Tyler Shough 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 27
- Height / weight
- 6'5", 219 lb
- Experience
- 2nd season
- Drafted
- 2025 R2, #40
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 24.1
- Pos rank
- QB3
- Rostered
- 89%
Week 4 vs. Falcons, Mon Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET 13th vs. QBs, neutral
Tyler Shough Rest-of-Season Outlook
QB1 every week
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished QB26 last season at 14.9 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 3 games he's QB3 at 24.1 PPR points per game, against 14.9 over 11 games last season (QB26). He's running ahead of last season's pace.
Last season he ranked 21st of 41 in passing volume (29.7 attempts per game), 28th of 41 in efficiency (-0.018 EPA per play) and 20th of 41 in rushing (16.9 rush yards per game). Efficiency is the soft spot. Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele are his top two targets.
The job is secure: he's the listed starter and one of the best at his position. The main risk is health, and Spencer Rattler is next on the depth chart if he misses time.
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 17, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Shoughs rookie year offered modest promise: the 2025 second-rounder (pick 40, Louisville) played 11 games, completed 67.6 percent for 2,384 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, adding 186 rush yards and 3 scores for 158 fantasy points (QB25). The efficiency was league-average at best, with a -0.018 EPA per play, a 43.7 percent success rate, and a 10.9 percent deep-attempt rate pointing to a short, conservative passing profile.
The rushing element is the fantasy hook: 45 carries, 3 scores, and 27 red-zone attempts give him a weekly floor that pure pocket passers lack. But a 31-sack, 19.6 percent pressure rate behind a shaky New Orleans line capped the upside, and the 6 picks flag developmental risk. With a full season and continued mobility he could push toward back-end QB1 weeks. For now he is a late-round dart and a streaming option in superflex, not a set-and-forget starter.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 41 quarterbacks who played at least six games. Each bar is one quarterback, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Passing volume
Efficiency
Rushing
- Success rate
- 43.7%
- CPOE
- +1.6
- Sacks taken
- 31
- Pressure rate
- 19.6%
- Bad-throw rate
- 15.9%
- Deep-attempt rate
- 10.9%
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- The scheduleNone of his next four opponents is a top-10 matchup for QBs.Wk 4 ATL, 13thWk 5 MIN, 27thWk 6 NYG, 12thWk 7 PIT, 26th
Risk
- HealthHis role is secure; if he misses time, Spencer Rattler is next on the depth chart.
- Tough matchupsThe Vikings in Week 5 (27th) and the Steelers in Week 7 (26th) are among the stingiest defenses against QBs.
- Pressure and sacks31 sacks and a 19.6% pressure rate in 2025.
All Tyler Shough stats & analysis
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Tyler Shough Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Tyler Shough's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Tyler Shough projects as a qB1 every week for the rest of the 2026 season: a weekly starter in superflex and 2QB, 12-team 1QB and 10-team 1QB leagues. His efficiency (-0.018 EPA per play, 28th of 41 QBs in 2025) holds him back. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Tyler Shough's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Tyler Shough is the QB3 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in QB1 territory, a weekly starter in 12-team 1QB leagues.
What is Tyler Shough's projected role going forward?
Tyler Shough is the listed starting QB, with Spencer Rattler next on the depth chart. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
Will Tyler Shough get more pass attempts?
Tyler Shough's pass attempts are trending down: 38.0 a game over his last two games against 44.0 for the season. Game script drives much of that, and trailing teams throw more.
What is Tyler Shough's fantasy football upside?
Tyler Shough's upside: his ceiling this season is 25.2 PPR points (Week 1, QB6).
What could hurt Tyler Shough's fantasy value?
Tyler Shough's risks: Spencer Rattler is next on the depth chart if he is benched or hurt, his efficiency (-0.018 EPA per play, 28th of 41 QBs in 2025) limits his scoring and the Vikings in Week 5 and the Steelers in Week 7 are tough matchups. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Tyler Shough's remaining fantasy schedule?
Difficult: of his next seven games, 1 comes against a top-10 matchup for QBs and 2 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.