Final2025 Week 16

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers, Week 16 2025

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Away

20

Carolina Panthers

HomeWon

23

Scoring by quarter
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Buccaneers737320
Panthers3107323

TB 20CAR 23 Final

  • Passing leader

    Bryce Young

    CAR · QB

    17.6PPR pts

    21/32, 191 YDS, 2 TD

  • Top fantasy scorer

    Tetairoa McMillan

    CAR · WR

    19.3PPR pts

    6 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD

  • Buccaneers leader

    Mike Evans

    TB · WR

    14.1PPR pts

    5 REC, 31 YDS, 1 TD

  • Defensive playmaker

    Lathan Ransom

    CAR

    1 INT, 1 TKL

Panthers 23, Buccaneers 20: Carolina holds off Tampa Bay

Carolina led 13–10 at halftime to win 23–20. Tampa Bay outgained the Panthers 296–275, but the Panthers averaged 5.1 yards per play.

The Buccaneers went 8-for-14 on third down and committed one turnover, while the Panthers finished without a giveaway.

The two teams meet again in Week 7 of 2026. If you roster anyone from either side, run the start/sit call in Redraft Command and it will weigh your lineup, your opponent and your league scoring, not only the player rankings.

Key advantages

  • +0.2 yards/play CAR 5.1 · TB 4.9
  • +1 turnover margin CAR 0 turnovers

Game Highlights

Official NFL highlights · Opens from YouTube

Got a Buccaneer or Panther on your fantasy team?

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Why the Panthers Won

Carolina won the efficiency and turnover battles.

Team stats comparison, Buccaneers vs Panthers
BuccaneersStatPanthers
4.9Yards per play5.1
1Turnovers0
Other team stats
296Total yards275
61Plays54
57%Third-down conversion50%
34:36Time of possession25:24

Scoring Summary

The Panthers scored two touchdowns and three field goals; the Buccaneers scored two touchdowns and two field goals.

Scoring plays, Buccaneers vs Panthers
TimeTeamPlayTBCAR
1st quarter
10:30CARRyan Fitzgerald 27-yard FG Takes lead03
4:01TBBaker Mayfield → Mike Evans, 1-yard TD Takes leadChase McLaughlin XP73
2nd quarter
8:09TBChase McLaughlin 23-yard FG Extends lead103
2:06CARRyan Fitzgerald 41-yard FG106
0:07CARBryce Young → Tetairoa McMillan, 22-yard TD Takes leadRyan Fitzgerald XP1013
3rd quarter
6:41TBSean Tucker 1-yard TD run Takes leadChase McLaughlin XP1713
0:08CARBryce Young → Ja'Tavion Sanders, 6-yard TD Takes leadRyan Fitzgerald XP1720
4th quarter
11:24TBChase McLaughlin 50-yard FG Ties game2020
2:20CARRyan Fitzgerald 48-yard FG Game winner2023

Fantasy Points: Buccaneers vs Panthers, Week 16 2025

Fantasy leaders

  1. Tetairoa McMillanCARWR19.3 PTSWR14
  2. Bryce YoungCARQB17.6 PTSQB15
  3. Mike EvansTBWR14.1 PTSWR23
  4. Baker MayfieldTBQB13.7 PTSQB20

Player Stats

Quarterbacks

Quarterback statistics
PlayerFPTSFINCMP/ATTPass YDSTDINTRush ATTRush YDSRush TDRateStart/Sit
Bryce YoungCARQB17.6QB1521/32191204200102.5Start/Sit →
Baker MayfieldTBQB13.7QB2018/2614511449079.8Start/Sit →

WRs, RBs, & TEs

Receiver, running back and tight end statistics
PlayerFPTSFINPOSRush ATTRush YDSRush TDTGTRECRec YDSRec TDStart/Sit
Tetairoa McMillanCARWR19.3WR14WR———106731Start/Sit →
Mike EvansTBWR14.1WR23WR———95311Start/Sit →
Ja'Tavion SandersCARTE8.9TE16TE———2291Start/Sit →
Rico DowdleCARRB8.3RB37RB929064140Start/Sit →
Rachaad WhiteTBRB8.0RB41RB545022150Start/Sit →
Chris GodwinTBWR8.0WR51WR———65300
Jalen CokerCARWR7.7WR53WR———53470Start/Sit →
Bucky IrvingTBRB7.1RB43RB19710————Start/Sit →
Sean TuckerTBRB6.3RB47RB431————Start/Sit →
Mitchell EvansCARTE5.3TE30TE———33230Start/Sit →
Emeka EgbukaTBWR5.0WR74WR———21400Start/Sit →
Chuba HubbardCARRB4.4RB54RB62701170Start/Sit →
Jalen McMillanTBWR3.6WR86WR11032150Start/Sit →
Cade OttonTBTE3.5TE40TE———22150Start/Sit →
Jimmy HornCARWR2.5WR94WR1250————
Xavier LegetteCARWR2.2WR97WR———31120Start/Sit →
Tommy TrembleCARTE1.6TE55TE———1160Start/Sit →
Tez JohnsonTBWR0.9WR116WR———11-10Start/Sit →

Fantasy Usage

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Snap Share

  1. Cade OttonTE60 snaps94%
  2. Mike EvansWR42 snaps66%
  3. Chris GodwinWR41 snaps64%
  4. Bucky IrvingRB40 snaps63%
  5. Emeka EgbukaWR36 snaps56%

Target Share25 targets

  1. Mike Evans36%, 9 targets
  2. Chris Godwin24%, 6 targets
  3. Jalen McMillan12%, 3 targets
  4. Cade Otton8%, 2 targets
  5. Rachaad White8%, 2 targets
  6. Other12%, 3 targets

Carry Share33 carries

  1. Bucky Irving58%, 19 carries
  2. Rachaad White15%, 5 carries
  3. Baker Mayfield12%, 4 carries
  4. Sean Tucker12%, 4 carries
  5. Jalen McMillan3%, 1 carries

Carolina Panthers

Snap Share

  1. Tetairoa McMillanWR47 snaps87%
  2. Jalen CokerWR44 snaps81%
  3. Xavier LegetteWR35 snaps65%
  4. Rico DowdleRB31 snaps57%
  5. Ja'Tavion SandersTE31 snaps57%

Target Share31 targets

  1. Tetairoa McMillan32%, 10 targets
  2. Rico Dowdle19%, 6 targets
  3. Jalen Coker16%, 5 targets
  4. Xavier Legette10%, 3 targets
  5. Mitchell Evans10%, 3 targets
  6. Other13%, 4 targets

Carry Share20 carries

  1. Rico Dowdle45%, 9 carries
  2. Chuba Hubbard30%, 6 carries
  3. Bryce Young20%, 4 carries
  4. Jimmy Horn5%, 1 carries
View full usage tableHide full usage table
Offensive snaps and share for the skill positions
PlayerSNAPSSNAP %TGTTGT %CAR
Cade OttonTBTE6094%28%0
Tetairoa McMillanCARWR4787%1032%0
Jalen CokerCARWR4481%516%0
Mike EvansTBWR4266%936%0
Xavier LegetteCARWR3565%310%0
Chris GodwinTBWR4164%624%0
Bucky IrvingTBRB4063%00%19
Rico DowdleCARRB3157%619%9
Ja'Tavion SandersCARTE3157%26%0
Emeka EgbukaTBWR3656%28%0
Jalen McMillanTBWR3453%312%1
Tommy TrembleCARTE2343%13%0
Chuba HubbardCARRB2241%13%6
Rachaad WhiteTBRB2539%28%5
Mitchell EvansCARTE1630%310%0
Tez JohnsonTBWR1625%14%0
Jimmy HornCARWR1222%00%1
Payne DurhamTBTE1422%00%0
Brycen TremayneCARWR815%00%0
Sean TuckerTBRB58%00%4
Trevor EtienneCARRB12%00%0
Kameron JohnsonTBWR12%00%0

Fantasy Points vs Expected

Expected points (xFP) are what a player's pass attempts, carries and targets are worth at the league's average rates; the difference is what the player made of them.

Usage and expected fantasy points
PlayerPTSxFPvs xFPSnap%UsageRte%Pass attCarCar%TgtTgt%
Tetairoa McMillanCAR · WR19.317.0+2.387%32% tgt—000%1032%
Bryce YoungCAR · QB17.616.8+0.8100%32 att—32420%00%
Rico DowdleCAR · RB8.316.0−7.757%45% car—0945%619%
Mike EvansTB · WR14.115.3−1.266%36% tgt—000%936%
Baker MayfieldTB · QB13.714.1−0.4100%26 att—26412%00%
Bucky IrvingTB · RB7.112.3−5.263%58% car—01958%00%
Chris Godwin Jr.TB · WR8.010.2−2.264%24% tgt—000%624%
Jalen CokerCAR · WR7.78.5−0.881%16% tgt—000%516%
Rachaad WhiteTB · RB8.06.6+1.439%15% car—0515%28%
Jalen McMillanTB · WR3.65.8−2.253%12% tgt—013%312%
Chuba HubbardCAR · RB4.45.6−1.241%30% car—0630%13%
Mitchell EvansCAR · TE5.35.1+0.230%10% tgt—000%310%
Xavier LegetteCAR · WR2.25.1−2.965%10% tgt—000%310%
Cade OttonTB · TE3.53.4+0.194%8% tgt—000%28%
Emeka EgbukaTB · WR5.03.4+1.656%8% tgt—000%28%
Ja'Tavion SandersCAR · TE8.93.4+5.557%6% tgt—000%26%
Sean TuckerTB · RB6.32.6+3.78%12% car—0412%00%
Tez JohnsonTB · WR0.91.7−0.825%4% tgt—000%14%
Tommy TrembleCAR · TE1.61.7−0.143%3% tgt—000%13%
Jimmy Horn Jr.CAR · WR2.50.6+1.922%5% car—015%00%

Team totals: Buccaneers 25 targets and 33 carries; Panthers 31 targets and 20 carries. Shares are from the box score. Snap counts are from the weekly player logs (Sleeper), and include plays wiped out by penalties. Route counts, air yards and red-zone touches appear when the tracking feed is connected. League-average rates from the 2025 season: 1.70 PPR points per target (67% catch rate), 0.65 per carry and 0.44 per pass attempt. They don't adjust for field position or target depth.

Fantasy Verdicts

Baker Mayfield

TB · QB · 13.7 pts on 14.1 expected

18 of 26 passing for 145 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception; 4 carries for 49 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 14.1 expected.

Start/Sit: Baker Mayfield →

Bryce Young

CAR · QB · 17.6 pts on 16.8 expected

21 of 32 passing for 191 yards, 2 touchdowns; 4 carries for 20 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 16.8 expected.

Start/Sit: Bryce Young →

Mike Evans Volume, no payoff

TB · WR · 14.1 pts on 15.3 expected

9 targets (36% of the team's), 5 catches for 31 yards and 1 touchdown.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 15.3 expected.

Start/Sit: Mike Evans →

Bucky Irving Unlucky

TB · RB · 7.1 pts on 12.3 expected

19 carries (58% of the team's) for 71 yards.

Verdict: The role was there, worth 12.3 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.

Start/Sit: Bucky Irving →

Tetairoa McMillan Strong role

CAR · WR · 19.3 pts on 17.0 expected

10 targets (32% of the team's), 6 catches for 73 yards and 1 touchdown.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 17.0 expected.

Start/Sit: Tetairoa McMillan →

Rico Dowdle Unlucky

CAR · RB · 8.3 pts on 16.0 expected

6 targets (19% of the team's), 4 catches for 14 yards; 9 carries (45% of the team's) for 29 yards.

Verdict: The role was there, worth 16.0 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.

Start/Sit: Rico Dowdle →

Ja'Tavion Sanders Ran hot

CAR · TE · 8.9 pts on 3.4 expected

2 targets (6% of the team's), 2 catches for 9 yards and 1 touchdown.

Verdict: The opportunities were worth 3.4 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.

Start/Sit: Ja'Tavion Sanders →

Emeka Egbuka

TB · WR · 5.0 pts on 3.4 expected

2 targets (8% of the team's), 1 catch for 40 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 3.4 expected.

Start/Sit: Emeka Egbuka →

Stock Up, Stock Down

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Stock down: Emeka Egbuka played 56% of the snaps, down from a 82% season average.
  • Stock down: Tez Johnson played 25% of the snaps, down from a 54% season average.

Carolina Panthers

  • Stock up: Jalen Coker played 81% of the snaps, up from a 65% season average.
  • Stock down: Tommy Tremble played 43% of the snaps, down from a 58% season average.

Fantasy Matchups

Fantasy points allowed per game by position, 2025 through Week 18.

Fantasy points allowed per game by position, Buccaneers defense and Panthers defense
Points allowed toBuccaneers DPanthers D
QBs20.214.7
RBs20.623.5
WRs30.427.1
TEs15.813.7

Regular season, summed from each game's box score and scored with this page's rules.

How the Game Swung

Carolina opened at 41% win probability, fell as low as 19%, then rallied to win.

Panthers win probability

Panthers win probability by game minutePanthers started at 41%, stood at 56% at halftime and finished at 100%, across 9 scoring plays.Q1Q2Q3Q4100%50%0%

Key Swings

  1. −22Mayfield → Evans, 1-yd TD52% → 30%Q1 4:01
  2. +28Young → McMillan, 22-yd TD28% → 56%Q2 0:07
  3. −33Tucker 1-yd TD run59% → 27%Q3 6:41
  4. +39Young → Sanders, 6-yd TD24% → 63%Q3 0:08
  5. +38Fitzgerald 48-yd FG48% → 86%Q4 2:20

Swing in Panthers win probability, in points

Play Calling and Possessions

Play calling, Buccaneers vs Panthers
Tampa Bay BuccaneersMeasureCarolina Panthers
61Plays54
46%Pass rate63%
4.5Yds / dropback5.1
5.1Yds / carry5.0
8/14Third downs6/12

Efficiency edge Carolina ran 7 fewer plays but gained 0.6 more yards per dropback.

  • Top targets
  • TB Evans 36% · Godwin 24% · McMillan 12%
  • CAR McMillan 32% · Dowdle 19% · Coker 16%

Possession Results

How each possession ended, Buccaneers vs Panthers
ResultTBCAR
Touchdowns22
Field goals23
Punts33
Turnovers10

CAR turnover edge: +1

  • The Panthers opened the scoring on their first possession, a 9-play, 56-yard drive that ended in a field goal.
All 18 possessions, drive by drive
Drive chart
TeamStartPlaysYardsTimeResult
CARQ1 15:009564:30Field goal
TBQ1 10:3010536:29Touchdown
CARQ1 4:01663:40Punt
TBQ1 0:2114857:12Field goal
CARQ2 8:09380:46Punt
TBQ2 7:233-122:58Punt
CARQ2 4:256162:19Field goal
TBQ2 2:063-21:00Punt
CARQ2 1:068630:59Touchdown
TBQ2 0:071-10:07End of half
TBQ3 15:0014668:19Touchdown
CARQ3 6:4111656:33Touchdown
TBQ3 0:086113:44Field goal
CARQ4 11:24693:29Punt
TBQ4 7:555323:09Punt
CARQ4 4:467432:26Field goal
TBQ4 2:207481:38Interception
CARQ4 0:421-10:42End of game
About these numbers

Possessions that ended with the clock running out at the half or the end of the game aren't counted.

Personnel groupings, average depth of target and pass rate over expected appear when the tracking feed is connected.

Buccaneers vs Panthers Head-to-Head

The Buccaneers and Panthers first met in 1995 and have played 51 times since. They have been NFC South rivals since 2002.

All-time series
26–25Panthers lead, 51 meetings since 1995
Postseason
0No playoff meetings
Largest Buccaneers win
48–142024
Largest Panthers win
48–162011

Since 2021

8–2 Buccaneers lead

10 meetings since the 2021 season, regular season and playoffs.

Oldest to newest. B = Buccaneers win, P = Panthers win, outlined = this game.

2026 Meetings

  • Week 7 Buccaneers at Panthers Upcoming
  • Week 12 Panthers at Buccaneers Upcoming

Recent Meetings

Season to Date (Through Week 18)

The 2025 regular season, from each game's box score.

Season to date, Buccaneers vs Panthers
BuccaneersStatPanthers
8-9Record8-9
22.4Points per game18.3
320.4Yards per game295.6
5.1Yards per play5.0
24.2Points allowed per game22.4
337.2Yards allowed per game327.2

Buccaneers vs Panthers Odds and Results

How this game finished against the betting lines.

Spread
TB −3Buccaneers failed to cover by 6
Total
44.5Under: 43 points scored (by 1.5)

Expected vs Actual Scoring

Implied team totals against the actual score
TeamImpliedActualDifference
Buccaneers23.820−3.8
Panthers20.823+2.3

The Panthers beat their implied total and the Buccaneers fell short of theirs; the Fantasy tab has the player lines behind it.

Betting Trends

Last 5 meetings: Buccaneers 3–2 ATS, unders 3–2.

Each team's 2025 season through this game. Over/under is overs first.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Against the spread
0–4
Over/under
2–2
ATS as favorite
0–4
ATS on the road
0–1

Carolina Panthers

Against the spread
2–2
Over/under
1–3
ATS as favorite
0–1
ATS as underdog
2–1
ATS at home
2–0

Lines: ESPN's consensus, captured at kickoff. Individual sportsbooks varied.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Betting availability depends on your state.

Buccaneers vs Panthers Fantasy Outlook for 2026

Two meetings are left on the 2026 schedule: Week 7 in Carolina and Week 12 in Tampa Bay. Here's how to decide who to play in your league.

Keep Exploring

2025 Game Logs for Players in This Game

Buccaneers vs Panthers Game FAQ

Who won the 2025 Buccaneers vs Panthers Week 16 game?

The Carolina Panthers beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23–20 in Week 16 of the 2025 season. The game was played at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, on December 21, 2025. See the Panthers' 2025 schedule.

What was the final score of Buccaneers vs Panthers?

The final score was Panthers 23, Buccaneers 20. The Panthers led 13–10 at halftime, and the second half went Buccaneers 10, Panthers 10.

What happened in the Buccaneers vs Panthers game?

Carolina led 13–10 at halftime to win 23–20. Tampa Bay outgained the Panthers 296–275, but the Panthers averaged 5.1 yards per play. Tetairoa McMillan led all players with 6 catches for 73 yards and a touchdown. The Buccaneers committed 1 turnover, the Panthers none.

What was the game-winning score in Buccaneers vs Panthers?

Ryan Fitzgerald's 48-yard field goal with 2:20 left in the fourth quarter gave the Panthers a 23–20 lead they never gave up. It was the final score of the game.

Who scored the most fantasy points in Buccaneers vs Panthers?

Tetairoa McMillan led the game with 19.3 PPR fantasy points, the WR14 of Week 16, on 6 catches for 73 yards and a touchdown. Bryce Young was next with 17.6 (QB15). See Tetairoa McMillan's 2025 game log.

Who led Buccaneers vs Panthers in passing, rushing and receiving?

Bryce Young (CAR) led all passers with 21 of 32 for 191 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bucky Irving (TB) led in rushing with 19 carries for 71 yards. Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) led in receiving with 6 catches for 73 yards and a touchdown.

Who outperformed and underperformed expected fantasy points in Buccaneers vs Panthers?

Ja'Tavion Sanders outperformed his expected fantasy points the most, scoring 8.9 PPR points on 3.4 xFP (+5.5). Rico Dowdle fell furthest short, with 8.3 points on 16.0 xFP (−7.7). A gap either way reflects efficiency and touchdowns in one game; it is not a forecast. For matchups ahead, see fantasy points allowed by position.

Who had the highest expected fantasy points in Buccaneers vs Panthers?

Tetairoa McMillan had the most fantasy opportunity in the game, worth 17.0 expected PPR points (xFP) at league-average rates, and scored 19.3. Expected points measure the volume of a player's pass attempts, carries and targets, not how well he used them.

How did the Panthers come back to beat the Buccaneers?

The Panthers' chances of winning fell as low as 19% in the first half. Bryce Young's 6-yard touchdown pass to Ja'Tavion Sanders in the third quarter was the biggest swing of the game. Ryan Fitzgerald's 48-yard field goal then put them ahead for good.

Which team won the turnover battle in Buccaneers vs Panthers?

The Panthers won the turnover battle 1–0: the Buccaneers gave the ball away 1 time and the Panthers not at all. The Panthers won the game.

What is the all-time Buccaneers vs Panthers record?

The Panthers lead the all-time series 26–25 across 51 meetings since 1995.

When did the Buccaneers and Panthers last play before this game?

Before Week 16 of 2025, they last met in the 2024 season on December 29, 2024, when the Buccaneers beat the Panthers 48–14.

What was the closing spread for Buccaneers vs Panthers?

The consensus closing spread at kickoff was Buccaneers −3, making the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-point favorites, with a closing total of 44.5. That implied about 23.8 points for the Buccaneers and 20.8 for the Panthers.

Did Buccaneers vs Panthers go over or under the total?

The game went under. The consensus closing total was 44.5, and the teams combined for 43 points, 1.5 under the number.

Who covered the spread in Buccaneers vs Panthers?

The Panthers covered as 3-point underdogs against the closing line of Buccaneers −3. The final margin was 3 points.