AFC South · 2026 Season
Houston Texans
Houston Texans fantasy football hub
Houston Texans
Houston Texans Usage & Opportunity Report 2026
Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday
Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.
- Pass rate over expected−2.1%18thThrows about as much as situations call for — the target tree, not the play-calling, decides who eats
- Red-zone pass rate64%6thThrows inside the 20 — Hutchinson's 2 end-zone targets lead the team
- Neutral pace32.7s11th fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations
- Plays per game66.73rdOffensive plays a game — extra volume lifts every starter's floor
- Team xFP / game97.66thTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates — a rising tide for every starter
The Target Tree
All 119 Texans pass attempts through Week 4
- Dalton Schultz 21.0%
- Xavier Hutchinson 17.6%
- Jared Wayne 10.1%
- Nico Collins 8.4%
- Jaylin Noel 7.6%
- Boutte/Marks/Moreau 21.0%
- Everyone else 8.4%
- No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 5.9%
The Backfield Split
Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.
- David Montgomery 57.3%
- Woody Marks 42.7%
Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.
- 17.0Montgomery weighted opps/game — RB28 in the NFL
- 11Montgomery high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
- 12.7Marks weighted opps/game
- +4.3Montgomery wOpp/g vs. last season — role grew, not just efficiency
Why Montgomery's floor holds in PPR: He keeps 50% of the backs' third-down work as well as the early downs, so his catches don't depend on game script — a 40-catch pace. Trailing by 7+, he still gets 53% of the backs' work — no one takes the hurry-up snaps from him.
The Marks math if Montgomery misses time: Marks backs up the early-down and red-zone roles (the valuable ones). A Montgomery absence projects Marks to ~100% of weighted opportunities — about 29.7 a game, a top-12 weekly RB by volume — worth a bench spot in deeper leagues.
Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap
- 1.73 attLeft end
- 3.97 attLeft tackle
- 3.134 attMiddle
- 2.115 attRight tackle
- 4.77 attRight end
Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.
The right side is the run game's engine: 4.7 yards per carry off right end — 33% of all designed runs go that way. Interior volume (34 attempts) does the clock work at 3.1; the right edge does the damage. When the line's right side sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.
Where Stroud Attacks
Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4
- 4%10.4 YPADeep left
- 3%15.0 YPADeep middle
- 8%5.9 YPADeep right
Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards
- 24%3.9 YPAShort left
- 26%8.0 YPAShort middle
- 35%6.7 YPAShort right · Schultz
The short middle is the efficiency engine (8 YPA). Stroud keeps 86% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep middle his most explosive zone (15 YPA on 3 attempts). Wayne's fantasy problem, mapped: a 15.4-yard aDOT puts him in the 14% deep slice of this chart while the short middle feasts. Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.
| Profile | Player | Opportunity (WOPR) | Target share | Snap share | RZ touches | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico CollinsWR3WR82 in target share, NFL | 0.20below startable | 8.4% | 27% | 22 · – · – | Volatile | |
Not enough of the pie. A 8.4% target share is under the line where weekly fantasy value lives, and a 10.4% first-read share says he's rarely the design. He needs an injury above him or a role change, not a better matchup. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| David MontgomeryRB1, 60% of RB touchesRB28 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 60% | 5.9%steady | 54%+14 vs W1 | 86 · 1 · 1 — leads team | Starter | |
A shared backfield. 57% of the weighted opportunities means another back takes a real cut every week, so his floor rises and falls with game script. Production is running +1.1 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Dalton SchultzTE1TE5 in target share, NFL | 0.41strong for TE | 21.0%−10.0 vs W1 | 63%−12 vs W1 | 1 ▲0 · 0 · 1 | Set & forget | |
The ceiling problem in two numbers: a 13.8% air-yards share and a 6.3 aDOT. His targets travel nowhere, so even a healthy target share converts to modest yardage — and the share itself is the one drifting down. Production is running +1.3 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| Xavier HutchinsonWR1WR40 in target share, NFL | 0.44flex range | 17.6%+6.4 vs W1 | 65%steady | 10 · 1 · 0 | Starter | |
The role is arriving before the box score does. His target share has run 16% → 17% → 22% over the last 3 games. Volume that is growing this fast gets repriced the week it scores. He's −4.1 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Woody MarksRB2, 40% of RB touchesRB39 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 40% | 6.7%steady | 46%−14 vs W1 | 5 ▲0 · 3 · 2 | Volatile | |
A shared backfield. 43% of the weighted opportunities means another back takes a real cut every week, so his floor rises and falls with game script. Production is running −1.2 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Jared WayneWR2WR75 in target share, NFL | 0.27below startable | 10.1%+12.2 vs W1 | 46%+29 vs W1 | 11 · 0 · 0 | Volatile | |
The role is arriving before the box score does. His target share has run 3% → 13% → 15% over the last 3 games. Volume that is growing this fast gets repriced the week it scores. He's −4.1 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| C.J. StroudQB1QB14 in xFP/game, NFL | —every dropback | —the passer | 100%steady | 00 · 0 · 0 | Starter | |
A pocket passer's profile. 0 green-zone carries and a 3.8% scramble rate: his points have to come through the air, so his weekly range follows the pass volume (QB14 in expected points). Production is running −1.2 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs. | ||||||
How to read this table
- Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
- Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
- Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
- Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
- Stash the role behind the role
- WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
- + button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league
Buy low
Jared Wayne
The role is arriving before the box score does. Trade for him this week — not after the two-touchdown game makes it obvious to your league.
- +29snap share pts since W1
- +12.2target share pts since W1
Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser like Wayne gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.
Explore StatChasers
- Fantasy Football ToolsThe #1 ranked fantasy football toolset.Open
- Advanced Player StatsDeeper numbers on every player in the league.Open
- Strength of ScheduleMatchup difficulty by fantasy position, including the playoff weeks.Open
- Fantasy Points AllowedHow Houston's defense performs against QB, RB, WR and TE.Open
Common questions
Who leads the Houston Texans in target share?
Dalton Schultz leads the Houston Texans with a 21.0% target share through Week 4, down 10.0 points since Week 1. Xavier Hutchinson is second at 17.6%.