AFC East · 2026 Season
New York Jets
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New York Jets
New York Jets Usage & Opportunity Report 2026
Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday
Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.
- Pass rate over expected−1.0%14thThrows about as much as situations call for — the target tree, not the play-calling, decides who eats
- Red-zone pass rate52%22ndBalanced inside the 20 — Hall leads the team with 8 red-zone touches
- Neutral pace35.5s30th fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations — a slow offense shrinks the pie
- Plays per game64.08thOffensive plays a game — extra volume lifts every starter's floor
- Team xFP / game84.918thTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates
The Target Tree
All 101 Jets pass attempts through Week 4
- Garrett Wilson 26.7%
- Adonai Mitchell 14.9%
- Kenyon Sadiq 13.9%
- Breece Hall 9.9%
- Isaiah Williams 8.9%
- Ruckert/Allen/Taylor 15.8%
- Everyone else 4.0%
- No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 5.9%
The Backfield Split
Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.
- Breece Hall 71.0%
- Braelon Allen 29.0%
Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.
- 23.7Hall weighted opps/game — RB11 in the NFL
- 14Hall high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
- 9.7Allen weighted opps/game
- +2.5Hall wOpp/g vs. last season — role grew, not just efficiency
Why Hall's floor holds in PPR: He keeps 54% of the backs' third-down work as well as the early downs, so his catches don't depend on game script — a 57-catch pace. Trailing by 7+, he still gets 33% of the backs' work — no one takes the hurry-up snaps from him.
The Allen math if Hall misses time: Allen backs up the early-down and red-zone roles (the valuable ones). A Hall absence projects Allen to ~100% of weighted opportunities — about 33.4 a game, a top-12 weekly RB by volume — and why he's a STASH, not a cut.
Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap
- 4.99 attLeft end
- 1.89 attLeft tackle
- 3.140 attMiddle
- 4.45 attRight tackle
- 3.99 attRight end
Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.
The left side is the run game's engine: 4.9 yards per carry off left end — 25% of all designed runs go that way, and two of Hall's three longest runs came off the left side. Interior volume (40 attempts) does the clock work at 3.1; the left edge does the damage. When the line's left side sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.
Where Smith Attacks
Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4
- 5%17.2 YPADeep left
- 2%16.0 YPADeep middle
- 4%21.8 YPADeep right
Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards
- 37%5.6 YPAShort left
- 13%6.2 YPAShort middle · Wilson
- 40%7.3 YPAShort right
The short right is the efficiency engine (7.3 YPA). Smith keeps 89% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep right his most explosive zone (21.8 YPA on 4 attempts). Mitchell's fantasy problem, mapped: a 15.8-yard aDOT puts him in the 11% deep slice of this chart while the short right feasts. Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.
| Profile | Player | Opportunity (WOPR) | Target share | Snap share | RZ touches | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett WilsonWR1WR6 in target share, NFL | 0.67elite | 26.7%+5.9 vs W1 | 86%+19 vs W1 | 10 · 1 · 0 | Set & forget | |
The alpha profile, fully formed. A 38.2% air-yards share clears the 30% alpha threshold, a 36.8% first-read share says the offense is designed through him, and a 10.5-yard aDOT sits in the sweet spot — deep enough for ceiling, not so deep it gets volatile. He's scoring +3.3 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 15.8 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Breece HallRB1, 73% of RB touchesRB11 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 73% | 9.9%steady | 57%−10 vs W1 | 84 · 1 · 3 — leads team | Set & forget | |
The locked-in workhorse. A 57% share of the backs' red-zone work is the RB stat that tracks fantasy points best, and 4 green-zone carries put him at the goal line. Production is running −1.1 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Adonai MitchellWR2WR56 in target share, NFL | 0.45strong — elite at 0.60 | 14.9%+17.5 vs W1 | 52%+13 vs W1 | 1 ▲0 · 1 · – | Volatile | |
The role is arriving before the box score does. His target share has run 13% → 30% over the last 3 games. Volume that is growing this fast gets repriced the week it scores. He's −1.6 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Kenyon SadiqTE1TE17 in target share, NFL | 0.29streamer range | 13.9%+9.1 vs W1 | 45%+16 vs W1 | 11 · 0 · 0 | Volatile | |
The role is arriving before the box score does. His target share has run 13% → 8% → 22% over the last 3 games. Volume that is growing this fast gets repriced the week it scores. He's scoring +4.3 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 8.6 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| Isaiah WilliamsWR3WR80 in target share, NFL | 0.17below startable | 8.9%steady | 77%+29 vs W1 | 10 · 1 · 0 | Volatile | |
The ceiling problem in two numbers: a 5% air-yards share and a 4.1 aDOT. His targets travel nowhere, so even a healthy target share converts to modest yardage. Production is running +0.6 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Braelon AllenRB2 · handcuff, 27% of RB touchesRB46 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 27% | 5.0%+3.9 vs W1 | 41%+12 vs W1 | 6 ▲1 · 2 · 3 | Stash | |
Contingent value, quantified. The 27% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Hall misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Geno SmithQB1QB25 in xFP/game, NFL | —every dropback | —the passer | 100%steady | 11 · 0 · 0 | Volatile | |
A pocket passer's profile. 0 green-zone carries and a 6.8% scramble rate: his points have to come through the air, so his weekly range follows the pass volume (QB25 in expected points). He's scoring +2.7 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 15 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs. | ||||||
How to read this table
- Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
- Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
- Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
- Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
- Stash the role behind the role
- WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
- + button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league
Buy low
Adonai Mitchell
The role is arriving before the box score does. Trade for him this week — not after the two-touchdown game makes it obvious to your league.
- +13snap share pts since W1
- +17.5target share pts since W1
Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser like Mitchell gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.
Explore StatChasers
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- Fantasy Points AllowedHow New York's defense performs against QB, RB, WR and TE.Open
Common questions
Who leads the New York Jets in target share?
Garrett Wilson leads the New York Jets with a 26.7% target share through Week 4, up 5.9 points since Week 1. Adonai Mitchell is second at 14.9%.