:10 | 5 | 14 | 0:35 | Punt |
| NE | Q2 1:35 | 3 | 8 | 0:47 | Punt |
| DEN | Q2 0:48 | 5 | 15 | 0:28 | Missed FG |
| NE | Q2 0:20 | 4 | 11 | 0:20 | Missed FG |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 16 | 64 | 9:31 | Field goal |
| DEN | Q3 5:29 | 3 | 6 | 1:39 | Punt |
| NE | Q3 3:50 | 8 | 51 | 3:39 | Missed FG |
| DEN | Q3 0:11 | 3 | 3 | 1:00 | Punt |
| NE | Q4 14:11 | 4 | 10 | 2:42 | Punt |
| DEN | Q4 11:29 | 6 | 17 | 3:08 | Punt |
| NE | Q4 8:21 | 3 | -1 | 1:26 | Punt |
| DEN | Q4 6:55 | 4 | 5 | 2:13 | Missed FG |
| NE | Q4 4:42 | 3 | 1 | 1:37 | Punt |
| DEN | Q4 3:05 | 2 | 1 | 0:54 | Interception |
| NE | Q4 2:11 | 6 | 14 | 2:11 | End of game |
About these numbers
Possessions that ended with the clock running out at the half or the end of the game aren't counted.
Personnel groupings, average depth of target and pass rate over expected appear when the tracking feed is connected.
Patriots vs Broncos Head-to-Head
The Patriots and Broncos first met in 1960 and have played 56 times since.
- All-time series
- 31–25Broncos lead, 56 meetings since 1960
- Postseason
- 4–2Split 4–2
- Largest Patriots win
- 45–102011
- Largest Broncos win
- 45–101979
Since 2021
2–0 Patriots lead
2 meetings since the 2021 season, regular season and playoffs.
Oldest to newest. P = Patriots win, B = Broncos win, outlined = this game.
2026 Meetings
- Week 17 Broncos at Patriots Upcoming
Recent Meetings
- 2025 Conference Championship Patriots at Broncos NE 10 DEN 7 NE W
- 2023 Wk 16 Patriots at Broncos, 2023 Wk 16 recap NE 26 DEN 23 NE W
Season to Date (Through Week 18)
The 2025 regular season, from each game's box score.
| Patriots | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 14-3 | Record | 14-3 |
| 28.8 | Points per game | 23.6 |
| 379.4 | Yards per game | 342.6 |
| 6.2 | Yards per play | 5.3 |
| 18.8 | Points allowed per game | 18.3 |
| 295.2 | Yards allowed per game | 278.2 |
Patriots vs Broncos Odds and Results
How this game finished against the betting lines.
- Spread
- NE −3.5Patriots failed to cover by 0.5
- Total
- 43.5Under: 17 points scored (by 26.5)
Expected vs Actual Scoring
| Team | Implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 23.5 | 10 | −13.5 |
| Broncos | 20.0 | 7 | −13.0 |
Both offenses finished under the market's expectation, which matches the low fantasy output in the Fantasy tab.
Betting Trends
Each team's 2025 season through this game. Over/under is overs first.
New England Patriots
- Against the spread
- 6–2
- Over/under
- 6–2
- ATS as favorite
- 5–1
- ATS as underdog
- 1–1
- ATS on the road
- 2–1
Denver Broncos
- Against the spread
- 4–4
- Over/under
- 4–3
- ATS as favorite
- 2–4
- ATS as underdog
- 2–0
- ATS at home
- 4–1
Lines: ESPN's consensus, captured at kickoff. Individual sportsbooks varied.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Betting availability depends on your state.
Patriots vs Broncos Fantasy Outlook for 2026
One meeting is left on the 2026 schedule: Week 17 in New England. Here's how to decide who to play in your league.
- Start/Sit ToolShould your Patriots or Broncos player start in Week 17? Compare the decision against your other options.
- Fantasy Football ProjectionsSee the latest weekly and rest-of-season projections for Patriots and Broncos players.
- Fantasy Points Allowed by PositionHow the Patriots and Broncos defenses have treated QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs.
- Strength of ScheduleWhere this matchup falls in each team's fantasy playoff run.
- Redraft CommandConnect your league for personalized lineup, trade and roster advice.
Keep Exploring
2025 Game Logs for Players in This Game
Patriots vs Broncos Game FAQ
Who won the 2025 Patriots vs Broncos Conference Championship game?
The New England Patriots beat the Denver Broncos 10–7 in the Conference Championship of the 2025 playoffs. The game was played at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO, on January 25, 2026. See the Patriots' 2025 schedule.
What was the final score of Patriots vs Broncos?
The final score was Patriots 10, Broncos 7. The teams were tied 7–7 at halftime, and the second half went Patriots 3, Broncos 0.
What happened in the Patriots vs Broncos game?
New England broke a 7–7 halftime tie, outscoring Denver 3–0 after the break to win 10–7. The Patriots finished with a narrow 206–181 edge in total offense and averaged 3.2 yards per play. The Broncos committed 2 turnovers, the Patriots none.
How did the Patriots beat the Broncos?
The Patriots beat the Broncos 10–7 because they averaged 3.2 yards per play to 3.1, won the turnover battle 2–0, and outgained them 206–181.
Which team won the turnover battle in Patriots vs Broncos?
The Patriots won the turnover battle 2–0: the Broncos gave the ball away 2 times and the Patriots not at all. The Patriots won the game.
What was the turning point of Patriots vs Broncos?
Drake Maye's 6-yard touchdown run with 2:10 left in the second quarter was the biggest swing of the game, moving the Broncos' win probability from 70% to 42%.
What is the all-time Patriots vs Broncos record?
The Broncos lead the all-time series 31–25 across 56 meetings since 1960, including a 4–2 record in the postseason.
When did the Patriots and Broncos last play before this game?
Before the 2025 Conference Championship round, they last met in the 2023 season on December 24, 2023, when the Patriots beat the Broncos 26–23.
Have the Patriots and Broncos met in the playoffs?
Yes, 6 times, most recently in the 2025 playoffs. The Patriots are 2–4 against the Broncos in the postseason.
What is the Patriots vs Broncos record since 2021?
The Patriots lead 2–0 across 2 meetings since the 2021 season, including this game.
What was the closing spread for Patriots vs Broncos?
The consensus closing spread at kickoff was Patriots −3.5, making the New England Patriots 3.5-point favorites, with a closing total of 43.5. That implied about 23.5 points for the Patriots and 20.0 for the Broncos.
Did Patriots vs Broncos go over or under the total?
The game went under. The consensus closing total was 43.5, and the teams combined for 17 points, 26.5 under the number.
Who covered the spread in Patriots vs Broncos?
The Broncos covered as 3.5-point underdogs against the closing line of Patriots −3.5. The final margin was 3 points.