AFC West · 2026 Season
Las Vegas Raiders
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Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders Usage & Opportunity Report 2026
Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday
Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.
- Pass rate over expected−2.6%20thThrows about as much as situations call for — the target tree, not the play-calling, decides who eats
- Red-zone pass rate54%18thBalanced inside the 20 — Jeanty leads the team with 19 red-zone touches
- Neutral pace34.2s27th fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations — a slow offense shrinks the pie
- Plays per game60.714thOffensive plays a game — league-average volume, so shares decide it
- Team xFP / game91.113thTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates
The Target Tree
All 92 Raiders pass attempts through Week 4
- Ashton Jeanty 17.4%
- Tre Tucker 16.3%
- Michael Mayer 15.2%
- Brock Bowers 14.1%
- Jalen Nailor 12.0%
- Bech/White/Benson 17.4%
- Everyone else 3.3%
- No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 4.3%
The Backfield Split
Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.
- Ashton Jeanty 83.3%
- Mike Washington 14.9%
- Connor Heyward 1.8%
Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.
- 31.7Jeanty weighted opps/game — RB4 in the NFL
- 23Jeanty high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
- 5.7Washington weighted opps/game
- +7.5Jeanty wOpp/g vs. last season — role grew, not just efficiency
Why Jeanty's floor holds in PPR: He keeps 73% of the backs' third-down work as well as the early downs, so his catches don't depend on game script — a 74-catch pace. No one on this depth chart takes the hurry-up snaps from him.
The Washington math if Jeanty misses time: Washington backs up the early-down role (the valuable ones). A Jeanty absence projects Washington to ~98% of weighted opportunities — about 37.4 a game, a top-12 weekly RB by volume — and why he's a STASH, not a cut.
Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap
- 2.07 attLeft end
- 2.68 attLeft tackle
- 3.951 attMiddle
- 5.86 attRight tackle
- 3.210 attRight end
Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.
The interior is the run game's engine: 3.9 yards per carry up the middle on 51 attempts, 62% of all designed runs. The edges are a change-up, not the plan — when an interior lineman sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.
Where Cousins Attacks
Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4
- 7%20.5 YPADeep left · Tucker
- 0%no attemptsDeep middle
- 3%0.0 YPADeep right
Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards
- 37%6.7 YPAShort left
- 22%5.3 YPAShort middle
- 32%7.1 YPAShort right
The short right is the efficiency engine (7.1 YPA). Cousins keeps 90% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep left his most explosive zone (20.5 YPA on 6 attempts). Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.
| Profile | Player | Opportunity (WOPR) | Target share | Snap share | RZ touches | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton JeantyRB1, 82% of RB touchesRB4 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 82% | 17.4%−10.9 vs W1 | 80%+10 vs W1 | 197 · 6 · 6 — leads team | Set & forget | |
The locked-in workhorse. A 90% share of the backs' red-zone work is the RB stat that tracks fantasy points best, and 7 green-zone carries put him at the goal line. He's −5.6 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Brock BowersTE2TE15 in target share, NFL | 0.31streamer range | 14.1% | 27% | 3– · – · 3 | Volatile | |
A starter's share without the alpha tag. A 14.1% target share and 23.8 expected points a game, with a 17.2% first-read share; a 13.6% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. He's scoring +3.8 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 23.8 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| Tre TuckerWR1WR49 in target share, NFL | 0.45strong — elite at 0.60 | 16.3%steady | 62%−14 vs W1 | 11 · 0 · 0 | Flex | |
A starter's share without the alpha tag. A 16.3% target share and 8.9 expected points a game, with a 20.3% first-read share; a 29.2% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. He's scoring +3.1 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 8.9 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Michael MayerTE1TE13 in target share, NFL | 0.28streamer range | 15.2%−14.2 vs W1 | 84%+6 vs W1 | 21 · 0 · 1 | Flex | |
The ceiling problem in two numbers: a 7.4% air-yards share and a 4.1 aDOT. His targets travel nowhere, so even a healthy target share converts to modest yardage — and the share itself is the one drifting down. Production is running +0.2 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| Jalen NailorWR2WR66 in target share, NFL | 0.30flex range | 12.0%−7.6 vs W1 | 59%steady | 10 · 1 · 0 | Volatile | |
A starter's share without the alpha tag. A 12% target share and 6.1 expected points a game, with a 15.6% first-read share; a 17.3% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. He's −2.7 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Mike WashingtonRB2 · handcuff, 16% of RB touchesRB65 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 16% | 1.1%steady | 18%steady | 21 · 1 · 0 | Stash | |
Contingent value, quantified. The 16% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Jeanty misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Kirk CousinsQB1QB15 in xFP/game, NFL | —every dropback | —the passer | 100%steady | 00 · 0 · 0 | Starter | |
A pocket passer's profile. 0 green-zone carries and a 3% scramble rate: his points have to come through the air, so his weekly range follows the pass volume (QB15 in expected points). Production is running +1.3 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs. | ||||||
How to read this table
- Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
- Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
- Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
- Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
- Stash the role behind the role
- WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
- + button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league
Buy low
Ashton Jeanty
The volume is there and the points aren't — yet. 24.1 expected points a game against 18.4 actual is the gap that closes on its own. Trade for him before it does.
- 24.1xFP per game
- −5.6points vs. expected per game
Sell high
Michael Mayer
Season totals still read like a starter, but the share is drifting the wrong way three straight weeks. Name value currently exceeds trajectory.
- −14.2target share pts since W1
- 9.1%W3 share — season low
Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser like Jeanty gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.
Explore StatChasers
- Fantasy Football ToolsThe #1 ranked fantasy football toolset.Open
- Advanced Player StatsDeeper numbers on every player in the league.Open
- Strength of ScheduleMatchup difficulty by fantasy position, including the playoff weeks.Open
- Fantasy Points AllowedHow Las Vegas's defense performs against QB, RB, WR and TE.Open
Common questions
Who leads the Las Vegas Raiders in target share?
Ashton Jeanty leads the Las Vegas Raiders with a 17.4% target share through Week 4, down 10.9 points since Week 1. Tre Tucker is second at 16.3%.