Sam Darnold Dynasty Value 2026
Sam Darnold dynasty outlook: superflex and 1QB value, dynasty rank, age curve, startup and rookie draft cost, long-term market trend, production history and trade context.
Sam Darnold dynasty outlook
Sam Darnold is ranked #84 overall and QB22 in StatChasers' superflex dynasty rankings, a depth or upside hold at a market value of 2,075.
He is 29.0 years old — in the long quarterback prime. Age is weighted per position in the model value, so this is priced in rather than mentioned in passing.
Sam's dynasty value (2,075) runs well ahead of his win-now value (874) — the market is paying for what he becomes, not what he does this season. That is a rebuilder's asset, and a contender's trade chip.
Format matters here: Sam is worth 2,075 in superflex against 1,128 in 1QB, a +84.0% difference — the usual superflex quarterback premium. Check which format a comparable trade came from before using it as a price.
The model values Sam +62.7% above the dynasty market, a buy-low signal: his production and age say the price is too low.
In dynasty startup drafts Sam goes at pick 88.6 on average (round 8.05 in a 12-team startup, QB22 by ADP), with a typical range of 63 to 108 across 855 drafts; his startup cost is falling over the last 30 days (-5.0 picks).
Over the longer run his startup ADP has risen: from an average pick of 248.7 in 2024-02 to 97.1 in 2026-09, across 28 months of drafts.
Production trajectory: 14.7 PPR points per game in 2025 over 17 games, down from 18.8 in 2024, finishing QB13.
Drafted round 1, pick 3 by New York Jets in 2018. Draft capital keeps mattering in dynasty long after it stops mattering in redraft — teams keep giving opportunity to players they spent a pick on.
Player profile
| Team | Seattle Seahawks |
| Position | QB |
| Age | 29.0 |
| Experience | 8 yrs |
| Number | #14 |
| Bye week | Week 11 |
| Status | Active |
Dynasty value
| Superflex value (StatChasers Market) | 2,075 |
| Superflex rank | #84 · QB22 |
| 1QB value | 1,128 |
| 1QB rank | #109 · QB22 |
| 30-day movement | — |
| Win-now (redraft) value | 874 |
| Timeline | Rebuild asset |
| Model value | 3,375 |
| Model vs market | +62.7% |
| Signal | Strong Buy |
Run a trade with Sam in the dynasty trade calculator, or find one with the dynasty trade finder.
Sam Darnold startup draft cost
Drafted in 855 completed dynasty startup drafts · overall ADP rank #86 · QB22 · earliest pick 26, latest 319 · 7-day -3.0, 14-day -1.0. Expected pick 83.4; availability falls off hardest between picks 58 and 59 (−1 points of availability). Full board on the dynasty startup rankings page.
Sam Darnold dynasty value trend
Average startup-draft pick by month, oldest to newest — a taller bar is an earlier pick and a more valuable player. Months with fewer than three completed drafts are omitted. Range over this window: pick 60.9 to 248.7.
Sam Darnold production by season
Career production, which in dynasty is read as a trajectory rather than a snapshot: the direction across seasons matters more than any single line.
| Season | Team | Games | PPR / game | Half / game | Std / game | PPR finish | Half finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | SEA | 17 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | QB13 | QB13 |
| 2024 | MIN | 17 | 18.8 | 18.8 | 18.8 | QB9 | QB9 |
| 2023 | SF | 10 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | QB53 | QB53 |
| 2022 | CAR | 6 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | QB36 | QB36 |
| 2021 | CAR | 12 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 | QB29 | QB29 |
| 2020 | NYJ | 12 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | QB30 | QB30 |
Sam Darnold draft capital and athletic profile
Combine measurements with the percentile against other QBs in the database. Athletic profile and draft capital are long-horizon inputs — they say little about next Sunday and a good deal about how long a team keeps handing a player opportunity.
Draft capital
| Draft class | 2018 |
| Round | 1 |
| Overall pick | #3 |
| Drafted by | New York Jets |
| Height | 6'3" |
| Weight | 221 lb |
Combine testing
Bar length is the percentile against the position cohort.
Sam Darnold injury history
Durability compounds over a dynasty horizon in a way it never does over one season, so the record is here in full rather than summarised into a grade.
| Season | Week | Injury | Severity | Games missed | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20 | Oblique | minor | 0 | Sustained an oblique injury during practice ahead of the divisional round playoff game, was limited in practice but played through it in the postseason. |
| 2024 | 10 | Hand | minor | 0 | Dealt with a minor hand injury but was a full participant in practice ahead of Week 11 with no injury designation. |
| 2024 | 3 | Knee Bruise | minor | 0 | Underwent an MRI on his left knee after a low hit in Week 3 but only missed one play and did not miss any games. |
| 2022 | — | High Ankle Sprain | major | 11 | Suffered a high ankle sprain in the third preseason game and was placed on injured reserve, returning in Week 12. |
| 2021 | 9 | Scapula Fracture | major | 5 | Sustained an incomplete fracture of the scapula in his throwing shoulder and was placed on injured reserve, returning in Week 16. |
| 2020 | 8 | Shoulder | moderate | 2 | Re-aggravated his previous shoulder injury in a game against the Kansas City Chiefs, leading to him missing the next two games. |
| 2020 | 4 | AC Joint Sprain | moderate | 2 | Sprained the AC joint in his throwing shoulder against the Broncos, causing him to miss two games. |
| 2019 | 2 | Mononucleosis | moderate | 3 | Diagnosed with mononucleosis after the season opener, causing him to miss three games. |
| 2018 | 9 | Foot Sprain | moderate | 3 | Suffered a foot sprain that sidelined him for three games during his rookie season. |
Dynasty assets valued near Sam Darnold
Same position, nearest dynasty value — the players he is realistically swapped for.
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Data on this page updated 2026-09-30.