AFC South · 2026 Season

Tennessee Titans

Tennessee Titans fantasy football hub

DivisionAFC South
Record0-3
Standing3rd in AFC South3rd
Head CoachRobert Saleh
ByeWeek 9W9

Last updated Oct 2, 10:25 PM ET

Tennessee Titans

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Tennessee Titans Usage & Opportunity Report 2026

Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday

Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.

Pass rate over expected−10.2%31stRuns more than game situations call for — a cap on the pass-catchers' volume and a floor under Pollard
Red-zone pass rate56%16thBalanced inside the 20 — Pollard leads the team with 8 red-zone touches
Neutral pace30.9s3rd fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations — a fast offense means more snaps for every starter
Plays per game52.332ndOffensive plays a game — fewer snaps to go around, so shares matter more
Team xFP / game70.430thTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates — a thin pie, so only the top shares pay

The Target Tree

All 88 Titans pass attempts through Week 4

22.7%Tate20.5%Robinson12.5%Helm10.2%Ayomanor8.0%14.8%Spears/Bellinger/Ridley9.1%None

Carnell Tate 22.7%
Wan'Dale Robinson 20.5%
Gunnar Helm 12.5%
Elic Ayomanor 10.2%
Tony Pollard 8.0%
Spears/Bellinger/Ridley 14.8%
Everyone else 2.3%
No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 9.1%

The Backfield Split

Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.

64.2%Pollard30.9%Spears

Tony Pollard 64.2%
Tyjae Spears 30.9%
Nicholas Singleton 4.9%

SituationPollardSpearsSingleton

Early downs62 opps68%26%6%

Third down6 opps50%50%0%

Red zone (in-20)10 opps80%10%10%

Inside the 105 opps100%0%0%

Two-minute drill5 opps40%60%0%

Trailing by 7+38 opps66%24%11%

Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.

17.3Pollard weighted opps/game — RB27 in the NFL
12Pollard high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
8.3Spears weighted opps/game
−1.8Pollard wOpp/g vs. last season — a smaller role than last season

Why Pollard's floor holds in PPR: He keeps 54% of the backfield's targets as well as the early downs, so his catches don't depend on game script — a 34-catch pace. Trailing by 7+, he still gets 66% of the backs' work — no one takes the hurry-up snaps from him.

The Spears math if Pollard misses time: Spears backs up the early-down role (the valuable ones). A Pollard absence projects Spears to ~73% of weighted opportunities — about 21.7 a game, an RB2 by volume — and why he's a STASH, not a cut.

Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap

14.84 attLeft end
2.614 attLeft tackle
3.929 attMiddle
4.29 attRight tackle
0.02 attRight end

Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.

The right side is the run game's engine: 4.2 yards per carry behind right tackle — 19% of all designed runs go that way. Interior volume (29 attempts) does the clock work at 3.9; the right edge does the damage. When the line's right side sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.

Where Ward Attacks

Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4

2%0.0 YPADeep left
1%0.0 YPADeep middle
3%0.0 YPADeep right

Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards

33%6.3 YPAShort left
13%3.0 YPAShort middle
48%6.8 YPAShort right

The short right is the efficiency engine (6.8 YPA). Ward keeps 93% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep left his most explosive zone (0 YPA on 2 attempts). Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.

Profile	Player	Opportunity (WOPR)	Target share	Snap share	RZ touches	Read
	Tony PollardRB1, 68% of RB touchesRB27 in weighted opps/game, NFL	—touch share 68%	8.0%+4.8 vs W1	53%steady	8 ▲0 · 5 · 3 — leads team	Starter
Touch share (RB room)68% Red-zone share (RB room)80% Green-zone carries (in-10)5 Target share8.0% Weighted opps / game17.3 xFP / game11.1 FPOE / game−2.6 Yards after contact / att1.9 A shared backfield. 64% of the weighted opportunities means another back takes a real cut every week, so his floor rises and falls with game script. He's −2.6 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs.
	Carnell TateWR1WR21 in target share, NFL	0.62elite	22.7%+6.2 vs W1	84%steady	1 ▲0 · 0 · 1	Set & forget
First-read share31.6% Air-yards share39.2% aDOT11.0 End-zone targets1 xFP / game10.0 FPOE / game−1.6 The alpha profile, fully formed. A 39.2% air-yards share clears the 30% alpha threshold, a 31.6% first-read share says the offense is designed through him, and a 11-yard aDOT sits in the sweet spot — deep enough for ceiling, not so deep it gets volatile. He's −1.6 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs.
	Wan'Dale RobinsonWR2WR30 in target share, NFL	0.42flex range	20.5%+11.8 vs W1	66%−19 vs W1	3 ▲0 · 0 · 3	Set & forget
First-read share29.8% Air-yards share16.3% aDOT5.1 End-zone targets1 xFP / game8.3 FPOE / game+1.5 The role is arriving before the box score does. His target share has run 19% → 5% → 31% over the last 3 games, with a 29.8% first-read share saying the plays are being designed for him. Volume that is growing this fast gets repriced the week it scores. He's scoring +1.5 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 8.3 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs.
	Elic AyomanorWR3WR73 in target share, NFL	0.28below startable	10.2%steady	63%+28 vs W1	52 · 1 · 2	Volatile
First-read share12.3% Air-yards share17.4% aDOT10.8 End-zone targets3 xFP / game6.4 FPOE / game−0.1 Not enough of the pie. A 10.2% target share is under the line where weekly fantasy value lives, and a 12.3% first-read share says he's rarely the design. He needs an injury above him or a role change, not a better matchup. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs.
	Gunnar HelmTE1TE19 in target share, NFL	0.24below startable	12.5%−4.5 vs W1	82%+6 vs W1	31 · 1 · 1	Volatile
First-read share12.3% Air-yards share8.1% aDOT4.1 End-zone targets2 xFP / game5.4 FPOE / game−0.9 The ceiling problem in two numbers: a 8.1% air-yards share and a 4.1 aDOT. His targets travel nowhere, so even a healthy target share converts to modest yardage. Production is running −0.9 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs.
	Tyjae SpearsRB2 · handcuff, 26% of RB touchesRB53 in weighted opps/game, NFL	—touch share 26%	6.8%−12.5 vs W1	44%steady	10 · 1 · 0	Stash
Touch share (RB room)26% Red-zone share (RB room)10% Green-zone carries (in-10)0 Target share6.8% Weighted opps / game8.3 xFP / game5.0 FPOE / game−0.3 Yards after contact / att1.7 Contingent value, quantified. The 26% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Pollard misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs.
	Cam WardQB1QB22 in xFP/game, NFL	—every dropback	—the passer	100%steady	40 · 4 · 0	Volatile
Green-zone carries (in-10)4 Designed-run rate2.9% Scramble rate6.1% aDOT6.3 xFP / game15.9 FPOE / game−2.2 Sack rate5.1% Team pass rate inside the 1056% The goal-line QB. 4 green-zone carries in 3 games and a 2.9% designed-run rate — with a 56% pass rate inside the 10, the most valuable real estate in fantasy goes to his legs as often as his arm. His xFP alone (QB22 league-wide) justifies the price before any efficiency. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs.

How to read this table

Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
Stash the role behind the role
WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
+ button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league

Buy low

Tony Pollard

The role is arriving before the box score does. Trade for him this week — not after the two-touchdown game makes it obvious to your league.

+1snap share pts since W1
+4.8target share pts since W1

Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser like Pollard gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.

Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.

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Common questions

Who leads the Tennessee Titans in target share?

Carnell Tate leads the Tennessee Titans with a 22.7% target share through Week 4, up 6.2 points since Week 1. Wan'Dale Robinson is second at 20.5%.

See the full usage report

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Tennessee Titans

Tennessee Titans Usage & Opportunity Report 2026

The Target Tree

The Backfield Split

Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap

Where Ward Attacks

Tony Pollard

Explore StatChasers

Common questions

Who leads the Tennessee Titans in target share?