Patrick Mahomes Dynasty Value 2026
Patrick Mahomes dynasty outlook: superflex and 1QB value, dynasty rank, age curve, startup and rookie draft cost, long-term market trend, production history and trade context.
Patrick Mahomes dynasty outlook
Patrick Mahomes is ranked #28 overall and QB8 in StatChasers' superflex dynasty rankings, a first-round startup piece at a market value of 4,536.
He is 31.0 years old — in the long quarterback prime. Age is weighted per position in the model value, so this is priced in rather than mentioned in passing.
His win-now value (3,513) and dynasty value (4,536) are close, so he costs about the same to a contender as to a rebuilder.
Format matters here: Patrick is worth 4,536 in superflex against 2,728 in 1QB, a +66.3% difference — the usual superflex quarterback premium. Check which format a comparable trade came from before using it as a price.
The model values Patrick +16.6% above the dynasty market, a buy-low signal: his production and age say the price is too low.
In dynasty startup drafts Patrick goes at pick 43.3 on average (round 4.07 in a 12-team startup, QB11 by ADP), with a typical range of 23 to 77 across 912 drafts; his startup cost is falling over the last 30 days (-4.0 picks).
Over the longer run his startup ADP has fallen: from an average pick of 2.0 in 2024-01 to 37.4 in 2026-09, across 29 months of drafts.
Production trajectory: 21.2 PPR points per game in 2025 over 14 games, up from 18.4 in 2024, finishing QB11.
Drafted round 1, pick 10 by Kansas City Chiefs in 2017. Draft capital keeps mattering in dynasty long after it stops mattering in redraft — teams keep giving opportunity to players they spent a pick on.
Player profile
| Team | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Position | QB |
| Age | 31.0 |
| Experience | 9 yrs |
| Number | #15 |
| Bye week | Week 5 |
| Status | Active |
Dynasty value
| Superflex value (StatChasers Market) | 4,536 |
| Superflex rank | #28 · QB8 |
| 1QB value | 2,728 |
| 1QB rank | #59 · QB8 |
| 30-day movement | — |
| Win-now (redraft) value | 3,513 |
| Timeline | Balanced |
| Model value | 5,291 |
| Model vs market | +16.6% |
| Signal | Buy |
Run a trade with Patrick in the dynasty trade calculator, or find one with the dynasty trade finder.
Patrick Mahomes startup draft cost
Drafted in 912 completed dynasty startup drafts · overall ADP rank #39 · QB11 · earliest pick 6, latest 136 · 7-day -2.0, 14-day —. Expected pick 38.6; availability falls off hardest between picks 30 and 31 (−7 points of availability). Full board on the dynasty startup rankings page.
Patrick Mahomes dynasty value trend
Average startup-draft pick by month, oldest to newest — a taller bar is an earlier pick and a more valuable player. Months with fewer than three completed drafts are omitted. Range over this window: pick 2.0 to 66.0.
Patrick Mahomes production by season
Career production, which in dynasty is read as a trajectory rather than a snapshot: the direction across seasons matters more than any single line.
| Season | Team | Games | PPR / game | Half / game | Std / game | PPR finish | Half finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | KC | 14 | 21.2 | 21.2 | 21.1 | QB11 | QB11 |
| 2024 | KC | 16 | 18.4 | 18.3 | 18.3 | QB11 | QB11 |
| 2023 | KC | 16 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | QB8 | QB8 |
| 2022 | KC | 17 | 25.2 | 25.2 | 25.1 | QB1 | QB1 |
| 2021 | KC | 17 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | QB4 | QB4 |
| 2020 | KC | 15 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | QB4 | QB4 |
Patrick Mahomes draft capital and athletic profile
Combine measurements with the percentile against other QBs in the database. Athletic profile and draft capital are long-horizon inputs — they say little about next Sunday and a good deal about how long a team keeps handing a player opportunity.
Draft capital
| Draft class | 2017 |
| Round | 1 |
| Overall pick | #10 |
| Drafted by | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Height | 6'2" |
| Weight | 225 lb |
Combine testing
Bar length is the percentile against the position cohort.
Patrick Mahomes injury history
Durability compounds over a dynasty horizon in a way it never does over one season, so the record is here in full rather than summarised into a grade.
| Season | Week | Injury | Severity | Games missed | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15 | Torn ACL and LCL | 3 | Suffered a torn ACL and LCL in a game against the Los Angeles Chargers, which ended his season. | |
| 2024 | 9 | Ankle Injury | minor | 0 | Injured his left ankle in the fourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but returned to the game. |
| 2022 | 20 | High Ankle Sprain | moderate | 0 | Suffered a high ankle sprain in the AFC Divisional Round against the Jacksonville Jaguars and played through the injury for the remainder of the playoffs. |
| 2022 | 13 | Foot Bruise | minor | 0 | Dealt with a foot bruise in December of the 2022 season. |
| 2020 | 20 | Turf Toe | moderate | 0 | Suffered a turf toe injury in the playoffs in January 2021. |
| 2020 | 20 | Concussion | minor | 0 | Sustained a Grade 1 concussion in the AFC Divisional Round in January 2021. |
| 2019 | 7 | Patella Dislocation | moderate | 2 | Dislocated his right patella against the Denver Broncos and missed the following two games. |
| 2019 | 1 | Ankle Sprain | minor | 0 | Injured his ankle in the season opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars but did not miss time. |
Dynasty assets valued near Patrick Mahomes
Same position, nearest dynasty value — the players he is realistically swapped for.
Use Patrick in the dynasty tools
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Data on this page updated 2026-09-30.