NFC West · 2026 Season
Seattle Seahawks
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Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks Usage & Opportunity Report 2026
Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday
Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.
- Pass rate over expected−2.7%21stThrows about as much as situations call for — the target tree, not the play-calling, decides who eats
- Red-zone pass rate49%26thRun-first inside the 20 — Price's 2 green-zone carries eat the receivers' TDs
- Neutral pace36.2s32nd fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations — a slow offense shrinks the pie
- Plays per game59.317thOffensive plays a game — league-average volume, so shares decide it
- Team xFP / game90.414thTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates
The Target Tree
All 96 Seahawks pass attempts through Week 4
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba 37.5%
- Rashid Shaheed 12.5%
- AJ Barner 12.5%
- Cooper Kupp 10.4%
- Jadarian Price 7.3%
- Holani/Russell/Saubert 13.5%
- Everyone else 5.2%
- No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 1.0%
The Backfield Split
Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.
- Jadarian Price 37.8%
- Emanuel Wilson 30.6%
- George Holani 26.1%
- Other backs 5.4%
Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.
- 14.0Price weighted opps/game — RB33 in the NFL
- 9Price high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
- 11.3Wilson weighted opps/game
Why Price's reception count stays capped: Emanuel Wilson owns 56% of the backs' third-down work and 44% of two-minute work. Price's 23-catch pace isn't a talent question — the passing-down role belongs to Wilson. Green flag for his rushing floor, hard ceiling on his PPR upside.
The Wilson math if Price misses time: Wilson backs up the early-down and red-zone roles (the valuable ones). A Price absence projects Wilson to ~52% of weighted opportunities — about 19.4 a game, an RB2 by volume — and why he's a STASH, not a cut.
Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap
- 3.39 attLeft end
- 5.36 attLeft tackle
- 2.840 attMiddle
- 6.47 attRight tackle
- 4.415 attRight end
Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.
The right side is the run game's engine: 6.4 yards per carry behind right tackle and 4.4 off right end — 29% of all designed runs go that way, and all three of Price's three longest runs came off the right side. Interior volume (40 attempts) does the clock work at 2.8; the right edge does the damage. When the line's right side sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.
Where Lock Attacks
Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4
- 0%no attemptsDeep left
- 3%13.7 YPADeep middle
- 5%26.4 YPADeep right
Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards
- 31%7.2 YPAShort left · Smith-Njigba
- 22%9.0 YPAShort middle · Smith-Njigba
- 39%6.7 YPAShort right
The short middle is the efficiency engine (9 YPA) — and it's Smith-Njigba's territory. Lock keeps 92% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep right his most explosive zone (26.4 YPA on 5 attempts). Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.
| Profile | Player | Opportunity (WOPR) | Target share | Snap share | RZ touches | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR1WR1 in target share, NFL | 0.93elite | 37.5%−15.4 vs W1 | 80%steady | 93 · 3 · 3 | Set & forget | |
The alpha profile, fully formed. A 51.9% air-yards share clears the 30% alpha threshold, a 48.4% first-read share says the offense is designed through him, and a 9.7-yard aDOT sits in the sweet spot — deep enough for ceiling, not so deep it gets volatile. He's scoring +12.5 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 22.2 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Jadarian PriceRB1, 36% of RB touchesRB33 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 36% | 7.3%steady | 36%−20 vs W1 | 30 · 3 · 0 | Flex | |
A shared backfield. 38% of the weighted opportunities means another back takes a real cut every week, so his floor rises and falls with game script. He's −4.3 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| AJ BarnerTE1TE19 in target share, NFL | 0.21below startable | 12.5%+11.3 vs W1 | 86%steady | 5 ▲0 · 1 · 4 | Volatile | |
The role is arriving before the box score does. His target share has run 8% → 4% → 20% over the last 3 games. Volume that is growing this fast gets repriced the week it scores. Production is running −0.2 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| Rashid ShaheedWR2WR64 in target share, NFL | 0.29below startable | 12.5%−6.0 vs W1 | 55%−20 vs W1 | 10 · 1 · 0 | Volatile | |
A starter's share without the alpha tag. A 12.5% target share and 6.5 expected points a game, with a 16.1% first-read share; a 15.1% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. He's −2.6 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Cooper KuppWR3WR72 in target share, NFL | 0.26below startable | 10.4%steady | 61%−11 vs W1 | 1 ▲0 · 0 · 1 | Volatile | |
Not enough of the pie. A 10.4% target share is under the line where weekly fantasy value lives, and a 12.9% first-read share says he's rarely the design. He needs an injury above him or a role change, not a better matchup. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Emanuel WilsonRB2 · handcuff, 36% of RB touchesRB43 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 36% | 1.0%steady | 30%+30 vs W1 | 10 ▲0 · 8 · 2 — leads team | Stash | |
Contingent value, quantified. The 36% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Price misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| George HolaniRB3 · handcuff, 24% of RB touchesRB46 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 24% | 7.3%+6.7 vs W1 | 35%−10 vs W1 | 72 · 4 · 1 | Stash | |
Contingent value, quantified. The 24% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Price misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Drew LockQB1QB30 in xFP/game, NFL | —every dropback | —the passer | 61%+10 vs W1 | 11 · 0 · – | Volatile | |
A pocket passer's profile. 0 green-zone carries and a 2% scramble rate: his points have to come through the air, so his weekly range follows the pass volume (QB30 in expected points). He's scoring +6.2 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 10.9 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs. | ||||||
How to read this table
- Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
- Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
- Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
- Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
- Stash the role behind the role
- WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
- + button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league
Buy low
AJ Barner
The role is arriving before the box score does. Trade for him this week — not after the two-touchdown game makes it obvious to your league.
- +3snap share pts since W1
- +11.3target share pts since W1
Sell high
Rashid Shaheed
Season totals still read like a starter, but the share just fell to a season low. Name value currently exceeds trajectory.
- −6.0target share pts since W1
- 6.5%W3 share — season low
Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser like Barner gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.
Explore StatChasers
- Fantasy Football ToolsThe #1 ranked fantasy football toolset.Open
- Advanced Player StatsDeeper numbers on every player in the league.Open
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- Fantasy Points AllowedHow Seattle's defense performs against QB, RB, WR and TE.Open
Common questions
Who leads the Seattle Seahawks in target share?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the Seattle Seahawks with a 37.5% target share through Week 4, down 15.4 points since Week 1. AJ Barner is second at 12.5%.