NFC East · 2026 Season
Washington Commanders
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Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders Usage & Opportunity Report 2026
Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday
Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.
- Pass rate over expected−3.5%22ndRuns more than game situations call for — a cap on the pass-catchers' volume and a floor under Croskey-Merritt
- Red-zone pass rate55%17thBalanced inside the 20 — White leads the team with 6 red-zone touches
- Neutral pace33.1s18th fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations
- Plays per game65.74thOffensive plays a game — extra volume lifts every starter's floor
- Team xFP / game94.510thTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates
The Target Tree
All 100 Commanders pass attempts through Week 4
- Terry McLaurin 22.0%
- Stefon Diggs 22.0%
- Antonio Williams 11.0%
- Rachaad White 9.0%
- Dyami Brown 9.0%
- Bates/Croskey-Merritt/Okonkwo 10.0%
- Everyone else 10.0%
- No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 7.0%
The Backfield Split
Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt 52.0%
- Rachaad White 39.2%
- Kaytron Allen 8.8%
Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.
- 17.7Croskey-Merritt weighted opps/game — RB24 in the NFL
- 5Croskey-Merritt high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
- 13.3White weighted opps/game
- +5.9Croskey-Merritt wOpp/g vs. last season — role grew, not just efficiency
Why Croskey-Merritt's reception count stays capped: Rachaad White owns 88% of the backs' third-down work and 46% of two-minute work. Croskey-Merritt's 17-catch pace isn't a talent question — the passing-down role belongs to White. Green flag for his rushing floor, hard ceiling on his PPR upside.
The White math if Croskey-Merritt misses time: White backs up the early-down and red-zone roles (the valuable ones). A Croskey-Merritt absence projects White to ~71% of weighted opportunities — about 25.3 a game, a top-12 weekly RB by volume — worth a bench spot in deeper leagues.
Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap
- 3.76 attLeft end
- 4.110 attLeft tackle
- 3.152 attMiddle
- 4.29 attRight tackle
- 7.84 attRight end
Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.
The right side is the run game's engine: 4.2 yards per carry behind right tackle and 7.8 off right end — 16% of all designed runs go that way. Interior volume (52 attempts) does the clock work at 3.1; the right edge does the damage. When the line's right side sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.
Where Daniels Attacks
Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4
- 6%10.5 YPADeep left
- 1%0.0 YPADeep middle
- 11%4.0 YPADeep right
Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards
- 27%5.6 YPAShort left
- 15%6.4 YPAShort middle
- 40%5.0 YPAShort right
The short middle is the efficiency engine (6.4 YPA). Daniels keeps 82% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep left his most explosive zone (10.5 YPA on 6 attempts). Brown's fantasy problem, mapped: a 14.9-yard aDOT puts him in the 18% deep slice of this chart while the short middle feasts. Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.
| Profile | Player | Opportunity (WOPR) | Target share | Snap share | RZ touches | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurinWR1WR23 in target share, NFL | 0.55strong — elite at 0.60 | 22.0%+17.2 vs W1 | 78%−12 vs W1 | 21 · 1 · 0 | Set & forget | |
The alpha profile, fully formed. A 31% air-yards share clears the 30% alpha threshold, a 27.6% first-read share says the offense is designed through him, and a 13-yard aDOT sits in the sweet spot — deep enough for ceiling, not so deep it gets volatile. He's −3.4 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Stefon DiggsWR2WR23 in target share, NFL | 0.47strong — elite at 0.60 | 22.0%−3.9 vs W1 | 58%steady | 41 · 3 · 0 | Set & forget | |
Volume you can set in the lineup. A 22% target share and 12.1 expected points a game, with a 27.6% first-read share; a 20.3% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. He's scoring +2.8 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 12.1 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB1, 56% of RB touchesRB24 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 56% | 3.0%steady | 47%+8 vs W1 | 5 ▲1 · 1 · 3 | Starter | |
A shared backfield. 52% of the weighted opportunities means another back takes a real cut every week, so his floor rises and falls with game script. He's −1.5 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Rachaad WhiteRB2, 34% of RB touchesRB35 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 34% | 9.0%−2.7 vs W1 | 46%steady | 62 · 2 · 2 — leads team | Volatile | |
A shared backfield. 39% of the weighted opportunities means another back takes a real cut every week, so his floor rises and falls with game script. Production is running +1.1 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Antonio WilliamsWR3WR70 in target share, NFL | 0.26below startable | 11.0%steady | 42%steady | 22 · 0 · 0 | Volatile | |
Not enough of the pie. A 11% target share is under the line where weekly fantasy value lives, and a 6.9% first-read share says he's rarely the design. He needs an injury above him or a role change, not a better matchup. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Dyami BrownWR4WR79 in target share, NFL | 0.24below startable | 9.0%−2.7 vs W1 | 46%−23 vs W1 | 10 · 1 · 0 | Volatile | |
The deep-decoy profile. A 14.9-yard aDOT sits past the depth where weekly production turns boom/bust, and a 9% target share says he isn't earning volume when he's out there. Best-ball ceiling, seasonal-league headache. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Jayden DanielsQB1QB7 in xFP/game, NFL | —every dropback | —the passer | 52%−45 vs W1 | 42 · 2 · – | Set & forget | |
A pocket passer's profile. 1 green-zone carry and a 14.8% scramble rate: his points have to come through the air, so his weekly range follows the pass volume (QB7 in expected points). He's −4.5 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs. | ||||||
How to read this table
- Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
- Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
- Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
- Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
- Stash the role behind the role
- WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
- + button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league
Buy low
Terry McLaurin
The volume is there and the points aren't — yet. 13.5 expected points a game against 10 actual is the gap that closes on its own. Trade for him before it does.
- 13.5xFP per game
- −3.4points vs. expected per game
Watch
Dyami Brown
Under 10% target share on a shrinking snap count. One more quiet week and he's droppable in 12-team leagues; an injury above him is the fastest path back.
- 3.2%W3 target share
- 1RZ touches since W1
Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser like McLaurin gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.
Explore StatChasers
- Fantasy Football ToolsThe #1 ranked fantasy football toolset.Open
- Advanced Player StatsDeeper numbers on every player in the league.Open
- Strength of ScheduleMatchup difficulty by fantasy position, including the playoff weeks.Open
- Fantasy Points AllowedHow Washington's defense performs against QB, RB, WR and TE.Open
Common questions
Who leads the Washington Commanders in target share?
Terry McLaurin leads the Washington Commanders with a 22.0% target share through Week 4, up 17.2 points since Week 1. Stefon Diggs is second at 22.0%.