Final2025 AFC Wild Card

EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Buffalo Bills

AwayWon, advanced

27

Jacksonville Jaguars

Home

24

Scoring by quarter
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Bills3731427
Jaguars0731424

BUF 27JAX 24 Final

  • Passing leader

    Josh Allen

    BUF · QB

    30.2PPR pts

    28/35, 273 YDS, 1 TD, 2 RUSH TD

  • Top fantasy scorer

    Parker Washington

    JAX · WR

    23.9PPR pts

    7 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD

  • Jaguars leader

    Travis Etienne Jr.

    JAX · RB

    22.6PPR pts

    10 ATT, 67 YDS, 5 REC, 49 REC YDS, 1 REC TD

  • Defensive playmaker

    Shaq Thompson

    BUF

    1 INT, 8 TKL

Bills 27, Jaguars 24: Buffalo holds off Jacksonville in the 2025 Wild Card

Buffalo led 10–7 at halftime to win 27–24. Jacksonville outgained the Bills 359–340.

The Jaguars went 5-for-9 on third down and committed two turnovers, while the Bills kept the ball for 33:49.

The Bills' run ended in the Divisional Round, a 33–30 loss to the Broncos.

Key advantages

  • +1 turnover margin BUF 1 · JAX 2 turnovers
  • +7:38 time of possession BUF 33:49 · JAX 26:11

Game Highlights

Official NFL highlights · Opens from YouTube

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Why the Bills Won

Buffalo won the turnover and time of possession battles.

Team stats comparison, Bills vs Jaguars
BillsStatJaguars
1Turnovers2
33:49Time of possession26:11
Other team stats
340Total yards359
5.5Yards per play6.6
62Plays54
50%Third-down conversion56%

Scoring Summary

The Bills scored three touchdowns and two field goals; the Jaguars scored three touchdowns and one field goal.

Scoring plays, Bills vs Jaguars
TimeTeamPlayBUFJAX
1st quarter
2:54BUFMatt Prater 50-yard FG Takes lead30
2nd quarter
14:14JAXTrevor Lawrence → Brian Thomas Jr., 3-yard TD Takes leadCam Little XP37
5:37BUFJosh Allen 2-yard TD run Takes leadMatt Prater XP107
3rd quarter
8:12BUFMatt Prater 47-yard FG Extends lead137
5:47JAXCam Little 43-yard FG1310
4th quarter
12:55JAXTrevor Lawrence → Parker Washington, 6-yard TD Takes leadCam Little XP1317
8:56BUFJosh Allen → Dalton Kincaid, 15-yard TD Takes leadMatt Prater XP2017
4:03JAXTrevor Lawrence → Travis Etienne Jr., 14-yard TD Takes leadCam Little XP2024
1:04BUFJosh Allen 1-yard TD run Game winnerMatt Prater XP2724

Playoff game: these points don't count in most season-long fantasy leagues.

Fantasy Points vs Expected

Expected points (xFP) are what a player's pass attempts, carries and targets are worth at the league's average rates; the difference is what the player made of them.

  • Biggest overperformer+7.6Josh Allen30.2 PTS vs 22.6 xFP
  • Biggest underperformer−7.7James Cook III7.1 PTS vs 14.8 xFP
  • Highest expected volume22.6 xFPJosh Allen30.2 PTS scored
Usage and expected fantasy points
PlayerPTSxFPvs xFPSnap%UsageRte%Pass attCarCar%TgtTgt%
Josh AllenBUF · QB30.222.6+7.6—35 att—351142%00%
Parker WashingtonJAX · WR23.921.7+2.2—40% tgt—029%1240%
Khalil ShakirBUF · WR20.220.5−0.3—34% tgt—000%1234%
Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB21.417.2+4.2—30 att—30626%00%
Travis Etienne Jr.JAX · RB22.615.0+7.6—43% car—01043%517%
James Cook IIIBUF · RB7.114.8−7.7—58% car—01558%39%
Brandin CooksBUF · WR8.88.5+0.3—14% tgt—000%514%
Brenton StrangeJAX · TE2.98.5−5.6—17% tgt—000%517%
Dalton KincaidBUF · TE11.88.5+3.3—14% tgt—000%514%
Jakobi MeyersJAX · WR2.26.8−4.6—13% tgt—000%413%
Dawson KnoxBUF · TE6.05.1+0.9—9% tgt—000%39%
Gabe DavisBUF · WR3.45.1−1.7—9% tgt—000%39%
Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · WR10.13.4+6.7—7% tgt—000%27%
Tyrell ShaversBUF · WR2.43.4−1.0—6% tgt—000%26%
Bhayshul TutenJAX · RB5.12.6+2.5—17% car—0417%00%
LeQuint Allen Jr.JAX · RB2.22.4−0.2—4% car—014%13%
Frank Gore Jr.BUF · —1.61.7−0.1—3% tgt—000%13%
Keon ColemanBUF · WR4.61.7+2.9—3% tgt—000%13%
Tim PatrickJAX · WR0.01.7−1.7—3% tgt—000%13%

Team totals: Bills 35 targets and 26 carries; Jaguars 30 targets and 23 carries. Shares are from the box score. Snap counts aren't available for this game. Route counts, air yards and red-zone touches appear when the tracking feed is connected. League-average rates from the 2025 season: 1.70 PPR points per target (67% catch rate), 0.65 per carry and 0.44 per pass attempt. They don't adjust for field position or target depth.

Fantasy Verdicts

Josh Allen Ran hot

BUF · QB · 30.2 pts on 22.6 expected

28 of 35 passing for 273 yards, 1 touchdown; 11 carries for 33 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Verdict: The opportunities were worth 22.6 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.

Start/Sit: Josh Allen →

Trevor Lawrence

JAX · QB · 21.4 pts on 17.2 expected

18 of 30 passing for 207 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions; 6 carries for 31 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 17.2 expected.

Start/Sit: Trevor Lawrence →

Khalil Shakir Volume, no payoff

BUF · WR · 20.2 pts on 20.5 expected

12 targets (34% of the team's), 12 catches for 82 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 20.5 expected.

Start/Sit: Khalil Shakir →

James Cook III Unlucky

BUF · RB · 7.1 pts on 14.8 expected

3 targets (9% of the team's), 2 catches for 5 yards; 15 carries (58% of the team's) for 46 yards.

Verdict: The role was there, worth 14.8 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.

Parker Washington Strong role

JAX · WR · 23.9 pts on 21.7 expected

12 targets (40% of the team's), 7 catches for 107 yards and 1 touchdown; 2 carries (9% of the team's) for 2 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 21.7 expected.

Start/Sit: Parker Washington →

Travis Etienne Jr. Ran hot

JAX · RB · 22.6 pts on 15.0 expected

5 targets (17% of the team's), 5 catches for 49 yards and 1 touchdown; 10 carries (43% of the team's) for 67 yards.

Verdict: The opportunities were worth 15.0 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.

Brenton Strange Unlucky

JAX · TE · 2.9 pts on 8.5 expected

5 targets (17% of the team's), 2 catches for 9 yards.

Verdict: The role was there, worth 8.5 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.

Start/Sit: Brenton Strange →

Brian Thomas Jr. Ran hot

JAX · WR · 10.1 pts on 3.4 expected

2 targets (7% of the team's), 2 catches for 21 yards and 1 touchdown.

Verdict: The opportunities were worth 3.4 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.

Fantasy Matchups

Fantasy points allowed per game by position, 2025 through Week 18.

Fantasy points allowed per game by position, Bills defense and Jaguars defense
Points allowed toBills DJaguars D
QBs13.616.9
RBs24.417.7
WRs25.930.4
TEs7.514.8

Regular season, summed from each game's box score and scored with this page's rules.

How the Game Swung

Jacksonville opened at 54% win probability, climbed as high as 99%, then lost.

Jaguars win probability

Jaguars win probability by game minuteJaguars started at 54%, stood at 41% at halftime and finished at 0%, across 9 scoring plays.Q1Q2Q3Q4100%50%0%

Key Swings

  1. −26Allen 2-yd TD run68% → 42%Q2 5:37
  2. +42Lawrence → Washington, 6-yd TD33% → 75%Q4 12:55
  3. −49Allen → Kincaid, 15-yd TD79% → 30%Q4 8:56
  4. +67Lawrence → Etienne, 14-yd TD20% → 88%Q4 4:03
  5. −94Allen 1-yd TD run99% → 5%Q4 1:04

Swing in Jaguars win probability, in points

Play Calling and Possessions

Play calling, Bills vs Jaguars
Buffalo BillsMeasureJacksonville Jaguars
62Plays54
58%Pass rate57%
7.3Yds / dropback6.6
3.0Yds / carry6.7
7/14Third downs5/9

Efficiency edge Buffalo ran 8 more plays and gained 0.7 more yards per dropback.

  • Top targets
  • BUF Shakir 34% · Cooks 14% · Kincaid 14%
  • JAX Washington 40% · Strange 17% · Etienne 17%

Possession Results

How each possession ended, Bills vs Jaguars
ResultBUFJAX
Touchdowns33
Field goals21
Punts32
Turnovers12
Turnovers on downs01
Missed field goals01

BUF turnover edge: +1

  • The Bills opened the scoring on their second possession, a 4-play, 1-yard drive that ended in a field goal.
All 20 possessions, drive by drive
Drive chart
TeamStartPlaysYardsTimeResult
JAXQ1 15:00321:31Punt
BUFQ1 13:298325:38Punt
JAXQ1 7:515202:36Interception
BUFQ1 5:15412:21Field goal
JAXQ1 2:547653:40Touchdown
BUFQ2 14:14000:09Fumble
JAXQ2 14:056282:46Downs
BUFQ2 11:1910925:42Touchdown
JAXQ2 5:37341:02Punt
BUFQ2 4:358223:30Punt
JAXQ2 1:054611:05Missed FG
BUFQ3 15:0011456:48Field goal
JAXQ3 8:126402:25Field goal
BUFQ3 5:473-101:49Punt
JAXQ3 3:5811626:03Touchdown
BUFQ4 12:559653:59Touchdown
JAXQ4 8:5610774:53Touchdown
BUFQ4 4:039662:59Touchdown
JAXQ4 1:04100:10Interception
BUFQ4 0:542-20:54End of game
About these numbers

Possessions that ended with the clock running out at the half or the end of the game aren't counted.

Personnel groupings, average depth of target and pass rate over expected appear when the tracking feed is connected.

Bills vs Jaguars Head-to-Head

The Bills and Jaguars first met in 1996 and have played 21 times since.

All-time series
11–10Bills lead, 21 meetings since 1996
Postseason
2–1Jaguars won in 1996 and 2017; Bills won in 2025
Largest Bills win
47–102024
Largest Jaguars win
36–142007

Since 2021

2–2 Series tied

4 meetings since the 2021 season, regular season and playoffs.

Oldest to newest. B = Bills win, J = Jaguars win, outlined = this game.

Recent Meetings

Season to Date (Through Week 18)

The 2025 regular season, from each game's box score.

Season to date, Bills vs Jaguars
BillsStatJaguars
12-5Record13-4
28.3Points per game27.9
376.3Yards per game337.4
5.9Yards per play5.2
21.5Points allowed per game19.8
293.1Yards allowed per game303.6

Bills vs Jaguars Odds and Results

How this game finished against the betting lines.

Spread
JAX −1.5Jaguars failed to cover by 4.5
Total
51.5Under: 51 points scored (by 0.5)

Expected vs Actual Scoring

Implied team totals against the actual score
TeamImpliedActualDifference
Jaguars26.524−2.5
Bills25.027+2.0

The Bills beat their implied total and the Jaguars fell short of theirs; the Fantasy tab has the player lines behind it.

Betting Trends

Last 2 meetings: Bills 1–1 ATS, unders 2–0.

Each team's 2025 season through this game. Over/under is overs first.

Buffalo Bills

Against the spread
4–3
Over/under
4–3
ATS as favorite
3–3
ATS as underdog
1–0
ATS on the road
3–1

Jacksonville Jaguars

Against the spread
6–1
Over/under
4–3
ATS as favorite
4–1
ATS as underdog
2–0
ATS at home
3–1

Lines: ESPN's consensus, captured at kickoff. Individual sportsbooks varied.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Betting availability depends on your state.

Bills and Jaguars in Fantasy

The two teams don't meet again this season. If you roster a Bill or a Jaguar, these answer the week-to-week question.

Keep Exploring

2025 Game Logs for Players in This Game

Bills vs Jaguars Game FAQ

Who won the 2025 Bills vs Jaguars Wild Card game?

The Buffalo Bills beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 27–24 in the Wild Card round of the 2025 playoffs. The game was played at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL, on January 11, 2026. See the Bills' 2025 schedule.

What was the final score of Bills vs Jaguars?

The final score was Bills 27, Jaguars 24. The Bills led 10–7 at halftime, and the second half went Bills 17, Jaguars 17.

What happened in the Bills vs Jaguars game?

Buffalo led 10–7 at halftime to win 27–24. Jacksonville outgained the Bills 359–340. The Jaguars committed 2 turnovers, the Bills 1.

What was the game-winning score in Bills vs Jaguars?

Josh Allen's 1-yard touchdown run with 1:04 left in the fourth quarter gave the Bills a 27–24 lead they never gave up. It was the final score of the game.

How did the Bills come back to beat the Jaguars?

The Bills' chances of winning fell as low as 1% in the fourth quarter. Josh Allen's 1-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter was the biggest swing of the game. Josh Allen's 1-yard touchdown run then put them ahead for good.

Which team won the turnover battle in Bills vs Jaguars?

The Bills won the turnover battle 2–1: the Jaguars gave the ball away 2 times and the Bills 1 time. The Bills won the game.

What was the turning point of Bills vs Jaguars?

Josh Allen's 1-yard touchdown run with 1:04 left in the fourth quarter was the biggest swing of the game, moving the Jaguars' win probability from 99% to 5%.

What is the all-time Bills vs Jaguars record?

The Bills lead the all-time series 11–10 across 21 meetings since 1996, including a 1–2 record in the postseason.

When did the Bills and Jaguars last play before this game?

Before the 2025 Wild Card round, they last met in the 2024 season on September 23, 2024, when the Bills beat the Jaguars 47–10.

Have the Bills and Jaguars met in the playoffs?

Yes, 3 times, most recently in the 2025 playoffs. The Bills are 1–2 against the Jaguars in the postseason.

What is the Bills vs Jaguars record since 2021?

The series is tied 2–2 across 4 meetings since the 2021 season, including this game.

What was the closing spread for Bills vs Jaguars?

The consensus closing spread at kickoff was Jaguars −1.5, making the Jacksonville Jaguars 1.5-point favorites, with a closing total of 51.5. That implied about 26.5 points for the Jaguars and 25.0 for the Bills.

Did Bills vs Jaguars go over or under the total?

The game went under. The consensus closing total was 51.5, and the teams combined for 51 points, 0.5 under the number.

Who covered the spread in Bills vs Jaguars?

The Bills covered as 1.5-point underdogs against the closing line of Jaguars −1.5. The final margin was 3 points.