NFC South · 2026 Season

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons fantasy football hub

DivisionNFC South
Record1-2
Standing1st in NFC South1st
Head CoachKevin Stefanski
ByeWeek 11W11

Last updated Oct 2, 3:45 PM ET

Atlanta Falcons

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Atlanta Falcons Usage & Opportunity Report 2026

Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday

Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.

Pass rate over expected−11.9%32ndRuns more than game situations call for — a cap on the pass-catchers' volume and a floor under Robinson
Red-zone pass rate8%32ndRun-first inside the 20 — Robinson's 7 green-zone carries eat the receivers' TDs
Neutral pace35.1s29th fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations — a slow offense shrinks the pie
Plays per game62.711thOffensive plays a game — league-average volume, so shares decide it
Team xFP / game67.531stTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates — a thin pie, so only the top shares pay

The Target Tree

All 79 Falcons pass attempts through Week 4

24.1%London20.3%Robinson12.7%Dotson7.6%7.6%16.5%Hooper/Branch/Blair7.6%

Drake London 24.1%
Bijan Robinson 20.3%
Jahan Dotson 12.7%
Kyle Pitts 7.6%
Olamide Zaccheaus 7.6%
Hooper/Branch/Blair 16.5%
Everyone else 3.8%
No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 7.6%

The Backfield Split

Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.

74.2%Robinson25.8%Robinson

Bijan Robinson 74.2%
Brian Robinson 25.8%

SituationRobinsonRobinson

Early downs100 opps72%28%

Third down14 opps71%29%

Red zone (in-20)12 opps92%8%

Inside the 108 opps88%13%

Two-minute drill10 opps70%30%

Trailing by 7+44 opps59%41%

Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.

32.7Robinson weighted opps/game — RB3 in the NFL
23Robinson high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
11.3Robinson weighted opps/game
+3.7Robinson wOpp/g vs. last season — role grew, not just efficiency

Why Robinson's floor holds in PPR: He keeps 71% of the backs' third-down work as well as the early downs, so his catches don't depend on game script — a 74-catch pace. Trailing by 7+, he still gets 59% of the backs' work — no one takes the hurry-up snaps from him.

The Robinson math if Robinson misses time: Robinson backs up the early-down role (the valuable ones). A Robinson absence projects Robinson to ~100% of weighted opportunities — about 44.0 a game, a top-12 weekly RB by volume — and why he's a STASH, not a cut.

Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap

8.513 attLeft end
4.520 attLeft tackle
3.348 attMiddle
3.58 attRight tackle
11.09 attRight end

Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.

The right side is the run game's engine: 11.0 yards per carry off right end and 3.5 behind right tackle — 17% of all designed runs go that way, and two of Robinson's three longest runs came off the right side. Interior volume (48 attempts) does the clock work at 3.3; the right edge does the damage. When the line's right side sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.

Where Rush Attacks

Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4

3%34.0 YPADeep left
0%no attemptsDeep middle
3%0.0 YPADeep right

Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards

37%7.3 YPAShort left
20%5.1 YPAShort middle
38%6.1 YPAShort right

The short left is the efficiency engine (7.3 YPA). Rush keeps 95% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep left his most explosive zone (34 YPA on 2 attempts). Dotson's fantasy problem, mapped: a 14.4-yard aDOT puts him in the 5% deep slice of this chart while the short left feasts. Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.

Profile	Player	Opportunity (WOPR)	Target share	Snap share	RZ touches	Read
	Bijan RobinsonRB1, 71% of RB touchesRB3 in weighted opps/game, NFL	—touch share 71%	20.3%−37.5 vs W1	66%−5 vs W1	11 ▲0 · 0 · 11 — leads team	Set & forget
Touch share (RB room)71% Red-zone share (RB room)92% Green-zone carries (in-10)7 Target share20.3% Weighted opps / game32.7 xFP / game20.7 FPOE / game+5.2 Yards after contact / att2.5 The locked-in workhorse. A 92% share of the backs' red-zone work is the RB stat that tracks fantasy points best, and 7 green-zone carries put him at the goal line. He's scoring +5.2 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 20.7 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs.
	Drake LondonWR1WR13 in target share, NFL	0.62elite	24.1%+21.8 vs W1	84%−5 vs W1	00 · 0 · 0	Set & forget
First-read share32.2% Air-yards share36.9% aDOT7.5 End-zone targets0 xFP / game10.6 FPOE / game+3.7 The alpha profile, fully formed. A 36.9% air-yards share clears the 30% alpha threshold, a 32.2% first-read share says the offense is designed through him, and a 7.5-yard aDOT keeps him on the move-the-chains throws. He's scoring +3.7 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 10.6 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs.
	Jahan DotsonWR2WR63 in target share, NFL	0.45strong — elite at 0.60	12.7%steady	69%steady	00 · 0 · 0	Volatile
First-read share15.3% Air-yards share37.4% aDOT14.4 End-zone targets0 xFP / game5.3 FPOE / game−2.6 The deep-decoy profile. A 14.4-yard aDOT sits past the depth where weekly production turns boom/bust, and a 12.7% target share says he isn't earning volume when he's out there. Best-ball ceiling, seasonal-league headache. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs.
	Kyle PittsTE1TE38 in target share, NFL	0.22below startable	7.6%+3.5 vs W1	53%steady	00 · 0 · 0	Volatile
First-read share8.5% Air-yards share15.6% aDOT10.0 End-zone targets0 xFP / game3.0 FPOE / game−1.7 Not enough of the pie. A 7.6% target share is under the line where weekly fantasy value lives, and a 8.5% first-read share says he's rarely the design. He needs an injury above him or a role change, not a better matchup. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs.
	Brian RobinsonRB2 · handcuff, 29% of RB touchesRB43 in weighted opps/game, NFL	—touch share 29%	2.5%steady	34%steady	1 ▲0 · 0 · 1	Stash
Touch share (RB room)29% Red-zone share (RB room)8% Green-zone carries (in-10)1 Target share2.5% Weighted opps / game11.3 xFP / game6.0 FPOE / game+1.6 Yards after contact / att2.6 Contingent value, quantified. The 29% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Robinson misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs.
	Cooper RushQB1QB36 in xFP/game, NFL	—every dropback	—the passer	50%−42 vs W1	00 · 0 · –	Volatile
Green-zone carries (in-10)0 Designed-run rate0.0% Scramble rate4.3% aDOT4.7 xFP / game5.6 FPOE / game−3.1 Sack rate10.9% Team pass rate inside the 1011% A pocket passer's profile. 0 green-zone carries and a 4.3% scramble rate: his points have to come through the air, so his weekly range follows the pass volume (QB36 in expected points). He's −3.1 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs.

How to read this table

Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
Stash the role behind the role
WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
+ button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league

Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.

Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.

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Common questions

Who leads the Atlanta Falcons in target share?

Drake London leads the Atlanta Falcons with a 24.1% target share through Week 4, up 21.8 points since Week 1. Bijan Robinson is second at 20.3%.

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Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons Usage & Opportunity Report 2026

The Target Tree

The Backfield Split

Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap

Where Rush Attacks

Explore StatChasers

Common questions

Who leads the Atlanta Falcons in target share?