Too close to call: Caleb Williams (15.4) and Baker Mayfield (15.3) project within 0.1 PPR points of each other in Week 8, and Caleb Williams faces the 2nd-toughest defense against QBs.
Updated Oct 30, 7:29 AM ET
| Caleb Williams QB · CHI | Baker Mayfield QB · TB | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 8, avg of sources) | 15.4 | 15.3 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 11.3 | 12.9 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 16.8 | 16.5 |
| StatChasers projection | 16.8 (QB15) | 16.5 (QB16) |
| Opponent | vs SEA | vs ATL |
| Opponent vs. position | 2nd-toughest (11.6 pts/g allowed) | 13th-softest (18.0 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | — | — |
| Position | QB | QB |
| Our call | FLEX · Streamer | FLEX · Streamer |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
It is a coin flip. Caleb Williams projects for 15.4 PPR points and Baker Mayfield for 15.3, within 0.1 of each other.
Break the tie with the floor if you are favored this week, and with the ceiling if you need a big game to win.
They are projected almost level: 15.4 PPR points for Caleb Williams and 15.3 for Baker Mayfield.
The sources range from 11.3 to 16.8 for Williams and from 12.9 to 16.5 for Mayfield. Either result is well inside both ranges.
Baker Mayfield is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Mayfield at 12.9 PPR points, against 11.3 for Caleb Williams.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Caleb Williams has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Williams at 16.8 PPR points, against 16.5 for Baker Mayfield.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Caleb Williams plays SEA and Baker Mayfield plays ATL in Week 8.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Williams faces the 2nd-toughest defense against QBs and Mayfield faces the 13th-softest defense against QBs, so Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Caleb Williams nor Baker Mayfield has an injury designation for Week 8.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Caleb Williams is projected by 6 of them and Baker Mayfield by 6.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.