AFC South · 2026 Season
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts fantasy football hub
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts Usage & Opportunity Report 2026
Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday
Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.
- Pass rate over expected−4.6%24thRuns more than game situations call for — a cap on the pass-catchers' volume and a floor under Taylor
- Red-zone pass rate54%20thBalanced inside the 20 — Taylor leads the team with 13 red-zone touches
- Neutral pace34.0s25th fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations — a slow offense shrinks the pie
- Plays per game62.312thOffensive plays a game — league-average volume, so shares decide it
- Team xFP / game83.520thTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates
The Target Tree
All 98 Colts pass attempts through Week 4
- Josh Downs 24.5%
- Tyler Warren 22.4%
- Keenan Allen 20.4%
- Jonathan Taylor 11.2%
- Alec Pierce 7.1%
- Treadwell/Ogletree/McGowan 8.2%
- Everyone else 2.0%
- No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 4.1%
The Backfield Split
Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.
- Jonathan Taylor 91.7%
- Seth McGowan 8.3%
Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.
- 29.3Taylor weighted opps/game — RB5 in the NFL
- 17Taylor high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
- 2.7McGowan weighted opps/game
- +3.8Taylor wOpp/g vs. last season — role grew, not just efficiency
Why Taylor's floor holds in PPR: He keeps 89% of the backs' third-down work as well as the early downs, so his catches don't depend on game script — a 51-catch pace. Trailing by 7+, he still gets 96% of the backs' work — no one takes the hurry-up snaps from him.
The McGowan math if Taylor misses time: McGowan is next in line by weighted opportunities. A Taylor absence projects McGowan to ~100% of weighted opportunities — about 32.0 a game, a top-12 weekly RB by volume — worth a bench spot in deeper leagues.
Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap
- 3.26 attLeft end
- 5.47 attLeft tackle
- 3.332 attMiddle
- 3.719 attRight tackle
- 4.414 attRight end
Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.
The left side is the run game's engine: 5.4 yards per carry behind left tackle — 17% of all designed runs go that way. Interior volume (32 attempts) does the clock work at 3.3; the left edge does the damage. When the line's left side sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.
Where Jones Attacks
Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4
- 3%0.0 YPADeep left
- 2%24.0 YPADeep middle
- 2%0.0 YPADeep right
Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards
- 30%6.2 YPAShort left
- 24%8.2 YPAShort middle
- 39%4.9 YPAShort right
The short middle is the efficiency engine (8.2 YPA). Jones keeps 93% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep middle his most explosive zone (24 YPA on 2 attempts). Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.
| Profile | Player | Opportunity (WOPR) | Target share | Snap share | RZ touches | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan TaylorRB1, 91% of RB touchesRB5 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 91% | 11.2%−4.6 vs W1 | 89%steady | 135 · 5 · 3 — leads team | Set & forget | |
The locked-in workhorse. A 93% share of the backs' red-zone work is the RB stat that tracks fantasy points best, and 6 green-zone carries put him at the goal line. Production is running +1.2 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Josh DownsWR1WR10 in target share, NFL | 0.67elite | 24.5%+17.7 vs W1 | 79%−21 vs W1 | 4 ▲0 · 2 · 2 | Set & forget | |
The alpha profile, fully formed. A 43.6% air-yards share clears the 30% alpha threshold, a 29.2% first-read share says the offense is designed through him, and a 11.7-yard aDOT sits in the sweet spot — deep enough for ceiling, not so deep it gets volatile. He's −2.8 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Tyler WarrenTE1TE4 in target share, NFL | 0.38strong for TE | 22.4%+11.7 vs W1 | 92%steady | 31 · 2 · 0 | Set & forget | |
The role is arriving before the box score does. His target share has run 16% → 23% → 28% over the last 3 games, with a 21.5% first-read share saying the plays are being designed for him. Volume that is growing this fast gets repriced the week it scores. Production is running +1.1 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| Keenan AllenWR2WR31 in target share, NFL | 0.44flex range | 20.4%+5.6 vs W1 | 64%+6 vs W1 | 3 ▲1 · 0 · 2 | Set & forget | |
The role is arriving before the box score does. His target share has run 19% → 16% → 25% over the last 3 games, with a 26.2% first-read share saying the plays are being designed for him. Volume that is growing this fast gets repriced the week it scores. Production is running −1.2 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Daniel JonesQB1QB28 in xFP/game, NFL | —every dropback | —the passer | 100%steady | 2 ▲0 · 1 · 1 | Volatile | |
A pocket passer's profile. 0 green-zone carries and a 3.7% scramble rate: his points have to come through the air, so his weekly range follows the pass volume (QB28 in expected points). He's −3.4 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs. | ||||||
How to read this table
- Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
- Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
- Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
- Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
- Stash the role behind the role
- WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
- + button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league
Buy low
Josh Downs
The volume is there and the points aren't — yet. 13.7 expected points a game against 10.9 actual is the gap that closes on its own. Trade for him before it does.
- 13.7xFP per game
- −2.8points vs. expected per game
Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser like Downs gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.
Explore StatChasers
- Fantasy Football ToolsThe #1 ranked fantasy football toolset.Open
- Advanced Player StatsDeeper numbers on every player in the league.Open
- Strength of ScheduleMatchup difficulty by fantasy position, including the playoff weeks.Open
- Fantasy Points AllowedHow Indianapolis's defense performs against QB, RB, WR and TE.Open
Common questions
Who leads the Indianapolis Colts in target share?
Josh Downs leads the Indianapolis Colts with a 24.5% target share through Week 4, up 17.7 points since Week 1. Tyler Warren is second at 22.4%.