AFC North · 2026 Season

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers fantasy football hub

DivisionAFC North
Record2-2
Standing4th in AFC North4th
Head CoachMike McCarthy
ByeWeek 9W9

Last updated Oct 2, 9:03 AM ET

Pittsburgh Steelers

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Pittsburgh Steelers Usage & Opportunity Report 2026

Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday

Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.

Pass rate over expected+3.3%5thThrows more than game situations call for — the volume Metcalf and Wilson live on
Red-zone pass rate72%4thThrows inside the 20 — Washington's 3 end-zone targets lead the team
Neutral pace33.9s24th fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations — a slow offense shrinks the pie
Plays per game62.013thOffensive plays a game — league-average volume, so shares decide it
Team xFP / game87.316thTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates

The Target Tree

All 154 Steelers pass attempts through Week 4

21.4%Metcalf15.6%Wilson13.0%Warren12.3%Freiermuth8.4%19.5%Pittman/Bernard/Dowdle6.5%

DK Metcalf 21.4%
Roman Wilson 15.6%
Jaylen Warren 13.0%
Pat Freiermuth 12.3%
Darnell Washington 8.4%
Pittman/Bernard/Dowdle 19.5%
Everyone else 3.2%
No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 6.5%

The Backfield Split

Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.

73.1%Warren22.3%Dowdle

Jaylen Warren 73.1%
Rico Dowdle 22.3%
Travis Homer 3.8%
Other backs 0.8%

SituationWarrenDowdleHomer

Early downs95 opps73%22%4%

Third down8 opps75%13%13%

Red zone (in-20)12 opps58%8%25%

Inside the 103 opps33%0%33%

Two-minute drill2 opps100%0%0%

Trailing by 7+35 opps74%20%6%

Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.

23.8Warren weighted opps/game — RB10 in the NFL
20Warren high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
14.5Dowdle weighted opps/game
+5.0Warren wOpp/g vs. last season — role grew, not just efficiency

Why Warren's floor holds in PPR: He keeps 75% of the backs' third-down work as well as the early downs, so his catches don't depend on game script — a 55-catch pace. Trailing by 7+, he still gets 74% of the backs' work — no one takes the hurry-up snaps from him.

The Dowdle math if Warren misses time: Dowdle backs up the early-down role (the valuable ones). A Warren absence projects Dowdle to ~77% of weighted opportunities — about 31.4 a game, a top-12 weekly RB by volume — and why he's a STASH, not a cut.

Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap

7.514 attLeft end
2.38 attLeft tackle
4.243 attMiddle
4.86 attRight tackle
4.47 attRight end

Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.

The left side is the run game's engine: 7.5 yards per carry off left end — 28% of all designed runs go that way, and two of Warren's three longest runs came off the left side. Interior volume (43 attempts) does the clock work at 4.2; the left edge does the damage. When the line's left side sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.

Where Rodgers Attacks

Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4

8%5.1 YPADeep left · Metcalf
2%23.3 YPADeep middle
8%5.1 YPADeep right · Metcalf

Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards

27%5.3 YPAShort left
21%8.3 YPAShort middle
32%6.0 YPAShort right

The short middle is the efficiency engine (8.3 YPA). Rodgers keeps 81% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep middle his most explosive zone (23.3 YPA on 3 attempts). Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.

Profile	Player	Opportunity (WOPR)	Target share	Snap share	RZ touches	Read
	Jaylen WarrenRB1, 73% of RB touchesRB10 in weighted opps/game, NFL	—touch share 73%	13.0%steady	74%+60 vs W1	70 · 3 · 2 — leads team	Set & forget
Touch share (RB room)73% Red-zone share (RB room)58% Green-zone carries (in-10)0 Target share13.0% Weighted opps / game23.8 xFP / game14.5 FPOE / game−0.5 Yards after contact / att3.1 The locked-in workhorse. A 58% share of the backs' red-zone work is the RB stat that tracks fantasy points best, and 0 green-zone carries put him at the goal line. Production is running −0.5 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs.
	DK MetcalfWR1WR28 in target share, NFL	0.56strong — elite at 0.60	21.4%steady	96%steady	10 · 1 · 0	Set & forget
First-read share29.2% Air-yards share34.3% aDOT15.0 End-zone targets2 xFP / game13.4 FPOE / game−2.6 The alpha profile, fully formed. A 34.3% air-yards share clears the 30% alpha threshold, a 29.2% first-read share says the offense is designed through him, and a 15-yard aDOT keeps his ceiling high and his floor jumpy. He's −2.6 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs.
	Roman WilsonWR2WR52 in target share, NFL	0.41flex range	15.6%steady	51%−24 vs W1	2 ▲0 · 0 · 2	Flex
First-read share19.4% Air-yards share25.6% aDOT15.3 End-zone targets2 xFP / game9.5 FPOE / game+1.7 A starter's share without the alpha tag. A 15.6% target share and 9.5 expected points a game, with a 19.4% first-read share; a 25.6% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. He's scoring +1.7 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 9.5 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs.
	Pat FreiermuthTE1TE22 in target share, NFL	0.26streamer range	12.3%steady	69%steady	30 · 0 · 1	Volatile
First-read share13.9% Air-yards share10.8% aDOT8.2 End-zone targets2 xFP / game8.3 FPOE / game+1.4 A starter's share without the alpha tag. A 12.3% target share and 8.3 expected points a game, with a 13.9% first-read share; a 10.8% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. Production is running +1.4 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs.
	Darnell WashingtonTE2TE34 in target share, NFL	0.16below startable	8.4%+7.6 vs W1	66%+7 vs W1	2 ▲0 · 0 · 2	Volatile
First-read share8.3% Air-yards share4.6% aDOT5.1 End-zone targets3 xFP / game5.4 FPOE / game+1.3 The role is arriving before the box score does. His target share has run 5% → 12% → 13% over the last 3 games. Volume that is growing this fast gets repriced the week it scores. Production is running +1.3 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs.
	Rico DowdleRB2 · handcuff, 20% of RB touchesRB32 in weighted opps/game, NFL	—touch share 20%	4.5%−7.2 vs W1	21%−32 vs W1	10 · – · –	Stash
Touch share (RB room)20% Red-zone share (RB room)8% Green-zone carries (in-10)0 Target share4.5% Weighted opps / game14.5 xFP / game8.4 FPOE / game−3.1 Yards after contact / att0.7 Contingent value, quantified. The 20% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Warren misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs.
	Aaron RodgersQB1QB21 in xFP/game, NFL	—every dropback	—the passer	99%steady	00 · 0 · 0	Volatile
Green-zone carries (in-10)0 Designed-run rate0.0% Scramble rate1.2% aDOT9.4 xFP / game16.0 FPOE / game−0.2 Sack rate7.8% Team pass rate inside the 1080% A pocket passer's profile. 0 green-zone carries and a 1.2% scramble rate: his points have to come through the air, so his weekly range follows the pass volume (QB21 in expected points). Production is running −0.2 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs.

How to read this table

Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
Stash the role behind the role
WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
+ button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league

Buy low

Darnell Washington

The role is arriving before the box score does. Trade for him this week — not after the two-touchdown game makes it obvious to your league.

+7snap share pts since W1
+7.6target share pts since W1

Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser like Washington gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.

Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.

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Common questions

Who leads the Pittsburgh Steelers in target share?

DK Metcalf leads the Pittsburgh Steelers with a 21.4% target share through Week 4, holding steady since Week 1. Roman Wilson is second at 15.6%.

See the full usage report

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Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers Usage & Opportunity Report 2026

The Target Tree

The Backfield Split

Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap

Where Rodgers Attacks

Darnell Washington

Explore StatChasers

Common questions

Who leads the Pittsburgh Steelers in target share?