Dalton Kincaid 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 26
- Height / weight
- 6'3", 246 lb
- Experience
- 4th season
- Drafted
- 2023 R1, #25
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 14.8
- Pos rank
- TE6
- Rostered
- 97%
Week 4 vs. Patriots, Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET 31st vs. TEs, tough
Dalton Kincaid Rest-of-Season Outlook
Efficient TE1 every week
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished TE20 last season at 10.5 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 3 games he's TE6 at 14.8 PPR points per game, against 10.5 over 12 games last season (TE20). He's running ahead of last season's pace.
Last season he ranked 47th of 81 in route participation (36.0%), 26th of 82 in target share (10.2%) and 1st of 82 in efficiency (2.97 yards per route run). His points come from his efficiency. Route participation is the soft spot. Josh Allen is his quarterback.
The job is secure: he's the listed starter and one of the best at his position. The main risk is health, and Dawson Knox is next on the depth chart if he misses time.
The next favorable matchup is the Raiders in Week 6 (4th against TEs).
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 16, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Kincaid was wildly efficient in his 12 games last season, posting 0.823 EPA per play and a 63.3% success rate while finishing TE16. On just 49 targets he caught 39 balls (79.6%) for 571 yards at 14.64 per grab, and his 2.97 yards per route run jumped from 1.68 the year prior. Five touchdowns and eight red-zone looks show the scoring chops are real when he's healthy and on the field.
The problem is the snaps: a 37.4% rate and 10.2% target share that both slid from 2024. With Knox and a rookie eating into the rotation, a target-hungry receiver room, and a knee Buffalo plans to manage, volume is the ceiling-killer here. The per-route metrics scream league-winner, but until the route share climbs back toward 50%, Kincaid is a high-upside TE2 you draft for spikes, not weekly floor.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 81 tight ends who played at least six games. Each bar is one tight end, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Route participation
Target share
Efficiency
- Average depth of target
- 9.5
- Drop rate
- 2.0%
- Red-zone targets
- 8
- Route participation
- 36.0%
- YAC per reception
- 6.6
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- A soft spotThe Raiders in Week 6 is a top-10 matchup for TEs.Wk 4 NE, 31stWk 5 LAR, 29thWk 6 LV, 4thWk 8 BAL, 20th
- Heavy target share10.2% target share, 26th of 82 TEs in 2025.
- Strong efficiency2.97 yards per route run, 1st of 82 TEs in 2025.
Risk
- HealthHis role is secure; if he misses time, Dawson Knox is next on the depth chart.
- Tough matchupsThe Patriots in Week 4 (31st) and the Rams in Week 5 (29th) are among the stingiest defenses against TEs.
All Dalton Kincaid stats & analysis
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Dalton Kincaid Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Dalton Kincaid's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Dalton Kincaid projects as an efficient TE1 every week for the rest of the 2026 season: a weekly starter in TE-premium, 12-team and 10-team leagues. His efficiency (2.97 yards per route run, 1st of 82 TEs in 2025) supports that. His route participation (36.0% route participation, 47th of 81 TEs in 2025) holds him back. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Dalton Kincaid's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Dalton Kincaid is the TE6 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in TE1 territory, a weekly starter in 12-team leagues.
What is Dalton Kincaid's projected role going forward?
Dalton Kincaid is the listed starting TE, with Dawson Knox next on the depth chart. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
Will Dalton Kincaid get more targets?
Dalton Kincaid's targets are holding steady: 5.5 a game over his last two games against 5.7 for the season. His share of the offense is what his fantasy value rides on.
What is Dalton Kincaid's fantasy football upside?
Dalton Kincaid's upside: his ceiling this season is 22.5 PPR points (Week 2, TE3), his efficiency (2.97 yards per route run, 1st of 82 TEs in 2025) gives him a weekly floor to build on and the Raiders in Week 6 is a top-10 matchup for TEs.
What could hurt Dalton Kincaid's fantasy value?
Dalton Kincaid's risks: Dawson Knox is next on the depth chart if he is benched or hurt, his route participation (36.0% route participation, 47th of 81 TEs in 2025) limits his scoring and the Patriots in Week 4 and the Rams in Week 5 are tough matchups. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Dalton Kincaid's remaining fantasy schedule?
Difficult: of his next seven games, 2 come against a top-10 matchup for TEs and 4 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.