Zay Flowers 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 26
- Height / weight
- 5'9", 183 lb
- Experience
- 4th season
- Drafted
- 2023 R1, #22
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 20.7
- Pos rank
- WR21
- Rostered
- 99%
Week 4 vs. Titans, Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET 14th vs. WRs, neutral
Zay Flowers Rest-of-Season Outlook
Target-heavy WR2 every week
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished WR7 last season at 14.3 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 2 games he's WR21 at 20.7 PPR points per game, against 14.3 over 17 games last season (WR7). He's running ahead of last season's pace.
Last season he ranked 5th of 142 in target volume (29.0% target share), 8th of 142 in downfield role (35.2% air-yards share) and 5th of 142 in efficiency (2.75 yards per route run). His points come from his target volume. Lamar Jackson is his quarterback.
The job is secure: he's the listed starter and one of the best at his position. The main risk is health, and Lajohntay Wester is next on the depth chart if he misses time.
The next favorable matchup is the Falcons in Week 5 (3rd against WRs).
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 16, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Flowers graded out as our WR6 in 2025, and the workload backs it up: a 29% target share, a 0.681 WOPR, and 118 looks across all 17 games. He converted that into 86 grabs for 1,211 yards on a 72.9% catch rate, while his 2.75 yards per route run and 0.401 EPA per play put him among the most efficient receivers in football. His 57.6% success rate confirms this wasn't volume noise.
The one cap is the end zone. Just 11 red zone targets and 5 end zone looks held him to five scores, and he's never topped that mark. That keeps the ceiling tethered to Baltimore's run-leaning script and Lamar Jackson's touchdown rate. But the route volume, the air-yards share north of 35%, and a third straight rising target tree make him a steady early-round WR2 with genuine WR1 weeks baked in.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 142 receivers who played at least six games. Each bar is one receiver, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Target volume
Downfield role
Efficiency
- Average depth of target
- 10.2
- Drop rate
- 5.9%
- Red-zone targets
- 11
- Route participation
- 95.0%
- YAC per reception
- 5.3
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- A soft spotThe Falcons in Week 5 is a top-10 matchup for WRs.Wk 4 TEN, 14thWk 5 ATL, 3rdWk 6 CLE, 11thWk 7 CIN, 21st
- Heavy target volume29.0% target share, 5th of 142 WRs in 2025.
- Downfield role35.2% air-yards share, 8th of 142 WRs in 2025.
Risk
- HealthHis role is secure; if he misses time, Lajohntay Wester is next on the depth chart.
- Ball security3 fumbles in 2025.
All Zay Flowers stats & analysis
WRs like Zay Flowers
Zay Flowers Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Zay Flowers's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Zay Flowers projects as a target-heavy WR2 every week for the rest of the 2026 season: a weekly starter in 12-team PPR, 10-team PPR and half-PPR leagues. His target volume (29.0% target share, 5th of 142 WRs in 2025) supports that. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Zay Flowers's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Zay Flowers is the WR21 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in WR2 territory, a weekly starter in 10-team PPR leagues.
What is Zay Flowers's projected role going forward?
Zay Flowers is the listed starting WR, with Lajohntay Wester next on the depth chart. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
What is Zay Flowers's fantasy football upside?
Zay Flowers's upside: his ceiling this season is 26.0 PPR points (Week 1, WR7), his target volume (29.0% target share, 5th of 142 WRs in 2025) gives him a weekly floor to build on and the Falcons in Week 5 is a top-10 matchup for WRs.
What could hurt Zay Flowers's fantasy value?
Zay Flowers's risks: Lajohntay Wester is next on the depth chart if he is benched or hurt. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Zay Flowers's remaining fantasy schedule?
Favorable: of his next seven games, 2 come against a top-10 matchup for WRs and 0 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.