NFC North · 2026 Season
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions fantasy football hub
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions Usage & Opportunity Report 2026
Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday
Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.
- Pass rate over expected+0.7%10thThrows about as much as situations call for — the target tree, not the play-calling, decides who eats
- Red-zone pass rate57%15thBalanced inside the 20 — Gibbs leads the team with 23 red-zone touches
- Neutral pace32.8s13th fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations
- Plays per game65.74thOffensive plays a game — extra volume lifts every starter's floor
- Team xFP / game107.53rdTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates — a rising tide for every starter
The Target Tree
All 109 Lions pass attempts through Week 4
- Amon-Ra St. Brown 32.1%
- Jahmyr Gibbs 19.3%
- Sam LaPorta 17.4%
- Jameson Williams 15.6%
- Isaac TeSlaa 8.3%
- Vaki/Wright/Meeks 6.4%
- No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 0.9%
The Backfield Split
Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.
- Jahmyr Gibbs 87.7%
- Sione Vaki 12.3%
Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.
- 35.7Gibbs weighted opps/game — RB1 in the NFL
- 30Gibbs high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
- 5.0Vaki weighted opps/game
- +10.3Gibbs wOpp/g vs. last season — role grew, not just efficiency
Why Gibbs's floor holds in PPR: He keeps 89% of the backs' third-down work as well as the early downs, so his catches don't depend on game script — a 102-catch pace. Trailing by 7+, he still gets 92% of the backs' work — no one takes the hurry-up snaps from him.
The Vaki math if Gibbs misses time: Vaki is next in line by weighted opportunities. A Gibbs absence projects Vaki to ~100% of weighted opportunities — about 40.7 a game, a top-12 weekly RB by volume — worth a bench spot in deeper leagues.
Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap
- 3.65 attLeft end
- 4.49 attLeft tackle
- 4.240 attMiddle
- 5.513 attRight tackle
- 7.17 attRight end
Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.
The right side is the run game's engine: 7.1 yards per carry off right end and 5.5 behind right tackle — 27% of all designed runs go that way, and two of Gibbs's three longest runs came off the right side. Interior volume (40 attempts) does the clock work at 4.2; the right edge does the damage. When the line's right side sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.
Where Goff Attacks
Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4
- 4%15.8 YPADeep left
- 1%27.0 YPADeep middle
- 1%0.0 YPADeep right
Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards
- 40%5.9 YPAShort left · Brown
- 20%8.8 YPAShort middle
- 34%7.0 YPAShort right · Brown
The short middle is the efficiency engine (8.8 YPA). Goff keeps 94% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep left his most explosive zone (15.8 YPA on 4 attempts). Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.
| Profile | Player | Opportunity (WOPR) | Target share | Snap share | RZ touches | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr GibbsRB1, 87% of RB touchesRB1 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 87% | 19.3%+12.2 vs W1 | 75%−5 vs W1 | 23 ▲8 · 5 · 10 — leads team | Set & forget | |
The locked-in workhorse. A 96% share of the backs' red-zone work is the RB stat that tracks fantasy points best, and 9 green-zone carries put him at the goal line. He's scoring +4.2 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 28.6 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR1WR2 in target share, NFL | 0.74elite | 32.1%−10.9 vs W1 | 86%−16 vs W1 | 94 · 2 · 3 | Set & forget | |
The alpha profile, fully formed. A 37.3% air-yards share clears the 30% alpha threshold, a 40.3% first-read share says the offense is designed through him, and a 7.9-yard aDOT keeps him on the move-the-chains throws. He's scoring +3.0 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 22.3 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Sam LaPortaTE1TE11 in target share, NFL | 0.33streamer range | 17.4%−8.0 vs W1 | 90%+11 vs W1 | 52 · 2 · 1 | Starter | |
The ceiling problem in two numbers: a 9.4% air-yards share and a 3.6 aDOT. His targets travel nowhere, so even a healthy target share converts to modest yardage — and the share itself is the one drifting down. Production is running −1.4 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| Jameson WilliamsWR2WR52 in target share, NFL | 0.45strong — elite at 0.60 | 15.6%−10.6 vs W1 | 87%steady | 11 · 0 · 0 | Flex | |
A starter's share without the alpha tag. A 15.6% target share and 10.9 expected points a game, with a 22.4% first-read share; a 30.5% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. He's −3.4 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Isaac TeSlaaWR3WR83 in target share, NFL | 0.23below startable | 8.3%+6.8 vs W1 | 64%−20 vs W1 | 2 ▲0 · 1 · 1 | Volatile | |
Not enough of the pie. A 8.3% target share is under the line where weekly fantasy value lives, and a 9% first-read share says he's rarely the design. He needs an injury above him or a role change, not a better matchup. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Jared GoffQB1QB6 in xFP/game, NFL | —every dropback | —the passer | 100%steady | 10 · 1 · 0 | Set & forget | |
A pocket passer's profile. 0 green-zone carries and a 4.1% scramble rate: his points have to come through the air, so his weekly range follows the pass volume (QB6 in expected points). Production is running +1.1 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs. | ||||||
How to read this table
- Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
- Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
- Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
- Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
- Stash the role behind the role
- WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
- + button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league
Buy low
Jameson Williams
The volume is there and the points aren't — yet. 10.9 expected points a game against 7.6 actual is the gap that closes on its own. Trade for him before it does.
- 10.9xFP per game
- −3.4points vs. expected per game
Sell high
Sam LaPorta
Season totals still read like a starter, but the share is drifting the wrong way three straight weeks. Name value currently exceeds trajectory.
- −8.0target share pts since W1
- 12.5%W3 share — season low
Watch
Isaac TeSlaa
Under 10% target share on a shrinking snap count. One more quiet week and he's droppable in 12-team leagues; an injury above him is the fastest path back.
- 9.4%W3 target share
- 2RZ touches since W1
Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser like Williams gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.
Explore StatChasers
- Fantasy Football ToolsThe #1 ranked fantasy football toolset.Open
- Advanced Player StatsDeeper numbers on every player in the league.Open
- Strength of ScheduleMatchup difficulty by fantasy position, including the playoff weeks.Open
- Fantasy Points AllowedHow Detroit's defense performs against QB, RB, WR and TE.Open
Common questions
Who leads the Detroit Lions in target share?
Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the Detroit Lions with a 32.1% target share through Week 4, down 10.9 points since Week 1. Jahmyr Gibbs is second at 19.3%.