C.J. Stroud 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 24
- Height / weight
- 6'3", 218 lb
- Experience
- 4th season
- Drafted
- 2023 R1, #2
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 15.1
- Pos rank
- QB21
- Rostered
- 43%
Week 4 vs. Cowboys, Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET 3rd vs. QBs, favorable
C.J. Stroud Rest-of-Season Outlook
Efficient QB2 with streaming weeks
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished QB21 last season at 15.5 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 3 games he's QB21 at 15.1 PPR points per game, against 15.5 over 14 games last season (QB21). The role is producing the same fantasy output two years running.
Last season he ranked 18th of 41 in passing volume (30.2 attempts per game), 10th of 41 in efficiency (0.11 EPA per play) and 22nd of 41 in rushing (14.9 rush yards per game). His points come from his efficiency. Rushing is the soft spot. Dalton Schultz and Xavier Hutchinson are his top two targets.
The main risk is the job itself. He's the listed starter with Davis Mills next on the depth chart, and a benching or an injury would take his value to zero overnight.
The next favorable matchup is the Cowboys in Week 4 (3rd against QBs).
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 17, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Stroud's 2025 looked like a quiet bounce-back under the hood: his EPA per play climbed to 0.114 with a 46.2% success rate, both nearly matching his QB8 rookie campaign and erasing the negative-EPA, 41.2% slog of 2024. He posted just eight picks against 19 touchdowns over 14 games, with a 0.4 CPOE and 74.6% on-target rate signaling cleaner ball placement. The catch was volume and pressure: 423 attempts, 23 sacks, and only 209 rushing yards capped his ceiling, dropping him to QB20 at 208.5 points.
The efficiency was real, but the offense leaned conservative, completing passes barely six air yards downfield. With Nico Collins anchoring the receivers and the line improving, a healthier 16-17 games should push him back toward the 24-touchdown, 3,900-yard range. Going outside the top-22 quarterbacks off the board, Stroud is a sturdy late-round streamer with genuine QB1 upside if the volume returns.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 41 quarterbacks who played at least six games. Each bar is one quarterback, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Passing volume
Efficiency
Rushing
- Success rate
- 46.2%
- CPOE
- +0.4
- Sacks taken
- 23
- Pressure rate
- 21.4%
- Bad-throw rate
- 17.6%
- Deep-attempt rate
- 10.5%
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- A soft spotThe Cowboys in Week 4 is a top-10 matchup for QBs.Wk 4 DAL, 3rdWk 5 TEN, 31stWk 6 JAX, 30thWk 7 NYG, 12th
- Strong efficiency0.11 EPA per play, 10th of 41 QBs in 2025.
Risk
- Job securityDavis Mills is next on the depth chart; a benching or injury hands him the job.
- Tough matchupsThe Titans in Week 5 (31st) and the Jaguars in Week 6 (30th) are among the stingiest defenses against QBs.
- Pressure and sacks23 sacks and a 21.4% pressure rate in 2025.
All C.J. Stroud stats & analysis
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C.J. Stroud Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is C.J. Stroud's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
C.J. Stroud projects as an efficient QB2 with streaming weeks for the rest of the 2026 season: a weekly starter in superflex and 2QB leagues, a streamer in 12-team 1QB leagues and waiver-wire material in 10-team 1QB leagues. His efficiency (0.11 EPA per play, 10th of 41 QBs in 2025) supports that. His rushing (14.9 rush yards per game, 22nd of 41 QBs in 2025) holds him back. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is C.J. Stroud's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
C.J. Stroud is the QB21 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in QB2 territory, a streamer in 12-team 1QB leagues.
What is C.J. Stroud's projected role going forward?
C.J. Stroud is the listed starting QB, with Davis Mills next on the depth chart. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
Will C.J. Stroud get more pass attempts?
C.J. Stroud's pass attempts are holding steady: 41.0 a game over his last two games against 40.0 for the season. Game script drives much of that, and trailing teams throw more.
What is C.J. Stroud's fantasy football upside?
C.J. Stroud's upside: his ceiling this season is 17.0 PPR points (Week 2, QB14), his efficiency (0.11 EPA per play, 10th of 41 QBs in 2025) gives him a weekly floor to build on and the Cowboys in Week 4 is a top-10 matchup for QBs.
What could hurt C.J. Stroud's fantasy value?
C.J. Stroud's risks: Davis Mills is next on the depth chart if he is benched or hurt, his rushing (14.9 rush yards per game, 22nd of 41 QBs in 2025) limits his scoring and the Titans in Week 5 and the Jaguars in Week 6 are tough matchups. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is C.J. Stroud's remaining fantasy schedule?
About average: of his next seven games, 2 come against a top-10 matchup for QBs and 2 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.