Patrick Mahomes 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 31
- Height / weight
- 6'2", 225 lb
- Experience
- 10th season
- Drafted
- 2017 R1, #10
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 22.9
- Pos rank
- QB6
- Rostered
- 97%
Week 4 at Raiders, Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET 18th vs. QBs, neutral
Patrick Mahomes Rest-of-Season Outlook
Volume-driven QB1 every week
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished QB11 last season at 21.2 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 3 games he's QB6 at 22.9 PPR points per game, against 21.2 over 14 games last season (QB11). He's running ahead of last season's pace.
Last season he ranked 2nd of 41 in passing volume (35.9 attempts per game), 7th of 41 in efficiency (0.16 EPA per play) and 6th of 41 in rushing (30.1 rush yards per game). His points come from his passing volume. Travis Kelce and Kenneth Walker are his top two targets.
The job is secure: he's the listed starter and one of the best at his position. The main risk is health, and Justin Fields is next on the depth chart if he misses time.
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 16, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Before the Week 15 knee injury, Mahomes was building his most efficient season in years: a career-best 0.16 EPA per play across 14 games, a 49% success rate, and 284.7 fantasy points despite a modest 22 passing touchdowns against 11 picks. The real engine was his rushing, where he posted career highs of 422 yards and five scores on 64 carries. That mobility, not the 62.7% completion rate or middling 7.15 yards per attempt, carried his QB12 finish and separated him from a passing line that has quietly cooled three straight years.
The problem for 2026 is that the legs are exactly what a torn ACL and LCL threaten. He is targeting Week 1 but still limited to 7-on-7 work in June, and Kansas City answered by importing Kenneth Walker III to lighten his load. With no new receiving help around Kelce and a healthy Rice, expect a more pocket-bound passer. He profiles as a low-end QB1 worth a mid-round flier, not an every-week anchor.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 41 quarterbacks who played at least six games. Each bar is one quarterback, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Passing volume
Efficiency
Rushing
- Success rate
- 49.0%
- CPOE
- +0.3
- Sacks taken
- 34
- Pressure rate
- 24.0%
- Bad-throw rate
- 17.9%
- Deep-attempt rate
- 12.3%
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- The scheduleNone of his next four opponents is a top-10 matchup for QBs.Wk 4 LV, 18thWk 6 LAC, 15thWk 7 SEA, 28thWk 8 DEN, 20th
- Heavy passing volume35.9 attempts per game, 2nd of 41 QBs in 2025.
- Strong efficiency0.16 EPA per play, 7th of 41 QBs in 2025.
Risk
- HealthHis role is secure; if he misses time, Justin Fields is next on the depth chart.
- A tough matchupThe Seahawks in Week 7 (28th) is among the stingiest defenses against QBs.
- Pressure and sacks34 sacks and a 24.0% pressure rate in 2025.
All Patrick Mahomes stats & analysis
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Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Patrick Mahomes's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Patrick Mahomes projects as a volume-driven QB1 every week for the rest of the 2026 season: a weekly starter in superflex and 2QB, 12-team 1QB and 10-team 1QB leagues. His passing volume (35.9 attempts per game, 2nd of 41 QBs in 2025) supports that. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Patrick Mahomes's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Patrick Mahomes is the QB6 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in QB1 territory, a weekly starter in 12-team 1QB leagues.
What is Patrick Mahomes's projected role going forward?
Patrick Mahomes is the listed starting QB, with Justin Fields next on the depth chart. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
Will Patrick Mahomes get more pass attempts?
Patrick Mahomes's pass attempts are trending up: 35.5 a game over his last two games against 32.7 for the season. Game script drives much of that, and trailing teams throw more.
What is Patrick Mahomes's fantasy football upside?
Patrick Mahomes's upside: his ceiling this season is 29.0 PPR points (Week 2, QB4) and his passing volume (35.9 attempts per game, 2nd of 41 QBs in 2025) gives him a weekly floor to build on.
What could hurt Patrick Mahomes's fantasy value?
Patrick Mahomes's risks: Justin Fields is next on the depth chart if he is benched or hurt and the Seahawks in Week 7 is a tough matchup. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Patrick Mahomes's remaining fantasy schedule?
Difficult: of his next seven games, 1 comes against a top-10 matchup for QBs and 2 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.