Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars, Wild Card 2025
Buffalo Bills
AwayWon, advanced
27
Jacksonville Jaguars
Home
24
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 3 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 27 |
| Jaguars | 0 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 24 |
BUF 27JAX 24 Final
Passing leader
30.2PPR pts
28/35, 273 YDS, 1 TD, 2 RUSH TD
Top fantasy scorer
23.9PPR pts
7 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
Jaguars leader
Travis Etienne Jr.
22.6PPR pts
10 ATT, 67 YDS, 5 REC, 49 REC YDS, 1 REC TD
Defensive playmaker
Shaq Thompson
1 INT, 8 TKL
Bills 27, Jaguars 24: Buffalo holds off Jacksonville in the 2025 Wild Card
Buffalo led 10–7 at halftime to win 27–24. Jacksonville outgained the Bills 359–340.
The Jaguars went 5-for-9 on third down and committed two turnovers, while the Bills kept the ball for 33:49.
The Bills' run ended in the Divisional Round, a 33–30 loss to the Broncos.
Key advantages
- +1 turnover margin BUF 1 · JAX 2 turnovers
- +7:38 time of possession BUF 33:49 · JAX 26:11
Game Highlights
Official NFL highlights · Opens from YouTube
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Why the Bills Won
Buffalo won the turnover and time of possession battles.
| Bills | Stat | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 33:49 | Time of possession | 26:11 |
| Other team stats | ||
| 340 | Total yards | 359 |
| 5.5 | Yards per play | 6.6 |
| 62 | Plays | 54 |
| 50% | Third-down conversion | 56% |
Scoring Summary
The Bills scored three touchdowns and two field goals; the Jaguars scored three touchdowns and one field goal.
| Time | Team | Play | BUF | JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter | ||||
| 2:54 | BUF | Matt Prater 50-yard FG Takes lead | 3 | 0 |
| 2nd quarter | ||||
| 14:14 | JAX | Trevor Lawrence → Brian Thomas Jr., 3-yard TD Takes leadCam Little XP | 3 | 7 |
| 5:37 | BUF | Josh Allen 2-yard TD run Takes leadMatt Prater XP | 10 | 7 |
| 3rd quarter | ||||
| 8:12 | BUF | Matt Prater 47-yard FG Extends lead | 13 | 7 |
| 5:47 | JAX | Cam Little 43-yard FG | 13 | 10 |
| 4th quarter | ||||
| 12:55 | JAX | Trevor Lawrence → Parker Washington, 6-yard TD Takes leadCam Little XP | 13 | 17 |
| 8:56 | BUF | Josh Allen → Dalton Kincaid, 15-yard TD Takes leadMatt Prater XP | 20 | 17 |
| 4:03 | JAX | Trevor Lawrence → Travis Etienne Jr., 14-yard TD Takes leadCam Little XP | 20 | 24 |
| 1:04 | BUF | Josh Allen 1-yard TD run Game winnerMatt Prater XP | 27 | 24 |
Playoff game: these points don't count in most season-long fantasy leagues.
Fantasy Points vs Expected
Expected points (xFP) are what a player's pass attempts, carries and targets are worth at the league's average rates; the difference is what the player made of them.
- Biggest overperformer+7.6Josh Allen30.2 PTS vs 22.6 xFP
- Biggest underperformer−7.7James Cook III7.1 PTS vs 14.8 xFP
- Highest expected volume22.6 xFPJosh Allen30.2 PTS scored
| Player | PTS | xFP | vs xFP | Snap% | Usage | Rte% | Pass att | Car | Car% | Tgt | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenBUF · QB | 30.2 | 22.6 | +7.6 | — | 35 att | — | 35 | 11 | 42% | 0 | 0% |
| Parker WashingtonJAX · WR | 23.9 | 21.7 | +2.2 | — | 40% tgt | — | 0 | 2 | 9% | 12 | 40% |
| Khalil ShakirBUF · WR | 20.2 | 20.5 | −0.3 | — | 34% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 12 | 34% |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB | 21.4 | 17.2 | +4.2 | — | 30 att | — | 30 | 6 | 26% | 0 | 0% |
| Travis Etienne Jr.JAX · RB | 22.6 | 15.0 | +7.6 | — | 43% car | — | 0 | 10 | 43% | 5 | 17% |
| James Cook IIIBUF · RB | 7.1 | 14.8 | −7.7 | — | 58% car | — | 0 | 15 | 58% | 3 | 9% |
| Brandin CooksBUF · WR | 8.8 | 8.5 | +0.3 | — | 14% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5 | 14% |
| Brenton StrangeJAX · TE | 2.9 | 8.5 | −5.6 | — | 17% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5 | 17% |
| Dalton KincaidBUF · TE | 11.8 | 8.5 | +3.3 | — | 14% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5 | 14% |
| Jakobi MeyersJAX · WR | 2.2 | 6.8 | −4.6 | — | 13% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 4 | 13% |
| Dawson KnoxBUF · TE | 6.0 | 5.1 | +0.9 | — | 9% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3 | 9% |
| Gabe DavisBUF · WR | 3.4 | 5.1 | −1.7 | — | 9% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3 | 9% |
| Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · WR | 10.1 | 3.4 | +6.7 | — | 7% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2 | 7% |
| Tyrell ShaversBUF · WR | 2.4 | 3.4 | −1.0 | — | 6% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2 | 6% |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX · RB | 5.1 | 2.6 | +2.5 | — | 17% car | — | 0 | 4 | 17% | 0 | 0% |
| LeQuint Allen Jr.JAX · RB | 2.2 | 2.4 | −0.2 | — | 4% car | — | 0 | 1 | 4% | 1 | 3% |
| Frank Gore Jr.BUF · — | 1.6 | 1.7 | −0.1 | — | 3% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 3% |
| Keon ColemanBUF · WR | 4.6 | 1.7 | +2.9 | — | 3% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 3% |
| Tim PatrickJAX · WR | 0.0 | 1.7 | −1.7 | — | 3% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 3% |
Team totals: Bills 35 targets and 26 carries; Jaguars 30 targets and 23 carries. Shares are from the box score. Snap counts aren't available for this game. Route counts, air yards and red-zone touches appear when the tracking feed is connected. League-average rates from the 2025 season: 1.70 PPR points per target (67% catch rate), 0.65 per carry and 0.44 per pass attempt. They don't adjust for field position or target depth.
Fantasy Verdicts
Josh Allen Ran hot
28 of 35 passing for 273 yards, 1 touchdown; 11 carries for 33 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Verdict: The opportunities were worth 22.6 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.
Best score since Week 14.
Trevor Lawrence
18 of 30 passing for 207 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions; 6 carries for 31 yards.
Verdict: The points matched the role, 17.2 expected.
Fewest points since Week 14.
Khalil Shakir Volume, no payoff
12 targets (34% of the team's), 12 catches for 82 yards.
Verdict: The points matched the role, 20.5 expected.
Season high in targets (12). Best score since Week 8.
James Cook III Unlucky
3 targets (9% of the team's), 2 catches for 5 yards; 15 carries (58% of the team's) for 46 yards.
Verdict: The role was there, worth 14.8 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.
Parker Washington Strong role
12 targets (40% of the team's), 7 catches for 107 yards and 1 touchdown; 2 carries (9% of the team's) for 2 yards.
Verdict: The points matched the role, 21.7 expected.
Season high in targets (12).
Travis Etienne Jr. Ran hot
5 targets (17% of the team's), 5 catches for 49 yards and 1 touchdown; 10 carries (43% of the team's) for 67 yards.
Verdict: The opportunities were worth 15.0 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.
Best score since Week 15. A touchdown in 5 of the last 8 games.
Brenton Strange Unlucky
5 targets (17% of the team's), 2 catches for 9 yards.
Verdict: The role was there, worth 8.5 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.
Lowest-scoring game of the season.
Brian Thomas Jr. Ran hot
2 targets (7% of the team's), 2 catches for 21 yards and 1 touchdown.
Verdict: The opportunities were worth 3.4 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.
Best score since Week 15.
Fantasy Matchups
Fantasy points allowed per game by position, 2025 through Week 18.
| Points allowed to | Bills D | Jaguars D |
|---|---|---|
| QBs | 13.6 | 16.9 |
| RBs | 24.4 | 17.7 |
| WRs | 25.9 | 30.4 |
| TEs | 7.5 | 14.8 |
Regular season, summed from each game's box score and scored with this page's rules.
How the Game Swung
Jacksonville opened at 54% win probability, climbed as high as 99%, then lost.
Jaguars win probability
Key Swings
- −26Allen 2-yd TD run68% → 42%Q2 5:37
- +42Lawrence → Washington, 6-yd TD33% → 75%Q4 12:55
- −49Allen → Kincaid, 15-yd TD79% → 30%Q4 8:56
- +67Lawrence → Etienne, 14-yd TD20% → 88%Q4 4:03
- −94Allen 1-yd TD run99% → 5%Q4 1:04
Swing in Jaguars win probability, in points
Play Calling and Possessions
| Buffalo Bills | Measure | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 62 | Plays | 54 |
| 58% | Pass rate | 57% |
| 7.3 | Yds / dropback | 6.6 |
| 3.0 | Yds / carry | 6.7 |
| 7/14 | Third downs | 5/9 |
Efficiency edge Buffalo ran 8 more plays and gained 0.7 more yards per dropback.
- Top targets
- BUF Shakir 34% · Cooks 14% · Kincaid 14%
- JAX Washington 40% · Strange 17% · Etienne 17%
Possession Results
| Result | BUF | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Touchdowns | 3 | 3 |
| Field goals | 2 | 1 |
| Punts | 3 | 2 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Turnovers on downs | 0 | 1 |
| Missed field goals | 0 | 1 |
BUF turnover edge: +1
- The Bills opened the scoring on their second possession, a 4-play, 1-yard drive that ended in a field goal.
All 20 possessions, drive by drive
| Team | Start | Plays | Yards | Time | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | 1:31 | Punt |
| BUF | Q1 13:29 | 8 | 32 | 5:38 | Punt |
| JAX | Q1 7:51 | 5 | 20 | 2:36 | Interception |
| BUF | Q1 5:15 | 4 | 1 | 2:21 | Field goal |
| JAX | Q1 2:54 | 7 | 65 | 3:40 | Touchdown |
| BUF | Q2 14:14 | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | Fumble |
| JAX | Q2 14:05 | 6 | 28 | 2:46 | Downs |
| BUF | Q2 11:19 | 10 | 92 | 5:42 | Touchdown |
| JAX | Q2 5:37 | 3 | 4 | 1:02 | Punt |
| BUF | Q2 4:35 | 8 | 22 | 3:30 | Punt |
| JAX | Q2 1:05 | 4 | 61 | 1:05 | Missed FG |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 45 | 6:48 | Field goal |
| JAX | Q3 8:12 | 6 | 40 | 2:25 | Field goal |
| BUF | Q3 5:47 | 3 | -10 | 1:49 | Punt |
| JAX | Q3 3:58 | 11 | 62 | 6:03 | Touchdown |
| BUF | Q4 12:55 | 9 | 65 | 3:59 | Touchdown |
| JAX | Q4 8:56 | 10 | 77 | 4:53 | Touchdown |
| BUF | Q4 4:03 | 9 | 66 | 2:59 | Touchdown |
| JAX | Q4 1:04 | 1 | 0 | 0:10 | Interception |
| BUF | Q4 0:54 | 2 | -2 | 0:54 | End of game |
About these numbers
Possessions that ended with the clock running out at the half or the end of the game aren't counted.
Personnel groupings, average depth of target and pass rate over expected appear when the tracking feed is connected.
Bills vs Jaguars Head-to-Head
The Bills and Jaguars first met in 1996 and have played 21 times since.
- All-time series
- 11–10Bills lead, 21 meetings since 1996
- Postseason
- 2–1Jaguars won in 1996 and 2017; Bills won in 2025
- Largest Bills win
- 47–102024
- Largest Jaguars win
- 36–142007
Since 2021
2–2 Series tied
4 meetings since the 2021 season, regular season and playoffs.
Oldest to newest. B = Bills win, J = Jaguars win, outlined = this game.
Recent Meetings
- 2025 Wild Card Bills at Jaguars BUF 27 JAX 24 BUF W
- 2024 Wk 3 Jaguars at Bills, 2024 Wk 3 recap BUF 47 JAX 10 BUF W
- 2023 Wk 5 Jaguars vs Bills, 2023 Wk 5 recap JAX 25 BUF 20 JAX W
- 2021 Wk 9 Bills at Jaguars, 2021 Wk 9 recap JAX 9 BUF 6 JAX W
Season to Date (Through Week 18)
The 2025 regular season, from each game's box score.
| Bills | Stat | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 12-5 | Record | 13-4 |
| 28.3 | Points per game | 27.9 |
| 376.3 | Yards per game | 337.4 |
| 5.9 | Yards per play | 5.2 |
| 21.5 | Points allowed per game | 19.8 |
| 293.1 | Yards allowed per game | 303.6 |
Bills vs Jaguars Odds and Results
How this game finished against the betting lines.
- Spread
- JAX −1.5Jaguars failed to cover by 4.5
- Total
- 51.5Under: 51 points scored (by 0.5)
Expected vs Actual Scoring
| Team | Implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 26.5 | 24 | −2.5 |
| Bills | 25.0 | 27 | +2.0 |
The Bills beat their implied total and the Jaguars fell short of theirs; the Fantasy tab has the player lines behind it.
Betting Trends
Last 2 meetings: Bills 1–1 ATS, unders 2–0.
Each team's 2025 season through this game. Over/under is overs first.
Buffalo Bills
- Against the spread
- 4–3
- Over/under
- 4–3
- ATS as favorite
- 3–3
- ATS as underdog
- 1–0
- ATS on the road
- 3–1
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Against the spread
- 6–1
- Over/under
- 4–3
- ATS as favorite
- 4–1
- ATS as underdog
- 2–0
- ATS at home
- 3–1
Lines: ESPN's consensus, captured at kickoff. Individual sportsbooks varied.
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Bills and Jaguars in Fantasy
The two teams don't meet again this season. If you roster a Bill or a Jaguar, these answer the week-to-week question.
- Start/Sit ToolShould your Bills or Jaguars player start this week? Compare the decision against your other options.
- Fantasy Football ProjectionsSee the latest weekly and rest-of-season projections for Bills and Jaguars players.
- Fantasy Points Allowed by PositionHow the Bills and Jaguars defenses have treated QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs.
- Strength of ScheduleWhere each team's remaining games fall in your fantasy playoff run.
- Redraft CommandConnect your league for personalized lineup, trade and roster advice.
Keep Exploring
2025 Game Logs for Players in This Game
Bills vs Jaguars Game FAQ
Who won the 2025 Bills vs Jaguars Wild Card game?
The Buffalo Bills beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 27–24 in the Wild Card round of the 2025 playoffs. The game was played at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL, on January 11, 2026. See the Bills' 2025 schedule.
What was the final score of Bills vs Jaguars?
The final score was Bills 27, Jaguars 24. The Bills led 10–7 at halftime, and the second half went Bills 17, Jaguars 17.
What happened in the Bills vs Jaguars game?
Buffalo led 10–7 at halftime to win 27–24. Jacksonville outgained the Bills 359–340. The Jaguars committed 2 turnovers, the Bills 1.
What was the game-winning score in Bills vs Jaguars?
Josh Allen's 1-yard touchdown run with 1:04 left in the fourth quarter gave the Bills a 27–24 lead they never gave up. It was the final score of the game.
How did the Bills come back to beat the Jaguars?
The Bills' chances of winning fell as low as 1% in the fourth quarter. Josh Allen's 1-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter was the biggest swing of the game. Josh Allen's 1-yard touchdown run then put them ahead for good.
Which team won the turnover battle in Bills vs Jaguars?
The Bills won the turnover battle 2–1: the Jaguars gave the ball away 2 times and the Bills 1 time. The Bills won the game.
What was the turning point of Bills vs Jaguars?
Josh Allen's 1-yard touchdown run with 1:04 left in the fourth quarter was the biggest swing of the game, moving the Jaguars' win probability from 99% to 5%.
What is the all-time Bills vs Jaguars record?
The Bills lead the all-time series 11–10 across 21 meetings since 1996, including a 1–2 record in the postseason.
When did the Bills and Jaguars last play before this game?
Before the 2025 Wild Card round, they last met in the 2024 season on September 23, 2024, when the Bills beat the Jaguars 47–10.
Have the Bills and Jaguars met in the playoffs?
Yes, 3 times, most recently in the 2025 playoffs. The Bills are 1–2 against the Jaguars in the postseason.
What is the Bills vs Jaguars record since 2021?
The series is tied 2–2 across 4 meetings since the 2021 season, including this game.
What was the closing spread for Bills vs Jaguars?
The consensus closing spread at kickoff was Jaguars −1.5, making the Jacksonville Jaguars 1.5-point favorites, with a closing total of 51.5. That implied about 26.5 points for the Jaguars and 25.0 for the Bills.
Did Bills vs Jaguars go over or under the total?
The game went under. The consensus closing total was 51.5, and the teams combined for 51 points, 0.5 under the number.
Who covered the spread in Bills vs Jaguars?
The Bills covered as 1.5-point underdogs against the closing line of Jaguars −1.5. The final margin was 3 points.