Final2021 Week 11

Highmark Stadium (Old), Orchard Park, NY

Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills, Week 11 2021

Indianapolis Colts

AwayWon

41

Buffalo Bills

Home

15

Scoring by quarter
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Colts141014341
Bills070815

IND 41BUF 15 Final

  • Passing leader

    Josh Allen

    BUF · QB

    18.2PPR pts

    21/35, 209 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT

  • Top fantasy scorer

    Jonathan Taylor

    IND · RB

    53.4PPR pts

    32 ATT, 185 YDS, 4 TD, 3 REC, 19 REC YDS, 1 REC TD

  • Bills leader

    Stefon Diggs

    BUF · WR

    18.3PPR pts

    4 REC, 23 YDS, 2 TD

  • Defensive playmaker

    George Odum

    IND

    1 INT, 6 TKL

Colts 41, Bills 15: Indianapolis leads from start to finish

Indianapolis led 24–7 at halftime and outscored Buffalo 17–8 after the break to win 41–15. The Colts finished with a 370–311 edge in total offense.

The Bills went 5-for-10 on third down and committed four turnovers, while the Colts kept the ball for 37:47 and finished without a giveaway.

Key advantages

  • +4 turnover margin IND 0 turnovers
  • +59 total yards IND 370 · BUF 311
  • +17% third-down rate IND 67% · BUF 50%

Game Highlights

Official NFL highlights · Opens from YouTube

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Why the Colts Won

Indianapolis won the turnover, third-down, and time of possession battles.

Team stats comparison, Colts vs Bills
ColtsStatBills
0Turnovers4
370Total yards311
67%Third-down conversion50%
Other team stats
5.6Yards per play5.8
66Plays54
37:47Time of possession22:13

Scoring Summary

The Colts scored five touchdowns and two field goals; the Bills scored two touchdowns.

Scoring plays, Colts vs Bills
TimeTeamPlayINDBUF
1st quarter
8:55INDJonathan Taylor 3-yard TD run Takes leadMichael Badgley XP70
1:38INDCarson Wentz → Jonathan Taylor, 23-yard TD Extends leadMichael Badgley XP140
2nd quarter
10:44BUFJosh Allen → Stefon Diggs, 6-yard TDTyler Bass XP147
2:12INDMichael Badgley 36-yard FG Extends lead177
1:59INDJonathan Taylor 2-yard TD run Extends leadMichael Badgley XP247
3rd quarter
5:27INDJonathan Taylor 10-yard TD run Extends leadMichael Badgley XP317
0:58INDJonathan Taylor 1-yard TD run Extends leadMichael Badgley XP387
4th quarter
12:42BUFJosh Allen → Stefon Diggs, 9-yard TDJosh Allen 2-pt run3815
6:23INDMichael Badgley 35-yard FG Extends lead4115

Fantasy Points: Colts vs Bills, Week 11 2021

Fantasy leaders

  1. Jonathan TaylorINDRB53.4 PTSRB1
  2. Stefon DiggsBUFWR18.3 PTSWR17
  3. Josh AllenBUFQB17.2 PTSQB13
  4. Dawson KnoxBUFTE14.0 PTSTE6

Player Stats

Quarterbacks

Quarterback statistics
PlayerFPTSFINCMP/ATTPass YDSTDINTRush ATTRush YDSRush TDRateStart/Sit
Josh AllenBUFQB17.2QB1321/3520922218072.2Start/Sit →
Carson WentzINDQB9.0QB2211/2010610218086.7Start/Sit →
Mitchell TrubiskyBUFQB-0.2—3/51901———28.3Start/Sit →
Sam EhlingerINDQB0.9QB32————190—

WRs, RBs, & TEs

Receiver, running back and tight end statistics
PlayerFPTSFINPOSRush ATTRush YDSRush TDTGTRECRec YDSRec TDStart/Sit
Jonathan TaylorINDRB53.4RB1RB32185433191Start/Sit →
Stefon DiggsBUFWR18.3WR17WR———64232Start/Sit →
Dawson KnoxBUFTE14.0TE6TE———106800Start/Sit →
Matt BreidaBUFRB7.7RB25RB551021160
Devin SingletaryBUFRB7.3RB29RB317043260Start/Sit →
Cole BeasleyBUFWR6.3WR57WR———54230
Jack DoyleINDTE6.0TE24TE———53300
Emmanuel SandersBUFWR5.6WR60WR———53260
Gabe DavisBUFWR4.7WR67WR———42270
T.Y. HiltonINDWR4.6WR68WR———22260
Michael PittmanINDWR4.3WR73WR———52230
Nyheim Miller-HinesINDRB3.1RB48RB4310————
Kylen GransonINDTE1.8TE47TE———2180Start/Sit →
Reggie GilliamBUFRB1.7RB60RB———1170Start/Sit →
Deon JacksonINDRB1.2RB63RB6120————
Zach PascalINDWR0.9WR105WR1901000
Zack MossBUFRB0.5RB70RB3501000
Mo Alie-CoxINDTE0.0—TE———1000Start/Sit →
Tommy SweeneyBUFTE0.0—TE———1000
Dezmon PatmonINDWR0.0—WR———1000

Fantasy Usage

Indianapolis Colts

Snap Share

  1. Jonathan TaylorRB57 snaps83%
  2. Zach PascalWR54 snaps78%
  3. Michael PittmanWR52 snaps75%
  4. Jack DoyleTE51 snaps74%
  5. T.Y. HiltonWR28 snaps41%

Target Share20 targets

  1. Jack Doyle25%, 5 targets
  2. Michael Pittman25%, 5 targets
  3. Jonathan Taylor15%, 3 targets
  4. T.Y. Hilton10%, 2 targets
  5. Kylen Granson10%, 2 targets
  6. Other15%, 3 targets

Carry Share46 carries

  1. Jonathan Taylor70%, 32 carries
  2. Deon Jackson13%, 6 carries
  3. Nyheim Miller-Hines9%, 4 carries
  4. Carson Wentz4%, 2 carries
  5. Zach Pascal2%, 1 carries
  6. Other2%, 1 carries

Buffalo Bills

Snap Share

  1. Dawson KnoxTE55 snaps98%
  2. Emmanuel SandersWR44 snaps79%
  3. Stefon DiggsWR43 snaps77%
  4. Cole BeasleyWR32 snaps57%
  5. Devin SingletaryRB21 snaps38%

Target Share39 targets

  1. Dawson Knox26%, 10 targets
  2. Stefon Diggs15%, 6 targets
  3. Emmanuel Sanders13%, 5 targets
  4. Cole Beasley13%, 5 targets
  5. Devin Singletary10%, 4 targets
  6. Other23%, 9 targets

Carry Share13 carries

  1. Matt Breida38%, 5 carries
  2. Devin Singletary23%, 3 carries
  3. Zack Moss23%, 3 carries
  4. Josh Allen15%, 2 carries
View full usage tableHide full usage table
Offensive snaps and share for the skill positions
PlayerSNAPSSNAP %TGTTGT %CAR
Dawson KnoxBUFTE5598%1026%0
Jonathan TaylorINDRB5783%315%32
Emmanuel SandersBUFWR4479%513%0
Zach PascalINDWR5478%15%1
Stefon DiggsBUFWR4377%615%0
Michael PittmanINDWR5275%525%0
Jack DoyleINDTE5174%525%0
Cole BeasleyBUFWR3257%513%0
T.Y. HiltonINDWR2841%210%0
Mo Alie-CoxINDTE2841%15%0
Devin SingletaryBUFRB2138%410%3
Kylen GransonINDTE2435%210%0
Gabe DavisBUFWR1934%410%0
Matt BreidaBUFRB1832%25%5
Ashton DulinINDWR2029%00%0
Zack MossBUFRB1629%13%3
Tommy SweeneyBUFTE1323%13%0
Nyheim Miller-HinesINDRB1319%00%4
Isaiah McKenzieBUFWR916%00%0
Dezmon PatmonINDWR913%15%0
Reggie GilliamBUFRB713%13%0
Deon JacksonINDRB710%00%6

Fantasy Points vs Expected

Expected points (xFP) are what a player's pass attempts, carries and targets are worth at the league's average rates; the difference is what the player made of them.

  • Biggest overperformer+27.8Jonathan Taylor53.4 PTS vs 25.6 xFP
  • Biggest underperformer−4.1Michael Pittman Jr.4.3 PTS vs 8.4 xFP
  • Highest expected volume25.6 xFPJonathan Taylor53.4 PTS scored
Usage and expected fantasy points
PlayerPTSxFPvs xFPSnap%UsageRte%Pass attCarCar%TgtTgt%
Jonathan TaylorIND · RB53.425.6+27.883%70% car—03270%315%
Dawson KnoxBUF · TE14.016.8−2.898%26% tgt—000%1026%
Josh AllenBUF · QB18.216.7+1.589%35 att—35215%00%
Carson WentzIND · QB10.010.1−0.190%20 att—2024%00%
Stefon DiggsBUF · WR18.310.1+8.277%15% tgt—000%615%
Devin SingletaryBUF · RB7.38.7−1.438%23% car—0323%410%
Cole BeasleyBUF · WR6.38.4−2.157%13% tgt—000%513%
Emmanuel SandersBUF · WR5.68.4−2.879%13% tgt—000%513%
Jack DoyleIND · TE6.08.4−2.474%25% tgt—000%525%
Michael Pittman Jr.IND · WR4.38.4−4.175%25% tgt—000%525%
Gabe DavisBUF · WR4.76.7−2.034%10% tgt—000%410%
Matt BreidaBUF · RB7.76.6+1.132%38% car—0538%25%
Deon JacksonIND · RB1.23.9−2.710%13% car—0613%00%
Zack MossBUF · RB0.53.6−3.129%23% car—0323%13%
Kylen GransonIND · TE1.83.4−1.635%10% tgt—000%210%
T.Y. HiltonIND · WR4.63.4+1.241%10% tgt—000%210%
Nyheim HinesIND · —3.12.6+0.5—9% car—049%00%
Zach PascalIND · WR0.92.3−1.478%5% tgt—012%15%
Mitchell TrubiskyBUF · QB-0.22.2−2.411%5 att—500%00%
Dezmon PatmonIND · WR0.01.7−1.713%5% tgt—000%15%
Mo Alie-CoxIND · TE0.01.7−1.741%5% tgt—000%15%
Reggie GilliamBUF · RB1.71.70.013%3% tgt—000%13%
Tommy SweeneyBUF · TE0.01.7−1.723%3% tgt—000%13%
Sam EhlingerIND · QB0.90.6+0.310%0 att—012%00%

Team totals: Colts 20 targets and 46 carries; Bills 39 targets and 13 carries. Shares are from the box score. Snap counts are from the weekly player logs (Sleeper), and include plays wiped out by penalties. Route counts, air yards and red-zone touches appear when the tracking feed is connected. League-average rates from the 2021 season: 1.68 PPR points per target (67% catch rate), 0.64 per carry and 0.44 per pass attempt. They don't adjust for field position or target depth.

Fantasy Verdicts

Carson Wentz

IND · QB · 10.0 pts on 10.1 expected

11 of 20 passing for 106 yards, 1 touchdown; 2 carries for 18 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 10.1 expected.

Start/Sit: Carson Wentz →

Josh Allen

BUF · QB · 18.2 pts on 16.7 expected

21 of 35 passing for 209 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 interceptions; 2 carries for 18 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 16.7 expected.

Start/Sit: Josh Allen →

Jonathan Taylor Ran hot

IND · RB · 53.4 pts on 25.6 expected

3 targets (15% of the team's), 3 catches for 19 yards and 1 touchdown; 32 carries (70% of the team's) for 185 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Verdict: The opportunities were worth 25.6 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.

Start/Sit: Jonathan Taylor →

Jack Doyle

IND · TE · 6.0 pts on 8.4 expected

5 targets (25% of the team's), 3 catches for 30 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 8.4 expected.

Dawson Knox

BUF · TE · 14.0 pts on 16.8 expected

10 targets (26% of the team's), 6 catches for 80 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 16.8 expected.

Start/Sit: Dawson Knox →

Stefon Diggs Ran hot

BUF · WR · 18.3 pts on 10.1 expected

6 targets (15% of the team's), 4 catches for 23 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Verdict: The opportunities were worth 10.1 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.

Start/Sit: Stefon Diggs →

Kylen Granson

IND · TE · 1.8 pts on 3.4 expected

2 targets (10% of the team's), 1 catch for 8 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 3.4 expected.

Start/Sit: Kylen Granson →

Michael Pittman Jr.

IND · WR · 4.3 pts on 8.4 expected

5 targets (25% of the team's), 2 catches for 23 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 8.4 expected.

Stock Up, Stock Down

Indianapolis Colts

  • Stock up: Jonathan Taylor played 83% of the snaps, up from a 61% season average.
  • Stock up: Kylen Granson played 35% of the snaps, up from a 15% season average.
  • Stock down: Michael Pittman Jr. played 75% of the snaps, down from a 91% season average.

Buffalo Bills

  • Stock up: Devin Singletary led the backfield with 38% of the snaps after trailing Zack Moss before this game.
  • Stock up: Dawson Knox played 98% of the snaps, up from a 80% season average.
  • Stock up: Matt Breida played 32% of the snaps, up from a 10% season average.

Fantasy Matchups

Fantasy points allowed per game by position, 2021 through Week 18.

Fantasy points allowed per game by position, Colts defense and Bills defense
Points allowed toColts DBills D
QBs16.612.2
RBs19.520.4
WRs32.823.8
TEs14.47.6

Regular season, summed from each game's box score and scored with this page's rules.

How the Game Swung

Buffalo opened at 70% win probability and fell below 2% in the third quarter.

Bills win probability

Bills win probability by game minuteBills started at 70%, stood at 8% at halftime and finished at 0%, across 9 scoring plays.Q1Q2Q3Q4100%50%0%

Key Swings

  1. −21Taylor 3-yd TD run69% → 48%Q1 8:55
  2. −21Wentz → Taylor, 23-yd TD45% → 24%Q1 1:38
  3. +22Allen → Diggs, 6-yd TD20% → 42%Q2 10:44
  4. −11Badgley 36-yd FG37% → 26%Q2 2:12
  5. −17Taylor 2-yd TD run26% → 9%Q2 1:59

Swing in Bills win probability, in points

Play Calling and Possessions

Play calling, Colts vs Bills
Indianapolis ColtsMeasureBuffalo Bills
66Plays54
30%Pass rate76%
5.3Yds / dropback5.4
5.7Yds / carry7.0
8/12Third downs5/10

Efficiency edge Indianapolis ran 12 more plays than Buffalo.

  • Top targets
  • IND Doyle 25% · Pittman 25% · Taylor 15%
  • BUF Knox 26% · Diggs 15% · Beasley 13%

Possession Results

How each possession ended, Colts vs Bills
ResultINDBUF
Touchdowns52
Field goals20
Punts11
Turnovers04
Turnovers on downs10
Missed field goals02

IND turnover edge: +4

  • The Colts opened the scoring on their first possession, a 11-play, 65-yard drive that ended in a touchdown.
  • The Colts scored touchdowns on two of their first three drives, then drained the clock with two second-half drives of four to seven minutes.
All 19 possessions, drive by drive
Drive chart
TeamStartPlaysYardsTimeResult
INDQ1 15:0011656:05Touchdown
BUFQ1 8:558324:57Interception
INDQ1 3:585572:20Touchdown
BUFQ1 1:3811735:54Touchdown
INDQ2 10:4415588:32Field goal
BUFQ2 2:12000:09Fumble
INDQ2 2:03120:04Touchdown
BUFQ2 1:598371:59Missed FG
BUFQ3 15:00300:35Punt
INDQ3 14:258343:43Punt
BUFQ3 10:427592:29Missed FG
INDQ3 8:135612:46Touchdown
BUFQ3 5:27320:58Interception
INDQ3 4:296243:31Touchdown
BUFQ3 0:5810773:16Touchdown
INDQ4 12:4210636:19Field goal
BUFQ4 6:235141:34Interception
INDQ4 4:497214:27Downs
BUFQ4 0:22180:22End of game
About these numbers

Possessions that ended with the clock running out at the half or the end of the game aren't counted.

Personnel groupings, average depth of target and pass rate over expected appear when the tracking feed is connected.

Colts vs Bills Head-to-Head

The Colts and Bills first met in 1970 and have played 73 times since.

All-time series
39–33–1Bills lead, 73 meetings since 1970
Postseason
1–0Bills won in 2020
Largest Colts win
43–01971
Largest Bills win
38–01992

Since 2021

1–1 Series tied

2 meetings since the 2021 season, regular season and playoffs.

Oldest to newest. C = Colts win, B = Bills win, outlined = this game.

Recent Meetings

Season to Date (Through Week 18)

The 2021 regular season, from each game's box score.

Season to date, Colts vs Bills
ColtsStatBills
9-8Record11-6
26.5Points per game28.4
347.1Yards per game381.9
5.6Yards per play5.7
21.5Points allowed per game17.0
343.2Yards allowed per game272.8

Colts vs Bills Odds and Results

How this game finished against the betting lines.

Spread
BUF −7Bills failed to cover by 33
Total
49.5Over: 56 points scored (by 6.5)

Expected vs Actual Scoring

Implied team totals against the actual score
TeamImpliedActualDifference
Bills28.315−13.3
Colts21.341+19.8

The Colts beat their implied total and the Bills fell short of theirs; the Fantasy tab has the player lines behind it.

Betting Trends

Each team's 2021 season through this game. Over/under is overs first.

Indianapolis Colts

Against the spread
7–4
Over/under
7–4
ATS as favorite
2–2
ATS as underdog
5–2
ATS on the road
4–1

Buffalo Bills

Against the spread
5–4–1
Over/under
5–5
ATS as favorite
4–4–1
ATS as underdog
1–0
ATS at home
2–2–1

Lines: ESPN's consensus, captured at kickoff. Individual sportsbooks varied.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Betting availability depends on your state.

Colts and Bills in Fantasy

The two teams don't meet again this season. If you roster a Colt or a Bill, these answer the week-to-week question.

Keep Exploring

2021 Game Logs for Players in This Game

Colts vs Bills Game FAQ

Who won the 2021 Colts vs Bills Week 11 game?

The Indianapolis Colts beat the Buffalo Bills 41–15 in Week 11 of the 2021 season. The game was played at Highmark Stadium (Old) in Orchard Park, NY, on November 21, 2021. See the Colts' 2021 schedule.

What was the final score of Colts vs Bills?

The final score was Colts 41, Bills 15. The Colts led 24–7 at halftime, and the second half went Colts 17, Bills 8.

What happened in the Colts vs Bills game?

Indianapolis led 24–7 at halftime and outscored Buffalo 17–8 after the break to win 41–15. The Colts finished with a 370–311 edge in total offense. Jonathan Taylor led all players with 3 catches for 19 yards and a touchdown, plus 32 carries for 185 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. The Bills committed 4 turnovers, the Colts none.

Who scored the most fantasy points in Colts vs Bills?

Jonathan Taylor led the game with 53.4 PPR fantasy points, the RB1 of Week 11, on 3 catches for 19 yards and a touchdown, plus 32 carries for 185 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. Stefon Diggs was next with 18.3 (WR17). See Jonathan Taylor's 2021 game log.

Who led Colts vs Bills in passing, rushing and receiving?

Josh Allen (BUF) led all passers with 21 of 35 for 209 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Jonathan Taylor (IND) led in rushing with 32 carries for 185 yards and 4 touchdowns. Dawson Knox (BUF) led in receiving with 6 catches for 80 yards.

How many fantasy points did Jonathan Taylor score against the Bills?

Jonathan Taylor scored 53.4 points in PPR leagues, 51.9 in half-PPR and 50.4 in standard scoring against the Bills in Week 11 of the 2021 season, on 3 catches for 19 yards and a touchdown, plus 32 carries for 185 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. He handled 70% of his team's carries.

Who outperformed and underperformed expected fantasy points in Colts vs Bills?

Jonathan Taylor outperformed his expected fantasy points the most, scoring 53.4 PPR points on 25.6 xFP (+27.8). Michael Pittman Jr. fell furthest short, with 4.3 points on 8.4 xFP (−4.1). A gap either way reflects efficiency and touchdowns in one game; it is not a forecast. For matchups ahead, see fantasy points allowed by position.

How did the Colts beat the Bills?

The Colts beat the Bills 41–15 because they won the turnover battle 4–0 and outgained them 370–311.

Which team won the turnover battle in Colts vs Bills?

The Colts won the turnover battle 4–0: the Bills gave the ball away 4 times and the Colts not at all. The Colts won the game.

What is the all-time Colts vs Bills record?

The Bills lead the all-time series 39–33–1 across 73 meetings since 1970, including a 1–0 record in the postseason.

When did the Colts and Bills last play before this game?

Before Week 11 of 2021, they last met in the 2020 playoffs on January 9, 2021, when the Bills beat the Colts 27–24.

Have the Colts and Bills met in the playoffs?

Yes, 1 time, most recently in the 2020 playoffs. The Colts are 0–1 against the Bills in the postseason.

What was the closing spread for Colts vs Bills?

The consensus closing spread at kickoff was Bills −7, making the Buffalo Bills 7-point favorites, with a closing total of 49.5. That implied about 28.3 points for the Bills and 21.3 for the Colts.

Did Colts vs Bills go over or under the total?

The game went over. The consensus closing total was 49.5, and the teams combined for 56 points, 6.5 over the number.

Who covered the spread in Colts vs Bills?

The Colts covered as 7-point underdogs against the closing line of Bills −7. The final margin was 26 points.