AFC East · 2026 Season
Buffalo Bills
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Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills Usage & Opportunity Report 2026
Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday
Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.
- Pass rate over expected−1.2%15thThrows about as much as situations call for — the target tree, not the play-calling, decides who eats
- Red-zone pass rate52%23rdRun-first inside the 20 — Allen's legs cap the receivers' TDs
- Neutral pace31.3s4th fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations — a fast offense means more snaps for every starter
- Plays per game59.716thOffensive plays a game — league-average volume, so shares decide it
- Team xFP / game91.112thTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates
The Target Tree
All 86 Bills pass attempts through Week 4
- DJ Moore 20.9%
- Dalton Kincaid 19.8%
- Khalil Shakir 17.4%
- Keon Coleman 10.5%
- James Cook 9.3%
- Palmer/Knox/Johnson 15.1%
- Everyone else 2.3%
- No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 4.7%
The Backfield Split
Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.
- James Cook 88.1%
- Ty Johnson 9.5%
- Ray Davis 1.2%
- Other backs 1.2%
Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.
- 24.7Cook weighted opps/game — RB8 in the NFL
- 13Cook high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
- 8.0Johnson weighted opps/game
- +1.8Cook wOpp/g vs. last season — role grew, not just efficiency
Why Cook's floor holds in PPR: He keeps 67% of the backfield's targets as well as the early downs, so his catches don't depend on game script — a 23-catch pace. Trailing by 7+, he still gets 77% of the backs' work — no one takes the hurry-up snaps from him.
The Johnson math if Cook misses time: Johnson is next in line by weighted opportunities. A Cook absence projects Johnson to ~61% of weighted opportunities — about 20.4 a game, an RB2 by volume — worth a bench spot in deeper leagues.
Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap
- -1.52 attLeft end
- 4.98 attLeft tackle
- 5.356 attMiddle
- 5.08 attRight tackle
- 6.03 attRight end
Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.
The interior is the run game's engine: 5.3 yards per carry up the middle on 56 attempts, 73% of all designed runs. The edges are a change-up, not the plan — when an interior lineman sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.
Where Allen Attacks
Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4
- 6%0.0 YPADeep left
- 6%15.4 YPADeep middle
- 6%31.6 YPADeep right
Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards
- 24%8.8 YPAShort left
- 22%9.5 YPAShort middle · Kincaid
- 36%6.0 YPAShort right
The short middle is the efficiency engine (9.5 YPA) — and it's Kincaid's territory. Allen keeps 83% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep right his most explosive zone (31.6 YPA on 5 attempts). Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.
| Profile | Player | Opportunity (WOPR) | Target share | Snap share | RZ touches | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James CookRB1, 91% of RB touchesRB8 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 91% | 9.3%−10.0 vs W1 | 71%−5 vs W1 | 113 · 5 · 3 — leads team | Set & forget | |
The locked-in workhorse. A 100% share of the backs' red-zone work is the RB stat that tracks fantasy points best, and 5 green-zone carries put him at the goal line. Production is running +0.7 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| DJ MooreWR1WR29 in target share, NFL | 0.54strong — elite at 0.60 | 20.9%+10.9 vs W1 | 55%−12 vs W1 | 2 ▲0 · 0 · 2 | Set & forget | |
The alpha profile, fully formed. A 32.2% air-yards share clears the 30% alpha threshold, a 23.6% first-read share says the offense is designed through him, and a 15.8-yard aDOT keeps his ceiling high and his floor jumpy. Production is running right at expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Dalton KincaidTE1TE6 in target share, NFL | 0.47elite for TE | 19.8%−9.2 vs W1 | 68%−5 vs W1 | 10 · 1 · 0 | Starter | |
A starter's share without the alpha tag. A 19.8% target share and 11 expected points a game, with a 21.8% first-read share; a 24.7% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. He's scoring +3.8 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 11 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| Khalil ShakirWR2WR42 in target share, NFL | 0.36flex range | 17.4%−9.2 vs W1 | 58%+20 vs W1 | 43 · 0 · 1 | Starter | |
A starter's share without the alpha tag. A 17.4% target share and 10.4 expected points a game, with a 21.8% first-read share; a 13.9% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. He's −4.9 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Keon ColemanWR3WR71 in target share, NFL | 0.25below startable | 10.5%+4.3 vs W1 | 59%steady | 10 · 1 · 0 | Volatile | |
Not enough of the pie. A 10.5% target share is under the line where weekly fantasy value lives, and a 12.7% first-read share says he's rarely the design. He needs an injury above him or a role change, not a better matchup. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Josh AllenQB1QB1 in xFP/game, NFL | —every dropback | —the passer | 100%steady | 7 ▲1 · 3 · 3 | Set & forget | |
The goal-line QB. 5 green-zone carries in 3 games and a 13.7% designed-run rate — with a 40% pass rate inside the 10, the most valuable real estate in fantasy goes to his legs as often as his arm. His xFP alone (QB1 league-wide) justifies the price before any efficiency. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs. | ||||||
How to read this table
- Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
- Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
- Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
- Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
- Stash the role behind the role
- WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
- + button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league
Buy low
Khalil Shakir
The volume is there and the points aren't — yet. 10.4 expected points a game against 5.5 actual is the gap that closes on its own. Trade for him before it does.
- 10.4xFP per game
- −4.9points vs. expected per game
Sell high
Dalton Kincaid
Season totals still read like a starter, but the share just fell to a season low. Name value currently exceeds trajectory.
- −9.2target share pts since W1
- 11.5%W3 share — season low
Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser like Shakir gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.
Explore StatChasers
- Fantasy Football ToolsThe #1 ranked fantasy football toolset.Open
- Advanced Player StatsDeeper numbers on every player in the league.Open
- Strength of ScheduleMatchup difficulty by fantasy position, including the playoff weeks.Open
- Fantasy Points AllowedHow Buffalo's defense performs against QB, RB, WR and TE.Open
Common questions
Who leads the Buffalo Bills in target share?
DJ Moore leads the Buffalo Bills with a 20.9% target share through Week 4, up 10.9 points since Week 1. Dalton Kincaid is second at 19.8%.