NFC North · 2026 Season
Chicago Bears
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Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears Usage & Opportunity Report 2026
Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday
Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.
- Pass rate over expected−2.0%17thThrows about as much as situations call for — the target tree, not the play-calling, decides who eats
- Red-zone pass rate49%25thRun-first inside the 20 — Swift's 10 green-zone carries eat the receivers' TDs
- Neutral pace33.0s17th fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations
- Plays per game68.72ndOffensive plays a game — extra volume lifts every starter's floor
- Team xFP / game104.84thTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates — a rising tide for every starter
The Target Tree
All 97 Bears pass attempts through Week 4
- Luther Burden 23.7%
- Kalif Raymond 21.6%
- Rome Odunze 13.4%
- D'Andre Swift 9.3%
- Colston Loveland 9.3%
- Kmet/Monangai/Roush 13.4%
- Everyone else 2.1%
- No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 7.2%
The Backfield Split
Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.
- D'Andre Swift 65.5%
- Kyle Monangai 34.5%
Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.
- 24.0Swift weighted opps/game — RB9 in the NFL
- 19Swift high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
- 12.7Monangai weighted opps/game
- +4.1Swift wOpp/g vs. last season — role grew, not just efficiency
Why Swift's floor holds in PPR: He keeps 67% of the backs' third-down work as well as the early downs, so his catches don't depend on game script — a 45-catch pace. No one on this depth chart takes the hurry-up snaps from him.
The Monangai math if Swift misses time: Monangai backs up the early-down and red-zone roles (the valuable ones). A Swift absence projects Monangai to ~100% of weighted opportunities — about 36.7 a game, a top-12 weekly RB by volume — worth a bench spot in deeper leagues.
Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap
- 4.04 attLeft end
- 5.716 attLeft tackle
- 5.139 attMiddle
- 4.020 attRight tackle
- 4.912 attRight end
Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.
The left side is the run game's engine: 5.7 yards per carry behind left tackle — 22% of all designed runs go that way. Interior volume (39 attempts) does the clock work at 5.1; the left edge does the damage. When the line's left side sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.
Where Williams Attacks
Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4
- 3%16.7 YPADeep left
- 1%0.0 YPADeep middle
- 6%15.0 YPADeep right · Odunze
Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards
- 29%7.4 YPAShort left
- 29%8.0 YPAShort middle
- 32%4.4 YPAShort right · Raymond
The short middle is the efficiency engine (8 YPA). Williams keeps 90% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep left his most explosive zone (16.7 YPA on 3 attempts). Odunze's fantasy problem, mapped: a 17.2-yard aDOT puts him in the 10% deep slice of this chart while the short middle feasts. Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.
| Profile | Player | Opportunity (WOPR) | Target share | Snap share | RZ touches | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre SwiftRB1, 65% of RB touchesRB9 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 65% | 9.3%+5.4 vs W1 | 65%+12 vs W1 | 156 · 3 · 6 — leads team | Set & forget | |
The locked-in workhorse. A 68% share of the backs' red-zone work is the RB stat that tracks fantasy points best, and 10 green-zone carries put him at the goal line. Production is running −0.2 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Luther BurdenWR1WR17 in target share, NFL | 0.53strong — elite at 0.60 | 23.7%+15.2 vs W1 | 64%−12 vs W1 | 7 ▲0 · 2 · 5 | Set & forget | |
The role is arriving before the box score does. His target share has run 17% → 21% → 32% over the last 3 games, with a 30% first-read share saying the plays are being designed for him. Volume that is growing this fast gets repriced the week it scores. He's −2.3 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Kalif RaymondWR2WR26 in target share, NFL | 0.45strong — elite at 0.60 | 21.6%−10.4 vs W1 | 66%+15 vs W1 | 31 · 1 · 1 | Set & forget | |
The ceiling problem in two numbers: a 18.1% air-yards share and a 6.2 aDOT. His targets travel nowhere, so even a healthy target share converts to modest yardage. He's scoring +4.2 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 11.2 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Rome OdunzeWR3WR59 in target share, NFL | 0.42flex range | 13.4%+7.3 vs W1 | 72%+37 vs W1 | 2 ▲0 · 0 · 2 | Volatile | |
The role is arriving before the box score does. His target share has run 10% → 12% → 18% over the last 3 games. Volume that is growing this fast gets repriced the week it scores. Production is running −1.2 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Kyle MonangaiRB2, 35% of RB touchesRB39 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 35% | 4.1%−6.9 vs W1 | 36%−12 vs W1 | 7 ▲1 · 3 · 3 | Volatile | |
A shared backfield. 35% of the weighted opportunities means another back takes a real cut every week, so his floor rises and falls with game script. He's scoring +2.8 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 7.6 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Colston LovelandTE1TE29 in target share, NFL | 0.18below startable | 9.3%+4.9 vs W1 | 84%−8 vs W1 | 31 · 1 · 1 | Volatile | |
The role is arriving before the box score does. His target share has run 7% → 9% → 12% over the last 3 games. Volume that is growing this fast gets repriced the week it scores. He's −3.8 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| Caleb WilliamsQB1QB4 in xFP/game, NFL | —every dropback | —the passer | 63%−14 vs W1 | 43 · 1 · – | Set & forget | |
The goal-line QB. 3 green-zone carries in 2 games and a 6.7% designed-run rate — with a 39% pass rate inside the 10, the most valuable real estate in fantasy goes to his legs as often as his arm. His xFP alone (QB4 league-wide) justifies the price before any efficiency. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs. | ||||||
How to read this table
- Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
- Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
- Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
- Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
- Stash the role behind the role
- WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
- + button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league
Buy low
Rome Odunze
The role is arriving before the box score does. Trade for him this week — not after the two-touchdown game makes it obvious to your league.
- +37snap share pts since W1
- +7.3target share pts since W1
Watch
Colston Loveland
Under 10% target share on a shrinking snap count. One more quiet week and he's droppable in 12-team leagues; an injury above him is the fastest path back.
- 11.8%W3 target share
- 2RZ touches since W1
Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser like Odunze gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.
Explore StatChasers
- Fantasy Football ToolsThe #1 ranked fantasy football toolset.Open
- Advanced Player StatsDeeper numbers on every player in the league.Open
- Strength of ScheduleMatchup difficulty by fantasy position, including the playoff weeks.Open
- Fantasy Points AllowedHow Chicago's defense performs against QB, RB, WR and TE.Open
Common questions
Who leads the Chicago Bears in target share?
Luther Burden leads the Chicago Bears with a 23.7% target share through Week 4, up 15.2 points since Week 1. Kalif Raymond is second at 21.6%.