Trevor Lawrence 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 26
- Height / weight
- 6'6", 220 lb
- Experience
- 6th season
- Drafted
- 2021 R1, #1
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 18.0
- Pos rank
- QB14
- Rostered
- 92%
Week 4 at Bengals, Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET 16th vs. QBs, neutral
Trevor Lawrence Rest-of-Season Outlook
Volume-driven QB2 with streaming weeks
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished QB4 last season at 20.6 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 3 games he's QB14 at 18.0 PPR points per game, against 20.6 over 17 games last season (QB4). He's running behind last season's pace.
Last season he ranked 8th of 41 in passing volume (32.9 attempts per game), 13th of 41 in efficiency (0.089 EPA per play) and 16th of 41 in rushing (21.1 rush yards per game). His points come from his passing volume. Rushing is the soft spot. Parker Washington and Brian Thomas are his top two targets.
The main risk is the job itself. He's the listed starter with Quinn Ewers next on the depth chart, and a benching or an injury would take his value to zero overnight.
The next favorable matchups are the Eagles in Week 5 (7th against QBs) and the Texans in Week 6 (9th against QBs).
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 17, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Lawrence delivered his best fantasy season in 2025, ranking QB6 with 338.2 points across a full 17 games, a huge bounce from the injury-shortened 10-game, 145.2-point 2024. The counting stats carried it: 4,007 passing yards, 29 touchdowns against 12 picks, plus a career-best rushing line of 359 yards and nine scores on 82 carries that adds a sturdy floor. That ground production is the engine here, because the passing efficiency remains middling, a 60.9 percent completion rate, a negative 1.9 CPOE, and just a 0.089 EPA per play.
The peripherals temper the optimism: a 14.4 percent bad-throw rate, 78 poor throws, and 41 sacks taken behind shaky protection at a 21.8 percent pressure rate. He is more a product of volume and rushing equity than elite accuracy, but nine rushing scores and 560 attempts give him a dependable ceiling. Draft him as a low-end QB1 with upside if Jacksonville upgrades the line; a solid floor in superflex.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 41 quarterbacks who played at least six games. Each bar is one quarterback, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Passing volume
Efficiency
Rushing
- Success rate
- 47.7%
- CPOE
- −1.9
- Sacks taken
- 41
- Pressure rate
- 21.8%
- Bad-throw rate
- 14.4%
- Deep-attempt rate
- 12.5%
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- A soft stretchThe Eagles in Week 5 and the Texans in Week 6 are top-10 matchups for QBs.Wk 4 CIN, 16thWk 5 PHI, 7thWk 6 HOU, 9thWk 8 IND, 5th
- Heavy passing volume32.9 attempts per game, 8th of 41 QBs in 2025.
- Strong efficiency0.089 EPA per play, 13th of 41 QBs in 2025.
Risk
- Job securityQuinn Ewers is next on the depth chart; a benching or injury hands him the job.
- Pressure and sacks41 sacks and a 21.8% pressure rate in 2025.
All Trevor Lawrence stats & analysis
QBs like Trevor Lawrence
QB11Kirk CousinsRaiders59.2 PTS
QB12Jalen HurtsEagles56.5 PTS
QB13Matthew StaffordRams56.0 PTS
QB14You are hereTrevor LawrenceJaguars54.0 PTS
QB15Joe BurrowBengals53.9 PTS
QB16Jordan LovePackers53.8 PTS
QB17Geno SmithJets50.9 PTS
Trevor Lawrence Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Trevor Lawrence's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Trevor Lawrence projects as a volume-driven QB2 with streaming weeks for the rest of the 2026 season: a weekly starter in superflex and 2QB leagues and a streamer in 1QB leagues. His passing volume (32.9 attempts per game, 8th of 41 QBs in 2025) supports that. His rushing (21.1 rush yards per game, 16th of 41 QBs in 2025) holds him back. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Trevor Lawrence's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Trevor Lawrence is the QB14 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in QB2 territory, a streamer in 12-team 1QB leagues.
What is Trevor Lawrence's projected role going forward?
Trevor Lawrence is the listed starting QB, with Quinn Ewers next on the depth chart. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
Will Trevor Lawrence get more pass attempts?
Trevor Lawrence's pass attempts are holding steady: 29.0 a game over his last two games against 27.0 for the season. Game script drives much of that, and trailing teams throw more.
What is Trevor Lawrence's fantasy football upside?
Trevor Lawrence's upside: his ceiling this season is 26.1 PPR points (Week 1, QB5), his passing volume (32.9 attempts per game, 8th of 41 QBs in 2025) gives him a weekly floor to build on and the Eagles in Week 5 and the Texans in Week 6 are top-10 matchups for QBs.
What could hurt Trevor Lawrence's fantasy value?
Trevor Lawrence's risks: Quinn Ewers is next on the depth chart if he is benched or hurt and his rushing (21.1 rush yards per game, 16th of 41 QBs in 2025) limits his scoring. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Trevor Lawrence's remaining fantasy schedule?
Favorable: of his next seven games, 3 come against a top-10 matchup for QBs and 1 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.