Sam Darnold 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 29
- Height / weight
- 6'3", 225 lb
- Experience
- 9th season
- Drafted
- 2018 R1, #3
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 15.1
- Pos rank
- QB29
- Rostered
- 62%
Week 4 vs. Chargers, Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET 15th vs. QBs, neutral
Sam Darnold Rest-of-Season Outlook
Efficient QB3 for deep leagues only
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished QB13 last season at 14.7 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 2 games he's QB29 at 15.1 PPR points per game, against 14.7 over 17 games last season (QB13). The role is producing the same fantasy output two years running.
Last season he ranked 28th of 41 in passing volume (28.1 attempts per game), 13th of 41 in efficiency (0.089 EPA per play) and 32nd of 41 in rushing (5.6 rush yards per game). His points come from his efficiency. Rushing is the soft spot. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Rashid Shaheed are his top two targets.
The main risk is the job itself. He's the listed starter with Drew Lock next on the depth chart, and a benching or an injury would take his value to zero overnight.
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 17, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Darnold has quietly stacked two top-five fantasy quarterback seasons. In 2025 with Seattle he played all 17 games, completed 67.7 percent for 4,048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 picks, adding a 5.2 CPOE and 0.089 EPA per play en route to 235.4 points and a QB5 rank. That followed his 2024 MVP-adjacent breakout in Minnesota: 35 touchdowns, 4,319 yards, and 308 points, also QB5. The efficiency profile is legitimate, an on-target rate near 80 percent and 57 throws of 20-plus yards in 2025, though the touchdown total dipped from 35 to 25 year over year.
The knock is the non-existent rushing floor, just 95 yards and zero rushing scores in 2025, which caps his ceiling relative to mobile QB1s. He is a reliable two-QB and superflex starter and a strong streaming option in 1QB leagues, but the lack of designed legs and a touchdown regression risk make him a back-end QB1 rather than a set-and-forget weekly anchor for 2026.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 41 quarterbacks who played at least six games. Each bar is one quarterback, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Passing volume
Efficiency
Rushing
- Success rate
- 51.0%
- CPOE
- +5.2
- Sacks taken
- 27
- Pressure rate
- 21.0%
- Bad-throw rate
- 14.6%
- Deep-attempt rate
- 10.5%
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- The scheduleNone of his next four opponents is a top-10 matchup for QBs.Wk 4 LAC, 15thWk 5 SF, 25thWk 6 DEN, 20thWk 7 KC, 32nd
- Strong efficiency0.089 EPA per play, 13th of 41 QBs in 2025.
Risk
- Job securityDrew Lock is next on the depth chart; a benching or injury hands him the job.
- Limited rushing5.6 rush yards per game, 32nd of 41 QBs in 2025.
- Tough matchupsThe 49ers in Week 5 (25th) and the Chiefs in Week 7 (32nd) are among the stingiest defenses against QBs.
All Sam Darnold stats & analysis
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Sam Darnold Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Sam Darnold's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Sam Darnold projects as an efficient QB3 for deep leagues only for the rest of the 2026 season: a streamer in superflex and 2QB leagues and waiver-wire material in 1QB leagues. His efficiency (0.089 EPA per play, 13th of 41 QBs in 2025) supports that. His rushing (5.6 rush yards per game, 32nd of 41 QBs in 2025) holds him back. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Sam Darnold's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Sam Darnold is the QB29 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in QB3 territory, waiver-wire material in 12-team 1QB leagues.
What is Sam Darnold's projected role going forward?
Sam Darnold is the listed starting QB, with Drew Lock next on the depth chart. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
What is Sam Darnold's fantasy football upside?
Sam Darnold's upside: his ceiling this season is 29.7 PPR points (Week 3, QB2) and his efficiency (0.089 EPA per play, 13th of 41 QBs in 2025) gives him a weekly floor to build on.
What could hurt Sam Darnold's fantasy value?
Sam Darnold's risks: Drew Lock is next on the depth chart if he is benched or hurt, his rushing (5.6 rush yards per game, 32nd of 41 QBs in 2025) limits his scoring and the 49ers in Week 5 and the Chiefs in Week 7 are tough matchups. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Sam Darnold's remaining fantasy schedule?
Difficult: of his next seven games, 1 comes against a top-10 matchup for QBs and 2 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.