Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills, Wild Card 2022
Miami Dolphins
Away
31
Buffalo Bills
HomeWon, advanced
34
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 0 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| Bills | 14 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 34 |
MIA 31BUF 34 Final
Passing leader
24.1PPR pts
23/39, 352 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
Top fantasy scorer
Gabe Davis
23.3PPR pts
6 REC, 113 YDS, 1 TD
Dolphins leader
Tyreek Hill
16.4PPR pts
7 REC, 69 YDS
Defensive playmaker
Zach Sieler
1 TD, 2 SACK, 6 TKL
Bills 34, Dolphins 31: Buffalo holds off Miami in the 2022 Wild Card
Buffalo led 20–17 at halftime to win 34–31. The Bills finished with a 423–231 edge in total offense and averaged 5.9 yards per play.
The Dolphins went 4-for-16 on third down and committed two turnovers, while the Bills kept the ball for 32:13.
The Bills' run ended in the Divisional Round, a 27–10 loss to the Bengals.
The two teams meet again in Week 11 of 2026. If you roster anyone from either side, run the start/sit call in Redraft Command and it will weigh your lineup, your opponent and your league scoring, not only the player rankings.
Key advantages
- +2.6 yards/play BUF 5.9 · MIA 3.3
- +192 total yards BUF 423 · MIA 231
- +31% third-down rate BUF 56% · MIA 25%
Game Highlights
Official NFL highlights · Opens from YouTube
Got a Dolphin or Bill on your fantasy team?
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Why the Bills Won
Buffalo won the efficiency, third-down, and time of possession battles.
| Dolphins | Stat | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3 | Yards per play | 5.9 |
| 231 | Total yards | 423 |
| 25% | Third-down conversion | 56% |
| Other team stats | ||
| 69 | Plays | 72 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 27:47 | Time of possession | 32:13 |
Scoring Summary
The Bills scored four touchdowns and two field goals; the Dolphins scored three touchdowns and three field goals.
| Time | Team | Play | MIA | BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter | ||||
| 7:57 | BUF | Josh Allen → Dawson Knox, 6-yard TD Takes leadTyler Bass XP | 0 | 7 |
| 5:07 | BUF | James Cook 12-yard TD run Extends leadTyler Bass XP | 0 | 14 |
| 2nd quarter | ||||
| 12:46 | BUF | Tyler Bass 33-yard FG Extends lead | 0 | 17 |
| 7:34 | MIA | Jason Sanders 40-yard FG | 3 | 17 |
| 2:15 | MIA | Jason Sanders 48-yard FG | 6 | 17 |
| 1:15 | MIA | Jason Sanders 37-yard FG | 9 | 17 |
| 0:33 | MIA | Skylar Thompson → Mike Gesicki, 7-yard TD Ties gameSkylar Thompson → Tyreek Hill, 2-pt conversion | 17 | 17 |
| 0:04 | BUF | Tyler Bass 39-yard FG Takes lead | 17 | 20 |
| 3rd quarter | ||||
| 13:59 | MIA | Zach Sieler 5-yard fumble return TD Takes leadJason Sanders XP | 24 | 20 |
| 5:18 | BUF | Josh Allen → Cole Beasley, 6-yard TD Takes leadTyler Bass XP | 24 | 27 |
| 2:07 | BUF | Josh Allen → Gabe Davis, 23-yard TD Extends leadTyler Bass XP | 24 | 34 |
| 4th quarter | ||||
| 10:53 | MIA | Jeff Wilson Jr. 1-yard TD runJason Sanders XP | 31 | 34 |
Playoff game: these points don't count in most season-long fantasy leagues.
Fantasy Points vs Expected
Expected points (xFP) are what a player's pass attempts, carries and targets are worth at the league's average rates; the difference is what the player made of them.
- Biggest overperformer+8.3Gabe Davis23.3 PTS vs 15.0 xFP
- Biggest underperformer−9.9Tyreek Hill16.4 PTS vs 26.3 xFP
- Highest expected volume26.3 xFPTyreek Hill16.4 PTS scored
| Player | PTS | xFP | vs xFP | Snap% | Usage | Rte% | Pass att | Car | Car% | Tgt | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek HillMIA · WR | 16.4 | 26.3 | −9.9 | — | 36% tgt | — | 0 | 2 | 10% | 15 | 36% |
| Skylar ThompsonMIA · QB | 13.1 | 20.3 | −7.2 | — | 45 att | — | 45 | 2 | 10% | 0 | 0% |
| Josh AllenBUF · QB | 24.1 | 19.1 | +5.0 | — | 39 att | — | 39 | 4 | 15% | 0 | 0% |
| Gabe DavisBUF · WR | 23.3 | 15.0 | +8.3 | — | 24% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 9 | 24% |
| Stefon DiggsBUF · WR | 18.4 | 15.0 | +3.4 | — | 24% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 9 | 24% |
| Jeff Wilson Jr.MIA · RB | 10.6 | 13.1 | −2.5 | — | 50% car | — | 0 | 10 | 50% | 4 | 10% |
| Jaylen WaddleMIA · WR | 8.2 | 12.3 | −4.1 | — | 17% tgt | — | 0 | 1 | 5% | 7 | 17% |
| Salvon AhmedMIA · RB | 7.8 | 11.5 | −3.7 | — | 25% car | — | 0 | 5 | 25% | 5 | 12% |
| Mike GesickiMIA · TE | 9.5 | 10.0 | −0.5 | — | 14% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 6 | 14% |
| Cole BeasleyBUF · WR | 11.5 | 8.3 | +3.2 | — | 14% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5 | 14% |
| Dawson KnoxBUF · TE | 11.0 | 8.3 | +2.7 | — | 14% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5 | 14% |
| Khalil ShakirBUF · WR | 8.1 | 8.3 | −0.2 | — | 14% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5 | 14% |
| James Cook IIIBUF · RB | 9.9 | 7.7 | +2.2 | — | 46% car | — | 0 | 12 | 46% | 0 | 0% |
| Devin SingletaryBUF · RB | 4.8 | 6.4 | −1.6 | — | 38% car | — | 0 | 10 | 38% | 0 | 0% |
| Nyheim HinesBUF · — | 1.7 | 3.3 | −1.6 | — | 5% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2 | 5% |
| Trent SherfieldMIA · WR | 0.0 | 3.3 | −3.3 | — | 5% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2 | 5% |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr.MIA · WR | 2.4 | 1.7 | +0.7 | — | 2% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 2% |
| Durham SmytheMIA · TE | 3.0 | 1.7 | +1.3 | — | 2% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 2% |
| Hunter LongMIA · TE | 0.0 | 1.7 | −1.7 | — | 2% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 2% |
| John BrownBUF · WR | 0.0 | 1.7 | −1.7 | — | 3% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 3% |
| Quintin MorrisBUF · TE | 2.2 | 1.7 | +0.5 | — | 3% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 3% |
Team totals: Dolphins 42 targets and 20 carries; Bills 37 targets and 26 carries. Shares are from the box score. Snap counts aren't available for this game. Route counts, air yards and red-zone touches appear when the tracking feed is connected. League-average rates from the 2022 season: 1.67 PPR points per target (67% catch rate), 0.64 per carry and 0.42 per pass attempt. They don't adjust for field position or target depth.
Fantasy Verdicts
Skylar Thompson Unlucky
18 of 45 passing for 220 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions; 2 carries for 3 yards.
Verdict: The role was there, worth 20.3 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.
Best fantasy game of the season.
Josh Allen Ran hot
23 of 39 passing for 352 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions; 4 carries for 20 yards.
Verdict: The opportunities were worth 19.1 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.
Tyreek Hill Volume, no payoff
15 targets (36% of the team's), 7 catches for 69 yards; 2 carries (10% of the team's) for 5 yards.
Verdict: The role was there, worth 26.3 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.
Best score since Week 15.
Jeff Wilson Jr.
4 targets (10% of the team's), 1 catch for 13 yards; 10 carries (50% of the team's) for 23 yards and 1 touchdown.
Verdict: The points matched the role, 13.1 expected.
Gabe Davis Ran hot
9 targets (24% of the team's), 6 catches for 113 yards and 1 touchdown.
Verdict: The opportunities were worth 15.0 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.
Best score since Week 5.
Stefon Diggs
9 targets (24% of the team's), 7 catches for 114 yards.
Verdict: The points matched the role, 15.0 expected.
Fantasy Matchups
Fantasy points allowed per game by position, 2022 through Week 18.
| Points allowed to | Dolphins D | Bills D |
|---|---|---|
| QBs | 19.8 | 14.4 |
| RBs | 22.4 | 19.9 |
| WRs | 30.9 | 35.5 |
| TEs | 14.9 | 8.7 |
Regular season, summed from each game's box score and scored with this page's rules.
How the Game Swung
Buffalo opened at 85% win probability and passed 98% before halftime on the way to the win.
Bills win probability
Key Swings
- −17Thompson → Gesicki, 7-yd TD94% → 77%Q2 0:33
- −24Sieler 5-yd TD85% → 62%Q3 13:59
- +30Allen → Beasley, 6-yd TD54% → 84%Q3 5:18
- +14Allen → Davis, 23-yd TD83% → 97%Q3 2:07
- −15Wilson 1-yd TD run99% → 83%Q4 10:53
Swing in Bills win probability, in points
Play Calling and Possessions
| Miami Dolphins | Measure | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 69 | Plays | 72 |
| 71% | Pass rate | 64% |
| 3.9 | Yds / dropback | 6.9 |
| 2.1 | Yds / carry | 4.1 |
| 4/16 | Third downs | 9/16 |
Efficiency edge Buffalo ran 3 more plays and gained 3.0 more yards per dropback.
- Top targets
- MIA Hill 36% · Waddle 17% · Gesicki 14%
- BUF Davis 24% · Diggs 24% · Beasley 14%
Possession Results
| Result | MIA | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Touchdowns | 2 | 4 |
| Field goals | 3 | 2 |
| Punts | 6 | 5 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 3 |
| Turnovers on downs | 1 | 1 |
MIA turnover edge: +1
- The Bills opened the scoring on their second possession, a 5-play, 73-yard drive that ended in a touchdown.
- The Bills scored touchdowns on two of their first three drives.
All 31 possessions, drive by drive
| Team | Start | Plays | Yards | Time | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 43 | 3:04 | Downs |
| MIA | Q1 11:56 | 3 | 2 | 0:59 | Punt |
| BUF | Q1 10:57 | 5 | 73 | 3:00 | Touchdown |
| MIA | Q1 7:57 | 2 | 2 | 0:37 | Interception |
| BUF | Q1 7:20 | 4 | 23 | 2:13 | Touchdown |
| MIA | Q1 5:07 | 6 | 10 | 2:30 | Punt |
| BUF | Q1 2:37 | 11 | 52 | 4:51 | Field goal |
| MIA | Q2 12:46 | 10 | 38 | 5:12 | Field goal |
| BUF | Q2 7:34 | 3 | 22 | 1:33 | Interception |
| MIA | Q2 6:01 | 8 | 18 | 3:46 | Field goal |
| BUF | Q2 2:15 | 3 | 2 | 0:43 | Punt |
| MIA | Q2 1:32 | 4 | 8 | 0:17 | Field goal |
| BUF | Q2 1:15 | 3 | 11 | 0:22 | Interception |
| MIA | Q2 0:53 | 4 | 18 | 0:20 | Touchdown |
| BUF | Q2 0:33 | 6 | 54 | 0:29 | Field goal |
| MIA | Q2 0:04 | 1 | 0 | 0:04 | End of half |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | 0:53 | Punt |
| BUF | Q3 14:07 | 1 | -17 | 0:08 | Fumble |
| BUF | Q3 13:59 | 6 | 29 | 2:43 | Punt |
| MIA | Q3 11:16 | 3 | 4 | 1:01 | Punt |
| BUF | Q3 10:15 | 3 | -2 | 1:29 | Punt |
| MIA | Q3 8:46 | 3 | -9 | 1:17 | Interception |
| BUF | Q3 7:29 | 5 | 33 | 2:11 | Touchdown |
| MIA | Q3 5:18 | 4 | 13 | 1:04 | Punt |
| BUF | Q3 4:14 | 5 | 68 | 2:07 | Touchdown |
| MIA | Q3 2:07 | 11 | 75 | 6:14 | Touchdown |
| BUF | Q4 10:53 | 3 | -3 | 0:59 | Punt |
| MIA | Q4 9:54 | 3 | 5 | 1:31 | Punt |
| BUF | Q4 8:23 | 6 | 32 | 3:59 | Punt |
| MIA | Q4 4:24 | 7 | 30 | 2:02 | Downs |
| BUF | Q4 2:22 | 4 | 8 | 2:22 | End of game |
About these numbers
The Dolphins' fumble touchdown is counted as a Bills lost fumble, not as a Dolphins possession. Possessions that ended with the clock running out at the half or the end of the game aren't counted.
Personnel groupings, average depth of target and pass rate over expected appear when the tracking feed is connected.
Dolphins vs Bills Head-to-Head
The Dolphins and Bills first met in 1966 and have played 125 times since. They have been AFC East rivals since 1970.
- All-time series
- 63–61–1Dolphins lead, 125 meetings since 1966
- Postseason
- 4–1Split 4–1
- Largest Dolphins win
- 45–71970
- Largest Bills win
- 35–02021
Since 2021
9–2 Bills lead
11 meetings since the 2021 season, regular season and playoffs.
Oldest to newest. B = Bills win, D = Dolphins win, outlined = this game.
2026 Meetings
- Week 11 Dolphins at Bills Upcoming
- Week 17 Bills at Dolphins Upcoming
Recent Meetings
- 2025 Wk 10 Bills at Dolphins, 2025 Wk 10 recap MIA 30 BUF 13 MIA W
- 2025 Wk 3 Dolphins at Bills, 2025 Wk 3 recap BUF 31 MIA 21 BUF W
- 2024 Wk 9 Dolphins at Bills, 2024 Wk 9 recap BUF 30 MIA 27 BUF W
- 2024 Wk 2 Bills at Dolphins, 2024 Wk 2 recap BUF 31 MIA 10 BUF W
- 2023 Wk 18 Bills at Dolphins, 2023 Wk 18 recap BUF 21 MIA 14 BUF W
- 2023 Wk 4 Dolphins at Bills, 2023 Wk 4 recap BUF 48 MIA 20 BUF W
- 2022 Wild Card Dolphins at Bills BUF 34 MIA 31 BUF W
- 2022 Wk 15 Dolphins at Bills, 2022 Wk 15 recap BUF 32 MIA 29 BUF W
- 2022 Wk 3 Bills at Dolphins, 2022 Wk 3 recap MIA 21 BUF 19 MIA W
- 2021 Wk 8 Dolphins at Bills, 2021 Wk 8 recap BUF 26 MIA 11 BUF W
- 2021 Wk 2 Bills at Dolphins, 2021 Wk 2 recap BUF 35 MIA 0 BUF W
Season to Date (Through Week 18)
The 2022 regular season, from each game's box score.
| Dolphins | Stat | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 9-8 | Record | 13-3 |
| 23.4 | Points per game | 28.4 |
| 364.5 | Yards per game | 397.6 |
| 6.1 | Yards per play | 6.1 |
| 23.5 | Points allowed per game | 17.9 |
| 337.8 | Yards allowed per game | 319.1 |
Dolphins vs Bills Odds and Results
How this game finished against the betting lines.
- Spread
- BUF −14Bills failed to cover by 11
- Total
- 44.5Over: 65 points scored (by 20.5)
Expected vs Actual Scoring
| Team | Implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 29.3 | 34 | +4.8 |
| Dolphins | 15.3 | 31 | +15.8 |
Both offenses beat the market's expectation, and the Fantasy tab shows who cashed in.
Betting Trends
Last 5 meetings: Dolphins 3–1–1 ATS, unders 3–2.
Each team's 2022 season through this game. Over/under is overs first.
Miami Dolphins
- Against the spread
- 10–8
- Over/under
- 9–9
- ATS as favorite
- 5–5
- ATS as underdog
- 5–3
- ATS on the road
- 5–5
Buffalo Bills
- Against the spread
- 8–9
- Over/under
- 7–10
- ATS as favorite
- 8–9
- ATS at home
- 4–5
Lines: ESPN's consensus, captured at kickoff. Individual sportsbooks varied.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Betting availability depends on your state.
Dolphins vs Bills Fantasy Outlook for 2026
Two meetings are left on the 2026 schedule: Week 11 in Buffalo and Week 17 in Miami. Here's how to decide who to play in your league.
- Start/Sit ToolShould your Dolphins or Bills player start in Week 11? Compare the decision against your other options.
- Fantasy Football ProjectionsSee the latest weekly and rest-of-season projections for Dolphins and Bills players.
- Fantasy Points Allowed by PositionHow the Dolphins and Bills defenses have treated QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs.
- Strength of ScheduleWhere these two matchups fall in each team's fantasy playoff run.
- Redraft CommandConnect your league for personalized lineup, trade and roster advice.
Keep Exploring
2022 Game Logs for Players in This Game
Dolphins vs Bills Game FAQ
Who won the 2022 Dolphins vs Bills Wild Card game?
The Buffalo Bills beat the Miami Dolphins 34–31 in the Wild Card round of the 2022 playoffs. The game was played at Highmark Stadium (Old) in Orchard Park, NY, on January 15, 2023. See the Bills' 2022 schedule.
What was the final score of Dolphins vs Bills?
The final score was Bills 34, Dolphins 31. The Bills led 20–17 at halftime, and the second half went Dolphins 14, Bills 14.
What happened in the Dolphins vs Bills game?
Buffalo led 20–17 at halftime to win 34–31. The Bills finished with a 423–231 edge in total offense and averaged 5.9 yards per play. The Bills committed 3 turnovers, the Dolphins 2.
How did the Bills beat the Dolphins?
The Bills beat the Dolphins 34–31 because they averaged 5.9 yards per play to 3.3 and outgained them 423–231.
Which team won the turnover battle in Dolphins vs Bills?
The Dolphins won the turnover battle 3–2: the Bills gave the ball away 3 times and the Dolphins 2 times. The Bills won the game anyway.
What was the turning point of Dolphins vs Bills?
Josh Allen's 6-yard touchdown pass to Cole Beasley with 5:18 left in the third quarter was the biggest swing of the game, moving the Bills' win probability from 54% to 84%.
What is the all-time Dolphins vs Bills record?
The Dolphins lead the all-time series 63–61–1 across 125 meetings since 1966, including a 1–4 record in the postseason.
When did the Dolphins and Bills last play before this game?
Before the 2022 Wild Card round, they last met in the 2022 season on December 17, 2022, when the Bills beat the Dolphins 32–29.
Have the Dolphins and Bills met in the playoffs?
Yes, 5 times, most recently in the 2022 playoffs. The Dolphins are 1–4 against the Bills in the postseason.
What is the Dolphins vs Bills record since 2021?
The Bills lead 9–2 across 11 meetings since the 2021 season, including this game.
What was the closing spread for Dolphins vs Bills?
The consensus closing spread at kickoff was Bills −14, making the Buffalo Bills 14-point favorites, with a closing total of 44.5. That implied about 29.3 points for the Bills and 15.3 for the Dolphins.
Did Dolphins vs Bills go over or under the total?
The game went over. The consensus closing total was 44.5, and the teams combined for 65 points, 20.5 over the number.
Who covered the spread in Dolphins vs Bills?
The Dolphins covered as 14-point underdogs against the closing line of Bills −14. The final margin was 3 points.