Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills, Wild Card 2023
Pittsburgh Steelers
Away
17
Buffalo Bills
HomeWon, advanced
31
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 0 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| Bills | 14 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 31 |
PIT 17BUF 31 Final
Passing leader
17.8PPR pts
22/39, 229 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
Top fantasy scorer
14.9PPR pts
3 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD
Steelers leader
Diontae Johnson
14.8PPR pts
4 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD
Defensive playmaker
Kaiir Elam
1 INT, 5 TKL
Bills 31, Steelers 17: Buffalo controls the 2023 Wild Card from start to finish
Buffalo led 21–7 at halftime to win 31–17. The Bills finished with a 368–324 edge in total offense and averaged 5.6 yards per play.
The Steelers went 5-for-11 on third down and committed two turnovers, while the Bills kept the ball for 33:19 and finished without a giveaway.
The Bills' run ended in the Divisional Round, a 27–24 loss to the Chiefs.
Key advantages
- +0.5 yards/play BUF 5.6 · PIT 5.1
- +2 turnover margin BUF 0 turnovers
- +44 total yards BUF 368 · PIT 324
Game Highlights
Official NFL highlights · Opens from YouTube
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Why the Bills Won
Buffalo won the efficiency, turnover, and time of possession battles.
| Steelers | Stat | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 5.1 | Yards per play | 5.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 324 | Total yards | 368 |
| Other team stats | ||
| 63 | Plays | 66 |
| 45% | Third-down conversion | 42% |
| 26:41 | Time of possession | 33:19 |
Scoring Summary
The Bills scored four touchdowns and one field goal; the Steelers scored two touchdowns and one field goal.
| Time | Team | Play | PIT | BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter | ||||
| 7:02 | BUF | Josh Allen → Dawson Knox, 9-yard TD Takes leadTyler Bass XP | 0 | 7 |
| 4:10 | BUF | Josh Allen → Dalton Kincaid, 29-yard TD Extends leadTyler Bass XP | 0 | 14 |
| 2nd quarter | ||||
| 7:01 | BUF | Josh Allen 52-yard TD run Extends leadTyler Bass XP | 0 | 21 |
| 1:39 | PIT | Mason Rudolph → Diontae Johnson, 10-yard TDChris Boswell XP | 7 | 21 |
| 3rd quarter | ||||
| 8:50 | PIT | Chris Boswell 40-yard FG | 10 | 21 |
| 1:32 | BUF | Tyler Bass 45-yard FG Extends lead | 10 | 24 |
| 4th quarter | ||||
| 10:32 | PIT | Mason Rudolph → Calvin Austin III, 7-yard TDChris Boswell XP | 17 | 24 |
| 6:27 | BUF | Josh Allen → Khalil Shakir, 17-yard TD Extends leadTyler Bass XP | 17 | 31 |
Playoff game: these points don't count in most season-long fantasy leagues.
Fantasy Points vs Expected
Expected points (xFP) are what a player's pass attempts, carries and targets are worth at the league's average rates; the difference is what the player made of them.
- Biggest overperformer+16.0Josh Allen33.5 PTS vs 17.5 xFP
- Biggest underperformer−9.5George Pickens9.5 PTS vs 19.0 xFP
- Highest expected volume19.0 xFPGeorge Pickens9.5 PTS scored
| Player | PTS | xFP | vs xFP | Snap% | Usage | Rte% | Pass att | Car | Car% | Tgt | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George PickensPIT · WR | 9.5 | 19.0 | −9.5 | — | 29% tgt | — | 0 | 1 | 4% | 11 | 29% |
| James Cook IIIBUF · RB | 12.4 | 17.7 | −5.3 | — | 53% car | — | 0 | 18 | 53% | 4 | 13% |
| Mason RudolphPIT · QB | 17.8 | 17.6 | +0.2 | — | 39 att | — | 39 | 2 | 9% | 0 | 0% |
| Josh AllenBUF · QB | 33.5 | 17.5 | +16.0 | — | 30 att | — | 30 | 8 | 24% | 0 | 0% |
| Stefon DiggsBUF · WR | 12.2 | 15.0 | −2.8 | — | 30% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 9 | 30% |
| Pat FreiermuthPIT · TE | 12.6 | 13.4 | −0.8 | — | 21% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 8 | 21% |
| Najee HarrisPIT · RB | 7.2 | 12.4 | −5.2 | — | 52% car | — | 0 | 12 | 52% | 3 | 8% |
| Diontae JohnsonPIT · WR | 14.8 | 11.7 | +3.1 | — | 18% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 7 | 18% |
| Dalton KincaidBUF · TE | 14.9 | 10.0 | +4.9 | — | 20% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 6 | 20% |
| Jaylen WarrenPIT · RB | 7.4 | 8.2 | −0.8 | — | 35% car | — | 0 | 8 | 35% | 2 | 5% |
| Ty JohnsonBUF · RB | 2.6 | 8.2 | −5.6 | — | 24% car | — | 0 | 8 | 24% | 2 | 7% |
| Allen RobinsonPIT · WR | 3.2 | 5.0 | −1.8 | — | 8% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3 | 8% |
| Khalil ShakirBUF · WR | 12.1 | 5.0 | +7.1 | — | 10% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3 | 10% |
| Calvin Austin IIIPIT · WR | 7.7 | 3.3 | +4.4 | — | 5% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2 | 5% |
| Dawson KnoxBUF · TE | 7.9 | 3.3 | +4.6 | — | 7% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2 | 7% |
| Latavius MurrayBUF · RB | 3.3 | 3.3 | 0.0 | — | 7% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2 | 7% |
| Andy IsabellaBUF · WR | 0.0 | 1.7 | −1.7 | — | 3% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 3% |
| Connor HeywardPIT · RB | 1.5 | 1.7 | −0.2 | — | 3% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 3% |
| Darnell WashingtonPIT · TE | 0.0 | 1.7 | −1.7 | — | 3% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 3% |
| Deonte HartyBUF · WR | 4.4 | 1.7 | +2.7 | — | 3% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 3% |
Team totals: Steelers 38 targets and 23 carries; Bills 30 targets and 34 carries. Shares are from the box score. Snap counts aren't available for this game. Route counts, air yards and red-zone touches appear when the tracking feed is connected. League-average rates from the 2023 season: 1.67 PPR points per target (67% catch rate), 0.61 per carry and 0.42 per pass attempt. They don't adjust for field position or target depth.
Fantasy Verdicts
Mason Rudolph
22 of 39 passing for 229 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception; 2 carries for 16 yards.
Verdict: The points matched the role, 17.6 expected.
Josh Allen Ran hot
21 of 30 passing for 203 yards, 3 touchdowns; 8 carries for 74 yards and 1 touchdown.
Verdict: The opportunities were worth 17.5 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.
No interceptions after 4 in the previous four games. Best score since Week 12.
George Pickens Unlucky
11 targets (29% of the team's), 5 catches for 50 yards; 1 carry (4% of the team's) for 15 yards.
Verdict: The role was there, worth 19.0 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.
Season high in targets (11).
Pat Freiermuth
8 targets (21% of the team's), 5 catches for 76 yards.
Verdict: The points matched the role, 13.4 expected.
Best score since Week 12.
James Cook III Unlucky
4 targets (13% of the team's), 4 catches for 5 yards; 18 carries (53% of the team's) for 79 yards.
Verdict: The role was there, worth 17.7 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.
Best score since Week 15.
Stefon Diggs Volume, no payoff
9 targets (30% of the team's), 7 catches for 52 yards.
Verdict: The points matched the role, 15.0 expected.
Najee Harris Unlucky
3 targets (8% of the team's), 2 catches for 15 yards; 12 carries (52% of the team's) for 37 yards.
Verdict: The role was there, worth 12.4 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.
Fewest points since Week 15.
Ty Johnson Unlucky
2 targets (7% of the team's), 0 catches for 0 yards; 8 carries (24% of the team's) for 26 yards.
Verdict: The role was there, worth 8.2 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.
Fantasy Matchups
Fantasy points allowed per game by position, 2023 through Week 18.
| Points allowed to | Steelers D | Bills D |
|---|---|---|
| QBs | 15.0 | 14.8 |
| RBs | 20.3 | 20.9 |
| WRs | 32.1 | 29.5 |
| TEs | 12.4 | 10.3 |
Regular season, summed from each game's box score and scored with this page's rules.
How the Game Swung
Buffalo opened at 50% win probability and passed 98% before halftime on the way to the win.
Bills win probability
Key Swings
- +21Allen → Knox, 9-yd TD50% → 71%Q1 7:02
- +16Allen → Kincaid, 29-yd TD72% → 87%Q1 4:10
- +7Allen 52-yd TD run91% → 98%Q2 7:01
- −6Rudolph → Johnson, 10-yd TD98% → 92%Q2 1:39
- −10Rudolph → Austin, 7-yd TD99% → 89%Q4 10:32
Swing in Bills win probability, in points
Play Calling and Possessions
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Measure | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 63 | Plays | 66 |
| 63% | Pass rate | 48% |
| 5.5 | Yds / dropback | 5.9 |
| 4.6 | Yds / carry | 5.3 |
| 5/11 | Third downs | 5/12 |
Efficiency edge Buffalo ran 3 more plays and gained 0.7 more yards per carry.
- Top targets
- PIT Pickens 29% · Freiermuth 21% · Johnson 18%
- BUF Diggs 30% · Kincaid 20% · Cook 13%
Possession Results
| Result | PIT | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Touchdowns | 2 | 4 |
| Field goals | 1 | 1 |
| Punts | 4 | 3 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Turnovers on downs | 1 | 0 |
| Missed field goals | 0 | 2 |
BUF turnover edge: +2
- The Bills opened the scoring on their first possession, a 10-play, 80-yard drive that ended in a touchdown.
- The Bills scored touchdowns on two of their first three drives, then drained the clock with two second-half drives of four to eight minutes.
All 22 possessions, drive by drive
| Team | Start | Plays | Yards | Time | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 19 | 2:25 | Punt |
| BUF | Q1 12:35 | 10 | 80 | 5:33 | Touchdown |
| PIT | Q1 7:02 | 3 | 6 | 1:41 | Punt |
| BUF | Q1 5:21 | 3 | 8 | 1:00 | Punt |
| PIT | Q1 4:21 | 1 | 8 | 0:06 | Fumble |
| BUF | Q1 4:15 | 1 | 29 | 0:05 | Touchdown |
| PIT | Q1 4:10 | 3 | 1 | 0:58 | Punt |
| BUF | Q1 3:12 | 3 | -4 | 1:29 | Punt |
| PIT | Q1 1:43 | 10 | 88 | 5:51 | Interception |
| BUF | Q2 10:52 | 8 | 80 | 3:51 | Touchdown |
| PIT | Q2 7:01 | 3 | 3 | 0:57 | Punt |
| BUF | Q2 6:04 | 8 | 48 | 3:50 | Missed FG |
| PIT | Q2 2:14 | 5 | 33 | 0:35 | Touchdown |
| BUF | Q2 1:39 | 4 | 4 | 1:39 | End of half |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | 1:36 | Punt |
| PIT | Q3 13:24 | 9 | 38 | 4:34 | Field goal |
| BUF | Q3 8:50 | 14 | 48 | 7:18 | Field goal |
| PIT | Q3 1:32 | 12 | 75 | 6:00 | Touchdown |
| BUF | Q4 10:32 | 7 | 70 | 4:05 | Touchdown |
| PIT | Q4 6:27 | 4 | 7 | 1:37 | Downs |
| BUF | Q4 4:50 | 8 | 23 | 2:53 | Missed FG |
| PIT | Q4 1:57 | 9 | 55 | 1:57 | End of game |
About these numbers
Possessions that ended with the clock running out at the half or the end of the game aren't counted.
Personnel groupings, average depth of target and pass rate over expected appear when the tracking feed is connected.
Steelers vs Bills Head-to-Head
The Steelers and Bills first met in 1970 and have played 31 times since.
- All-time series
- 17–14Steelers lead, 31 meetings since 1970
- Postseason
- 2–2Split 2–2
- Largest Steelers win
- 28–01979
- Largest Bills win
- 38–32022
Since 2021
3–1 Bills lead
4 meetings since the 2021 season, regular season and playoffs.
Oldest to newest. B = Bills win, S = Steelers win, outlined = this game.
Recent Meetings
- 2025 Wk 13 Bills at Steelers, 2025 Wk 13 recap BUF 26 PIT 7 BUF W
- 2023 Wild Card Steelers at Bills BUF 31 PIT 17 BUF W
- 2022 Wk 5 Steelers at Bills, 2022 Wk 5 recap BUF 38 PIT 3 BUF W
- 2021 Wk 1 Steelers at Bills, 2021 Wk 1 recap PIT 23 BUF 16 PIT W
Season to Date (Through Week 18)
The 2023 regular season, from each game's box score.
| Steelers | Stat | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 10-7 | Record | 11-6 |
| 17.9 | Points per game | 26.5 |
| 304.3 | Yards per game | 374.5 |
| 5.0 | Yards per play | 5.7 |
| 19.1 | Points allowed per game | 18.3 |
| 342.1 | Yards allowed per game | 307.2 |
Steelers and Bills in Fantasy
The two teams don't meet again this season. If you roster a Steeler or a Bill, these answer the week-to-week question.
- Start/Sit ToolShould your Steelers or Bills player start this week? Compare the decision against your other options.
- Fantasy Football ProjectionsSee the latest weekly and rest-of-season projections for Steelers and Bills players.
- Fantasy Points Allowed by PositionHow the Steelers and Bills defenses have treated QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs.
- Strength of ScheduleWhere each team's remaining games fall in your fantasy playoff run.
- Redraft CommandConnect your league for personalized lineup, trade and roster advice.
Keep Exploring
2023 Game Logs for Players in This Game
Steelers vs Bills Game FAQ
Who won the 2023 Steelers vs Bills Wild Card game?
The Buffalo Bills beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 31–17 in the Wild Card round of the 2023 playoffs. The game was played at Highmark Stadium (Old) in Orchard Park, NY, on January 15, 2024. See the Bills' 2023 schedule.
What was the final score of Steelers vs Bills?
The final score was Bills 31, Steelers 17. The Bills led 21–7 at halftime, and the second half went Steelers 10, Bills 10.
What happened in the Steelers vs Bills game?
Buffalo led 21–7 at halftime to win 31–17. The Bills finished with a 368–324 edge in total offense and averaged 5.6 yards per play. The Steelers committed 2 turnovers, the Bills none.
How did the Bills beat the Steelers?
The Bills beat the Steelers 31–17 because they averaged 5.6 yards per play to 5.1, won the turnover battle 2–0, and outgained them 368–324.
Which team won the turnover battle in Steelers vs Bills?
The Bills won the turnover battle 2–0: the Steelers gave the ball away 2 times and the Bills not at all. The Bills won the game.
What is the all-time Steelers vs Bills record?
The Steelers lead the all-time series 17–14 across 31 meetings since 1970, including a 2–2 record in the postseason.
When did the Steelers and Bills last play before this game?
Before the 2023 Wild Card round, they last met in the 2022 season on October 9, 2022, when the Bills beat the Steelers 38–3.
Have the Steelers and Bills met in the playoffs?
Yes, 4 times, most recently in the 2023 playoffs. The Steelers are 2–2 against the Bills in the postseason.
What is the Steelers vs Bills record since 2021?
The Bills lead 3–1 across 4 meetings since the 2021 season, including this game.