NFC South · 2026 Season
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints fantasy football hub
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints Usage & Opportunity Report 2026
Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday
Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.
- Pass rate over expected+1.6%8thThrows about as much as situations call for — the target tree, not the play-calling, decides who eats
- Red-zone pass rate65%5thThrows inside the 20 — Johnson's 4 end-zone targets lead the team
- Neutral pace29.9s2nd fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations — a fast offense means more snaps for every starter
- Plays per game73.31stOffensive plays a game — extra volume lifts every starter's floor
- Team xFP / game113.31stTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates — a rising tide for every starter
The Target Tree
All 131 Saints pass attempts through Week 4
- Chris Olave 27.5%
- Devaughn Vele 16.8%
- Juwan Johnson 14.5%
- Travis Etienne 9.9%
- Noah Fant 9.2%
- Lance/Kamara/Miller 13.7%
- Everyone else 3.1%
- No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 5.3%
The Backfield Split
Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.
- Travis Etienne 48.7%
- Alvin Kamara 27.8%
- Kendre Miller 16.5%
- Other backs 7.0%
Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.
- 18.7Etienne weighted opps/game — RB22 in the NFL
- 15Etienne high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
- 16.0Kamara weighted opps/game
- −2.7Etienne wOpp/g vs. last season — a smaller role than last season
Why Etienne's floor holds in PPR: He keeps 40% of the backs' third-down work as well as the early downs, so his catches don't depend on game script — a 62-catch pace. Trailing by 7+, he still gets 48% of the backs' work — no one takes the hurry-up snaps from him.
The Kamara math if Etienne misses time: Kamara backs up the early-down and red-zone roles (the valuable ones). A Etienne absence projects Kamara to ~57% of weighted opportunities — about 26.7 a game, a top-12 weekly RB by volume — and why he's a STASH, not a cut.
Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap
- 4.84 attLeft end
- 2.67 attLeft tackle
- 3.945 attMiddle
- 2.611 attRight tackle
- 2.25 attRight end
Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.
The interior is the run game's engine: 3.9 yards per carry up the middle on 45 attempts, 63% of all designed runs. The edges are a change-up, not the plan — when an interior lineman sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.
Where Shough Attacks
Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4
- 3%5.0 YPADeep left · Olave
- 4%18.4 YPADeep middle
- 4%21.0 YPADeep right
Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards
- 37%4.9 YPAShort left
- 8%8.7 YPAShort middle
- 45%6.4 YPAShort right
The short right is the efficiency engine (6.4 YPA). Shough keeps 89% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep right his most explosive zone (21 YPA on 5 attempts). Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.
| Profile | Player | Opportunity (WOPR) | Target share | Snap share | RZ touches | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris OlaveWR1WR5 in target share, NFL | 0.74elite | 27.5%+7.4 vs W1 | 84%steady | 4 ▲1 · 0 · 3 | Set & forget | |
The alpha profile, fully formed. A 46.9% air-yards share clears the 30% alpha threshold, a 34.7% first-read share says the offense is designed through him, and a 13.1-yard aDOT keeps his ceiling high and his floor jumpy. He's scoring +2.0 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 21.5 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Devaughn VeleWR2WR48 in target share, NFL | 0.41flex range | 16.8%−2.1 vs W1 | 91%steady | 31 · 1 · 1 | Flex | |
A starter's share without the alpha tag. A 16.8% target share and 13.7 expected points a game, with a 22.7% first-read share; a 22.5% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. Production is running −0.9 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Travis EtienneRB1, 48% of RB touchesRB22 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 48% | 9.9%−11.6 vs W1 | 51%−21 vs W1 | 63 · 0 · 3 — leads team | Starter | |
A shared backfield. 49% of the weighted opportunities means another back takes a real cut every week, so his floor rises and falls with game script. He's −2.7 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Juwan JohnsonTE1TE14 in target share, NFL | 0.29streamer range | 14.5%+6.3 vs W1 | 68%−22 vs W1 | 63 · 1 · 2 | Volatile | |
The role is arriving before the box score does. His target share has run 13% → 12% → 19% over the last 3 games. Volume that is growing this fast gets repriced the week it scores. He's scoring +3.7 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 12.4 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| Noah FantTE2TE30 in target share, NFL | 0.18below startable | 9.2%−5.0 vs W1 | 47%+16 vs W1 | 3 ▲1 · 0 · 2 | Volatile | |
The ceiling problem in two numbers: a 6.1% air-yards share and a 5.1 aDOT. His targets travel nowhere, so even a healthy target share converts to modest yardage. He's scoring +5.0 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 11.3 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| Alvin KamaraRB2 · handcuff, 28% of RB touchesRB29 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 28% | 5.3%−15.2 vs W2 | 19%steady | 3– · 2 · 1 | Stash | |
Contingent value, quantified. The 28% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Etienne misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Kendre MillerRB3 · handcuff, 18% of RB touchesRB49 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 18% | 2.3%+7.1 vs W1 | 17%−10 vs W1 | 22 · – · 0 | Stash | |
Contingent value, quantified. The 18% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Etienne misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Tyler ShoughQB1QB2 in xFP/game, NFL | —every dropback | —the passer | 100%steady | 51 · 4 · 0 | Set & forget | |
A pocket passer's profile. 2 green-zone carries and a 3.4% scramble rate: his points have to come through the air, so his weekly range follows the pass volume (QB2 in expected points). Production is running +0.1 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs. | ||||||
How to read this table
- Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
- Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
- Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
- Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
- Stash the role behind the role
- WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
- + button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league
Buy low
Juwan Johnson
The role is arriving before the box score does. Trade for him this week — not after the two-touchdown game makes it obvious to your league.
- +6.3target share pts since W1
- 12.4xFP per game
Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser like Johnson gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.
Explore StatChasers
- Fantasy Football ToolsThe #1 ranked fantasy football toolset.Open
- Advanced Player StatsDeeper numbers on every player in the league.Open
- Strength of ScheduleMatchup difficulty by fantasy position, including the playoff weeks.Open
- Fantasy Points AllowedHow New Orleans's defense performs against QB, RB, WR and TE.Open
Common questions
Who leads the New Orleans Saints in target share?
Chris Olave leads the New Orleans Saints with a 27.5% target share through Week 4, up 7.4 points since Week 1. Devaughn Vele is second at 16.8%.