Michael Penix Jr. 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 26
- Height / weight
- 6'3", 220 lb
- Experience
- 3rd season
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 17.1
- Pos rank
- QB18
- Rostered
- 25%
Week 8 at Buccaneers, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET 25th vs. QBs, tough
Michael Penix Jr. Rest-of-Season Outlook
Through 5 games he's QB18 at 17.1 PPR points per game, against 13.7 over 9 games last season (QB33). He's running ahead of last season's pace.
The main risk is the job itself. He's the listed starter with Tua Tagovailoa next on the depth chart, and a benching or an injury would take his value to zero overnight.
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 16, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Penix enters his first full season as Atlanta's starter carrying a thin but loud nine-game sample. He finished QB29 in 2025 with 1,982 yards, nine touchdowns and just three picks across nine starts, posting a modest 0.016 EPA per play and a 44.8% success rate. The accuracy still lags: a 60.1% completion rate, minus-3.6 CPOE and a 24% bad-throw rate say his deep-shot profile (12.1% of attempts) outran his ball placement.
The upside lives in the arm. He stacked 26 throws of 20-plus yards and a 69-yard long despite the truncated workload, and his sturdier 2024 cameo flashed a 0.131 EPA per play. With 13 sacks and four fumbles, ball security and protection are the swing factors. Project a full 17, and the volume alone lifts him into low-end QB2 territory with weekly ceiling games baked in. A leap in efficiency is the difference between streamer and starter.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2026 rank through Week 7 among the 25 quarterbacks who have played at least six games. Each bar is one quarterback, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Passing volume
Fewer than 6 games in 2026, so not ranked.
Efficiency
Fewer than 6 games in 2026, so not ranked.
Rushing
Fewer than 6 games in 2026, so not ranked.
- Success rate
- 44.8%
- CPOE
- +0.1
- Sacks taken
- 9
- Pressure rate
- 12.2%
- Bad-throw rate
- 10.7%
- Deep-attempt rate
- 8.5%
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- The scheduleNone of his next four opponents is a top-10 matchup for QBs.Wk 8 TB, 25thWk 9 CIN, 15thWk 10 KC, 30thWk 12 MIN, 32nd
Risk
- Job securityTua Tagovailoa is next on the depth chart; a benching or injury hands him the job.
- Tough matchupsThe Buccaneers in Week 8 (25th) and the Chiefs in Week 10 (30th) are among the stingiest defenses against QBs.
- Pressure and sacks9 sacks and a 12.2% pressure rate in 2026.
Keep researching Michael Penix Jr
- QB rest-of-season rankingsWhere every QB ranks for the rest of 2026Open
- Falcons depth chartWho starts, who backs up, and who is next man upOpen
- QB strength of scheduleWhich defenses QBs face the rest of the wayOpen
- Trade value chartWhat every player is worth in a redraft tradeOpen
- Falcons usage reportSnap share, targets and touches by playerOpen
- QB projectionsWeekly and rest-of-season QB projectionsOpen
- Falcons scheduleEvery remaining opponent and the fantasy matchupOpen
QBs like Michael Penix Jr.
QB15Matthew StaffordRams18.6 PPG
QB16C.J. StroudTexans18.5 PPG
QB17Patrick MahomesChiefs17.3 PPG
QB18You are hereMichael Penix Jr.Falcons17.1 PPG
QB19Aaron RodgersSteelers16.8 PPG
QB20Jalen HurtsEagles16.6 PPG
QB21Jacoby BrissettCardinals16.2 PPG
Michael Penix Jr. Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Michael Penix Jr.'s fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Michael Penix Jr. projects as a qB2 with streaming weeks for the rest of the 2026 season: a weekly starter in superflex and 2QB leagues and a streamer in 1QB leagues. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Michael Penix Jr.'s rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Michael Penix Jr. is the QB18 in PPR points per game through Week 7. That puts him in QB2 territory, a streamer in 12-team 1QB leagues.
What is Michael Penix Jr.'s projected role going forward?
Michael Penix Jr. is the listed starting QB, with Tua Tagovailoa next on the depth chart. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
Will Michael Penix Jr. get more pass attempts?
Michael Penix Jr.'s pass attempts are trending up: 33.5 a game over his last two games against 28.8 for the season. Game script drives much of that, and trailing teams throw more.
What is Michael Penix Jr.'s fantasy football upside?
Michael Penix Jr.'s upside: his ceiling this season is 23.1 PPR points (Week 6, QB5).
What could hurt Michael Penix Jr.'s fantasy value?
Michael Penix Jr.'s risks: Tua Tagovailoa is next on the depth chart if he is benched or hurt and the Buccaneers in Week 8 and the Chiefs in Week 10 are tough matchups. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Michael Penix Jr.'s remaining fantasy schedule?
Difficult: of his next seven games, 2 come against a top-10 matchup for QBs and 4 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.