Start Luther Burden III. Burden III is projected for 14.9 PPR points vs 12.8 for Zay Flowers, and faces the 8th-toughest defense against WRs this week.
Updated Nov 7, 4:39 PM ET
| Luther Burden III WR · CHI | Zay Flowers WR · BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 9, avg of sources) | 14.9 | 12.8 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 13.9 | 11.3 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 15.8 | 13.9 |
| StatChasers projection | 15.3 (WR15) | 11.3 (WR30) |
| Opponent | vs TB | vs JAX |
| Opponent vs. position | 8th-toughest (28.0 pts/g allowed) | 6th-softest (36.9 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 22% target share (last 3) | 30% target share (last 3) |
| Position | WR | WR |
| Our call | START · WR2 | START · WR3 |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Luther Burden III. Burden III projects for 14.9 PPR points vs TB, against 12.8 for Zay Flowers vs JAX: a 2.1-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Luther Burden III is projected to score more: 14.9 PPR points to 12.8 for Zay Flowers.
The sources range from 13.9 to 15.8 for Burden III and from 11.3 to 13.9 for Flowers. The ranges overlap, so Flowers outscoring Burden III is a realistic result.
Luther Burden III is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Burden III at 13.9 PPR points, against 11.3 for Zay Flowers.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Luther Burden III has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Burden III at 15.8 PPR points, against 13.9 for Zay Flowers.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Luther Burden III plays TB and Zay Flowers plays JAX in Week 9.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Burden III faces the 8th-toughest defense against WRs and Flowers faces the 6th-softest defense against WRs, so Zay Flowers has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games Luther Burden III has drawn 22% of his team's targets, and Zay Flowers 30% of his team's targets.
Zay Flowers has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is Zay Flowers.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Luther Burden III nor Zay Flowers has an injury designation for Week 9.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Luther Burden III is projected by 6 of them and Zay Flowers by 6.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.