NFC West · 2026 Season
San Francisco 49ers
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San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers Usage & Opportunity Report 2026
Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday
Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.
- Pass rate over expected+4.6%1stThrows more than game situations call for — the volume Kittle and Evans live on
- Red-zone pass rate60%9thThrows inside the 20 — Evans's 2 end-zone targets lead the team
- Neutral pace33.3s20th fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations
- Plays per game53.331stOffensive plays a game — fewer snaps to go around, so shares matter more
- Team xFP / game90.015thTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates
The Target Tree
All 83 49ers pass attempts through Week 4
- Christian McCaffrey 20.5%
- George Kittle 19.3%
- Mike Evans 19.3%
- Deebo Samuel 13.3%
- Demarcus Robinson 7.2%
- Juszczyk/Farrell/Black 10.8%
- Everyone else 6.0%
- No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 2.4%
The Backfield Split
Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.
- Christian McCaffrey 67.6%
- Kaelon Black 28.4%
- Jordan James 3.9%
Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.
- 23.0McCaffrey weighted opps/game — RB13 in the NFL
- 23McCaffrey high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
- 9.7Black weighted opps/game
- −10.5McCaffrey wOpp/g vs. last season — a smaller role than last season
Why McCaffrey's floor holds in PPR: He keeps 80% of the backs' third-down work as well as the early downs, so his catches don't depend on game script — a 74-catch pace. No one on this depth chart takes the hurry-up snaps from him.
The Black math if McCaffrey misses time: Black backs up the early-down and red-zone roles (the valuable ones). A McCaffrey absence projects Black to ~82% of weighted opportunities — about 30.0 a game, a top-12 weekly RB by volume — and why he's a STASH, not a cut.
Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap
- 4.98 attLeft end
- 3.37 attLeft tackle
- 4.344 attMiddle
- 5.26 attRight tackle
- 6.56 attRight end
Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.
The right side is the run game's engine: 6.5 yards per carry off right end and 5.2 behind right tackle — 17% of all designed runs go that way. Interior volume (44 attempts) does the clock work at 4.3; the right edge does the damage. When the line's right side sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.
Where Purdy Attacks
Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4
- 1%0.0 YPADeep left
- 1%39.0 YPADeep middle
- 4%7.7 YPADeep right
Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards
- 43%9.5 YPAShort left
- 24%11.5 YPAShort middle
- 27%7.0 YPAShort right
The short middle is the efficiency engine (11.5 YPA). Purdy keeps 94% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep right his most explosive zone (7.7 YPA on 3 attempts). Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.
| Profile | Player | Opportunity (WOPR) | Target share | Snap share | RZ touches | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB1, 60% of RB touchesRB13 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 60% | 20.5%−5.0 vs W1 | 63%+28 vs W1 | 11 ▲2 · 6 · 3 — leads team | Starter | |
A shared backfield. 63% of the weighted opportunities means another back takes a real cut every week, so his floor rises and falls with game script. Production is running −0.6 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| George KittleTE1TE8 in target share, NFL | 0.45elite for TE | 19.3%+11.2 vs W1 | 59%+39 vs W1 | 5 ▲1 · 2 · 2 | Starter | |
The role is arriving before the box score does. His target share has run 15% → 18% → 26% over the last 3 games, with a 24.5% first-read share saying the plays are being designed for him. Volume that is growing this fast gets repriced the week it scores. He's scoring +3.7 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 12.1 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| Mike EvansWR1WR33 in target share, NFL | 0.49strong — elite at 0.60 | 19.3%steady | 56%−42 vs W1 | 22 · 0 · 0 | Starter | |
A starter's share without the alpha tag. A 19.3% target share and 10.5 expected points a game, with a 26.5% first-read share; a 28.1% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. He's scoring +4.1 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 10.5 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Deebo SamuelWR2WR60 in target share, NFL | 0.24below startable | 13.3%−20.6 vs W1 | 58%+34 vs W1 | 33 · 0 · 0 | Volatile | |
The ceiling problem in two numbers: a 5.8% air-yards share and a 3.3 aDOT. His targets travel nowhere, so even a healthy target share converts to modest yardage — and the share itself is the one drifting down. Production is running +0.2 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Kaelon BlackRB2 · handcuff, 33% of RB touchesRB46 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 33% | 2.4%steady | 31%−28 vs W1 | 4 ▲0 · 2 · 2 | Stash | |
Contingent value, quantified. The 33% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if McCaffrey misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Brock PurdyQB1QB9 in xFP/game, NFL | —every dropback | —the passer | 95%steady | 10 · 1 · 0 | Starter | |
A pocket passer's profile. 1 green-zone carry and a 6.7% scramble rate: his points have to come through the air, so his weekly range follows the pass volume (QB9 in expected points). He's scoring +6.6 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 19.2 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs. | ||||||
How to read this table
- Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
- Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
- Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
- Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
- Stash the role behind the role
- WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
- + button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league
Buy low
George Kittle
The role is arriving before the box score does. Trade for him this week — not after the two-touchdown game makes it obvious to your league.
- +39snap share pts since W1
- +11.2target share pts since W1
Sell high
Deebo Samuel
Season totals still read like a starter, but the share is drifting the wrong way three straight weeks. Name value currently exceeds trajectory.
- −20.6target share pts since W1
- 0.0%W3 share — season low
Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser like Kittle gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.
Explore StatChasers
- Fantasy Football ToolsThe #1 ranked fantasy football toolset.Open
- Advanced Player StatsDeeper numbers on every player in the league.Open
- Strength of ScheduleMatchup difficulty by fantasy position, including the playoff weeks.Open
- Fantasy Points AllowedHow San Francisco's defense performs against QB, RB, WR and TE.Open
Common questions
Who leads the San Francisco 49ers in target share?
Christian McCaffrey leads the San Francisco 49ers with a 20.5% target share through Week 4, down 5.0 points since Week 1. George Kittle is second at 19.3%.