NFC North · 2026 Season
Green Bay Packers
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Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers Usage & Opportunity Report 2026
Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday
Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.
- Pass rate over expected+2.5%6thThrows about as much as situations call for — the target tree, not the play-calling, decides who eats
- Red-zone pass rate62%8thThrows inside the 20 — Watson's 4 end-zone targets lead the team
- Neutral pace32.1s8th fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations — a fast offense means more snaps for every starter
- Plays per game60.015thOffensive plays a game — league-average volume, so shares decide it
- Team xFP / game95.09thTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates
The Target Tree
All 124 Packers pass attempts through Week 4
- Matthew Golden 24.2%
- Christian Watson 23.4%
- Tucker Kraft 13.7%
- Skyy Moore 8.9%
- Jayden Reed 6.5%
- Lloyd/Smith/Brooks 12.9%
- Everyone else 7.3%
- No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 3.2%
The Backfield Split
Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.
- MarShawn Lloyd 48.6%
- Chris Brooks 26.4%
- Kaleb Johnson 25.0%
Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.
- 11.7Lloyd weighted opps/game — RB42 in the NFL
- 9Lloyd high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
- 6.3Brooks weighted opps/game
Why Lloyd's floor holds in PPR: He keeps 46% of the backfield's targets as well as the early downs, so his catches don't depend on game script — a 23-catch pace. Trailing by 7+, he still gets 33% of the backs' work — no one takes the hurry-up snaps from him.
The Brooks math if Lloyd misses time: Brooks backs up the early-down and red-zone roles (the valuable ones). A Lloyd absence projects Brooks to ~47% of weighted opportunities — about 12.7 a game, flex volume at best.
Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap
- 4.97 attLeft end
- 3.89 attLeft tackle
- 2.824 attMiddle
- 2.45 attRight tackle
- 0.02 attRight end
Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.
The left side is the run game's engine: 4.9 yards per carry off left end and 3.8 behind left tackle — 34% of all designed runs go that way. Interior volume (24 attempts) does the clock work at 2.8; the left edge does the damage. When the line's left side sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.
Where Love Attacks
Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4
- 3%15.5 YPADeep left
- 2%21.0 YPADeep middle
- 8%4.5 YPADeep right · Golden
Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards
- 28%6.8 YPAShort left
- 23%8.4 YPAShort middle
- 35%4.8 YPAShort right
The short middle is the efficiency engine (8.4 YPA). Love keeps 87% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep middle his most explosive zone (21 YPA on 2 attempts). Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.
| Profile | Player | Opportunity (WOPR) | Target share | Snap share | RZ touches | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian WatsonWR2WR18 in target share, NFL | 0.55strong — elite at 0.60 | 23.4%steady | 82%steady | 6 ▲1 · 2 · 3 | Set & forget | |
Volume you can set in the lineup. A 23.4% target share and 18.5 expected points a game, with a 25.8% first-read share; a 28.2% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. He's scoring +4.6 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 18.5 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Matthew GoldenWR1WR12 in target share, NFL | 0.63elite | 24.2%−6.0 vs W1 | 83%steady | 43 · 0 · 1 | Set & forget | |
The alpha profile, fully formed. A 38.6% air-yards share clears the 30% alpha threshold, a 26.9% first-read share says the offense is designed through him, and a 13.9-yard aDOT keeps his ceiling high and his floor jumpy. Production is running −1.3 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Tucker KraftTE1TE18 in target share, NFL | 0.29streamer range | 13.7%steady | 79%+10 vs W1 | 1 ▲0 · 0 · 1 | Volatile | |
A starter's share without the alpha tag. A 13.7% target share and 8.8 expected points a game, with a 12.9% first-read share; a 11.9% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. He's −2.3 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| MarShawn LloydRB1, 51% of RB touchesRB42 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 51% | 4.8%+3.3 vs W1 | 32%−21 vs W1 | 8 ▲2 · 3 · 3 — leads team | Flex | |
A shared backfield. 49% of the weighted opportunities means another back takes a real cut every week, so his floor rises and falls with game script. He's −2.7 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Skyy MooreWR3WR80 in target share, NFL | 0.18below startable | 8.9%+10.8 vs W1 | 31%+46 vs W1 | 3 ▲1 · 0 · 2 | Volatile | |
The role is arriving before the box score does. His target share has run 2% → 10% → 13% over the last 3 games. Volume that is growing this fast gets repriced the week it scores. He's −3.0 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Kaleb JohnsonRB3 · handcuff, 25% of RB touchesRB51 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 25% | 2.4%+5.7 vs W2 | 21%+9 vs W2 | 0– · 0 · 0 | Stash | |
Contingent value, quantified. The 25% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Lloyd misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Chris BrooksRB2 · handcuff, 25% of RB touchesRB62 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 25% | 3.2%steady | 48%−15 vs W1 | 41 · 3 · 0 | Stash | |
Contingent value, quantified. The 25% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Lloyd misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Jordan LoveQB1QB13 in xFP/game, NFL | —every dropback | —the passer | 100%steady | 11 · 0 · 0 | Starter | |
A pocket passer's profile. 0 green-zone carries and a 0% scramble rate: his points have to come through the air, so his weekly range follows the pass volume (QB13 in expected points). Production is running right at expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs. | ||||||
How to read this table
- Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
- Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
- Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
- Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
- Stash the role behind the role
- WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
- + button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league
Buy low
Skyy Moore
The role is arriving before the box score does. Trade for him this week — not after the two-touchdown game makes it obvious to your league.
- +46snap share pts since W1
- +10.8target share pts since W1
Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser like Moore gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.
Explore StatChasers
- Fantasy Football ToolsThe #1 ranked fantasy football toolset.Open
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- Fantasy Points AllowedHow Green Bay's defense performs against QB, RB, WR and TE.Open
Common questions
Who leads the Green Bay Packers in target share?
Matthew Golden leads the Green Bay Packers with a 24.2% target share through Week 4, down 6.0 points since Week 1. Christian Watson is second at 23.4%.