Joe Burrow 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 29
- Height / weight
- 6'4", 215 lb
- Experience
- 7th season
- Drafted
- 2020 R1, #1
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 18.0
- Pos rank
- QB15
- Rostered
- 98%
Week 4 vs. Jaguars, Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET 30th vs. QBs, tough
Joe Burrow Rest-of-Season Outlook
Volume-driven QB2 with streaming weeks
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished QB29 last season at 17.4 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 3 games he's QB15 at 18.0 PPR points per game, against 17.4 over 8 games last season (QB29). The role is producing the same fantasy output two years running.
Last season he ranked 9th of 41 in passing volume (32.4 attempts per game), 10th of 41 in efficiency (0.11 EPA per play) and 34th of 41 in rushing (5.1 rush yards per game). His points come from his passing volume. Rushing is the soft spot. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are his top two targets.
The main risk is the job itself. He's the listed starter with Joe Flacco next on the depth chart, and a benching or an injury would take his value to zero overnight.
The next favorable matchup is the Dolphins in Week 5 (6th against QBs).
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 16, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
The 2024 tape is the real Burrow: a wire-to-wire QB1 across all 17 games, piling up 372.8 fantasy points on 43 touchdowns against nine picks while posting a 0.159 EPA per play, a 51.1% success rate and a 6.8 CPOE that screamed best-quarterback-alive. A toe injury capped 2025 at eight games, yet even compromised he completed 66.8% of his throws with 17 scores to five interceptions, a 0.114 EPA per play and a still-excellent 4.7 CPOE. The accuracy never wavered.
That efficiency baseline is why the cratered counting stats lie. A full slate alongside Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in a fast-tempo, pass-leaning attack restores a top-three QB ceiling, and he profiles as a top-five pick at the position. The toe limited his scrambling to 14 carries; a return to mobility only widens the gap. Healthy, he is a value the moment passers come off the board.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 41 quarterbacks who played at least six games. Each bar is one quarterback, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Passing volume
Efficiency
Rushing
- Success rate
- 49.3%
- CPOE
- +4.7
- Sacks taken
- 17
- Pressure rate
- 21.7%
- Bad-throw rate
- 11.3%
- Deep-attempt rate
- 10.1%
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- A soft spotThe Dolphins in Week 5 is a top-10 matchup for QBs.Wk 4 JAX, 30thWk 5 MIA, 6thWk 7 BAL, 19thWk 8 TEN, 31st
- Heavy passing volume32.4 attempts per game, 9th of 41 QBs in 2025.
- Strong efficiency0.11 EPA per play, 10th of 41 QBs in 2025.
Risk
- Job securityJoe Flacco is next on the depth chart; a benching or injury hands him the job.
- Limited rushing5.1 rush yards per game, 34th of 41 QBs in 2025.
- Tough matchupsThe Jaguars in Week 4 (30th) and the Titans in Week 8 (31st) are among the stingiest defenses against QBs.
All Joe Burrow stats & analysis
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Joe Burrow Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Joe Burrow's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Joe Burrow projects as a volume-driven QB2 with streaming weeks for the rest of the 2026 season: a weekly starter in superflex and 2QB leagues and a streamer in 1QB leagues. His passing volume (32.4 attempts per game, 9th of 41 QBs in 2025) supports that. His rushing (5.1 rush yards per game, 34th of 41 QBs in 2025) holds him back. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Joe Burrow's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Joe Burrow is the QB15 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in QB2 territory, a streamer in 12-team 1QB leagues.
What is Joe Burrow's projected role going forward?
Joe Burrow is the listed starting QB, with Joe Flacco next on the depth chart. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
Will Joe Burrow get more pass attempts?
Joe Burrow's pass attempts are holding steady: 34.0 a game over his last two games against 34.3 for the season. Game script drives much of that, and trailing teams throw more.
What is Joe Burrow's fantasy football upside?
Joe Burrow's upside: his ceiling this season is 22.6 PPR points (Week 3, QB10), his passing volume (32.4 attempts per game, 9th of 41 QBs in 2025) gives him a weekly floor to build on and the Dolphins in Week 5 is a top-10 matchup for QBs.
What could hurt Joe Burrow's fantasy value?
Joe Burrow's risks: Joe Flacco is next on the depth chart if he is benched or hurt, his rushing (5.1 rush yards per game, 34th of 41 QBs in 2025) limits his scoring and the Jaguars in Week 4 and the Titans in Week 8 are tough matchups. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Joe Burrow's remaining fantasy schedule?
Difficult: of his next seven games, 2 come against a top-10 matchup for QBs and 3 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.