New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills, Wild Card 2021
New England Patriots
Away
17
Buffalo Bills
HomeWon, advanced
47
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
| Bills | 14 | 13 | 6 | 14 | 47 |
NE 17BUF 47 Final
Passing leader
38.9PPR pts
21/25, 308 YDS, 5 TD
Top fantasy scorer
28.1PPR pts
7 REC, 77 YDS, 2 TD
Patriots leader
17.1PPR pts
24/38, 232 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
Defensive playmaker
Levi Wallace
1 INT, 5 TKL
Bills 47, Patriots 17: Buffalo controls the 2021 Wild Card from start to finish
Buffalo led 27–3 at halftime and outscored New England 20–14 after the break to win 47–17. The Bills finished with a 482–305 edge in total offense and averaged 8.9 yards per play.
The gap showed up everywhere. The Patriots went 7-for-14 on third down and committed two turnovers, while the Bills finished without a giveaway.
The Bills' run ended in the Divisional Round, a 42–36 loss to the Chiefs.
The two teams meet again in Week 4 of 2026. If you roster anyone from either side, run the start/sit call in Redraft Command and it will weigh your lineup, your opponent and your league scoring, not only the player rankings.
Key advantages
- +3.9 yards/play BUF 8.9 · NE 5.0
- +2 turnover margin BUF 0 turnovers
- +177 total yards BUF 482 · NE 305
Game Highlights
Official NFL highlights · Opens from YouTube
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Why the Bills Won
Buffalo won the efficiency, turnover, third-down, and time of possession battles.
| Patriots | Stat | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Yards per play | 8.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 305 | Total yards | 482 |
| Other team stats | ||
| 61 | Plays | 54 |
| 50% | Third-down conversion | 86% |
| 28:35 | Time of possession | 31:25 |
Scoring Summary
The Bills scored seven touchdowns; the Patriots scored two touchdowns and one field goal.
| Time | Team | Play | NE | BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter | ||||
| 9:45 | BUF | Josh Allen → Dawson Knox, 8-yard TD Takes leadTyler Bass XP | 0 | 7 |
| 0:40 | BUF | Josh Allen → Dawson Knox, 11-yard TD Extends leadTyler Bass XP | 0 | 14 |
| 2nd quarter | ||||
| 7:20 | BUF | Devin Singletary 3-yard TD run Extends leadXP missed | 0 | 20 |
| 1:53 | BUF | Devin Singletary 16-yard TD run Extends leadTyler Bass XP | 0 | 27 |
| 0:01 | NE | Nick Folk 44-yard FG | 3 | 27 |
| 3rd quarter | ||||
| 8:48 | BUF | Josh Allen → Emmanuel Sanders, 34-yard TD Extends leadXP missed | 3 | 33 |
| 4:12 | NE | Mac Jones → Kendrick Bourne, 3-yard TDNick Folk XP | 10 | 33 |
| 4th quarter | ||||
| 13:22 | BUF | Josh Allen → Gabriel Davis, 19-yard TD Extends leadTyler Bass XP | 10 | 40 |
| 8:37 | BUF | Josh Allen → Tommy Doyle, 1-yard TD Extends leadTyler Bass XP | 10 | 47 |
| 1:44 | NE | Mac Jones → Kendrick Bourne, 4-yard TDNick Folk XP | 17 | 47 |
Playoff game: these points don't count in most season-long fantasy leagues.
Fantasy Points vs Expected
Expected points (xFP) are what a player's pass attempts, carries and targets are worth at the league's average rates; the difference is what the player made of them.
- Biggest overperformer+24.1Josh Allen38.9 PTS vs 14.8 xFP
- Biggest underperformer−5.2Jakobi Meyers10.0 PTS vs 15.2 xFP
- Highest expected volume18.0 xFPMac Jones17.1 PTS scored
| Player | PTS | xFP | vs xFP | Snap% | Usage | Rte% | Pass att | Car | Car% | Tgt | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac JonesNE · QB | 17.1 | 18.0 | −0.9 | — | 38 att | — | 38 | 2 | 10% | 0 | 0% |
| Devin SingletaryBUF · RB | 24.4 | 17.0 | +7.4 | — | 55% car | — | 0 | 16 | 55% | 4 | 16% |
| Jakobi MeyersNE · WR | 10.0 | 15.2 | −5.2 | — | 26% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 9 | 26% |
| Josh AllenBUF · QB | 38.9 | 14.8 | +24.1 | — | 25 att | — | 25 | 6 | 21% | 0 | 0% |
| Kendrick BourneNE · WR | 28.1 | 14.1 | +14.0 | — | 23% tgt | — | 0 | 1 | 5% | 8 | 23% |
| Rhamondre StevensonNE · RB | 10.0 | 11.9 | −1.9 | — | 40% car | — | 0 | 8 | 40% | 4 | 11% |
| Brandon BoldenNE · RB | 6.7 | 10.1 | −3.4 | — | 17% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 6 | 17% |
| Dawson KnoxBUF · TE | 25.9 | 8.4 | +17.5 | — | 20% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5 | 20% |
| Damien HarrisNE · RB | 4.7 | 7.5 | −2.8 | — | 45% car | — | 0 | 9 | 45% | 1 | 3% |
| Isaiah McKenzieBUF · WR | 10.4 | 7.0 | +3.4 | — | 12% tgt | — | 0 | 3 | 10% | 3 | 12% |
| Hunter HenryNE · TE | 4.0 | 6.7 | −2.7 | — | 11% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 4 | 11% |
| Stefon DiggsBUF · WR | 9.0 | 6.7 | +2.3 | — | 16% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 4 | 16% |
| Emmanuel SandersBUF · WR | 11.6 | 5.1 | +6.5 | — | 12% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3 | 12% |
| Gabe DavisBUF · WR | 12.1 | 5.1 | +7.0 | — | 12% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3 | 12% |
| Nelson AgholorNE · WR | 2.8 | 3.4 | −0.6 | — | 6% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2 | 6% |
| Mitchell TrubiskyBUF · QB | -0.2 | 1.9 | −2.1 | — | 0 att | — | 0 | 3 | 10% | 0 | 0% |
| Cole BeasleyBUF · WR | 2.9 | 1.7 | +1.2 | — | 4% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 4% |
| Jakob JohnsonNE · RB | 0.0 | 1.7 | −1.7 | — | 3% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 3% |
| Reggie GilliamBUF · RB | 1.4 | 1.7 | −0.3 | — | 4% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 4% |
| Tommy DoyleBUF · — | 7.1 | 1.7 | +5.4 | — | 4% tgt | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 4% |
| Zack MossBUF · RB | 0.0 | 0.6 | −0.6 | — | 3% car | — | 0 | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0% |
Team totals: Patriots 35 targets and 20 carries; Bills 25 targets and 29 carries. Shares are from the box score. Snap counts aren't available for this game. Route counts, air yards and red-zone touches appear when the tracking feed is connected. League-average rates from the 2021 season: 1.68 PPR points per target (67% catch rate), 0.64 per carry and 0.44 per pass attempt. They don't adjust for field position or target depth.
Fantasy Verdicts
Mac Jones
24 of 38 passing for 232 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 interceptions; 2 carries for 18 yards.
Verdict: The points matched the role, 18.0 expected.
Josh Allen Ran hot
21 of 25 passing for 308 yards, 5 touchdowns; 6 carries for 66 yards.
Verdict: The opportunities were worth 14.8 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.
No interceptions after 4 in the previous four games. Best fantasy game of the season.
Jakobi Meyers Unlucky
9 targets (26% of the team's), 6 catches for 40 yards.
Verdict: The role was there, worth 15.2 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.
Kendrick Bourne Ran hot
8 targets (23% of the team's), 7 catches for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns; 1 carry (5% of the team's) for 14 yards.
Verdict: The opportunities were worth 14.1 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.
Best fantasy game of the season.
Devin Singletary Ran hot
4 targets (16% of the team's), 3 catches for 13 yards; 16 carries (55% of the team's) for 81 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Verdict: The opportunities were worth 17.0 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.
A touchdown in 5 of the last 8 games.
Dawson Knox Ran hot
5 targets (20% of the team's), 5 catches for 89 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Verdict: The opportunities were worth 8.4 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.
Best fantasy game of the season.
Emmanuel Sanders Ran hot
3 targets (12% of the team's), 2 catches for 36 yards and 1 touchdown.
Verdict: The opportunities were worth 5.1 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.
Best score since Week 6.
Gabe Davis Ran hot
3 targets (12% of the team's), 2 catches for 41 yards and 1 touchdown.
Verdict: The opportunities were worth 5.1 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.
Fantasy Matchups
Fantasy points allowed per game by position, 2021 through Week 18.
| Points allowed to | Patriots D | Bills D |
|---|---|---|
| QBs | 13.4 | 12.2 |
| RBs | 21.5 | 20.4 |
| WRs | 28.7 | 23.8 |
| TEs | 6.9 | 7.6 |
Regular season, summed from each game's box score and scored with this page's rules.
How the Game Swung
Buffalo opened at 63% win probability and passed 98% before halftime on the way to the win.
Bills win probability
Key Swings
- +18Allen → Knox, 8-yd TD62% → 81%Q1 9:45
- +12Allen → Knox, 11-yd TD81% → 93%Q1 0:40
- +4Singletary 3-yd TD run94% → 98%Q2 7:20
- +1Singletary 16-yd TD run99% → >99%Q2 1:53
Swing in Bills win probability, in points
Play Calling and Possessions
| New England Patriots | Measure | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 61 | Plays | 54 |
| 67% | Pass rate | 46% |
| 5.3 | Yds / dropback | 12.3 |
| 4.5 | Yds / carry | 6.0 |
| 7/14 | Third downs | 6/7 |
Efficiency edge Buffalo ran 7 fewer plays but gained 7.0 more yards per dropback.
- Top targets
- NE Meyers 26% · Bourne 23% · Bolden 17%
- BUF Knox 20% · Singletary 16% · Diggs 16%
Possession Results
| Result | NE | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Touchdowns | 2 | 7 |
| Field goals | 1 | 0 |
| Punts | 3 | 0 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
BUF turnover edge: +2
- The Bills opened the scoring on their first possession, a 9-play, 70-yard drive that ended in a touchdown.
- The Bills scored touchdowns on three of their first three drives, then drained the clock with two second-half drives of four to six minutes.
All 17 possessions, drive by drive
| Team | Start | Plays | Yards | Time | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 70 | 5:15 | Touchdown |
| NE | Q1 9:45 | 9 | 53 | 4:05 | Interception |
| BUF | Q1 5:40 | 10 | 80 | 5:00 | Touchdown |
| NE | Q1 0:40 | 3 | 9 | 2:17 | Punt |
| BUF | Q2 13:23 | 10 | 81 | 6:03 | Touchdown |
| NE | Q2 7:20 | 5 | 28 | 3:36 | Punt |
| BUF | Q2 3:44 | 4 | 89 | 1:51 | Touchdown |
| NE | Q2 1:53 | 10 | 49 | 1:52 | Field goal |
| BUF | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | End of half |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 27 | 2:07 | Interception |
| BUF | Q3 12:53 | 6 | 58 | 4:05 | Touchdown |
| NE | Q3 8:48 | 11 | 75 | 4:36 | Touchdown |
| BUF | Q3 4:12 | 9 | 77 | 5:50 | Touchdown |
| NE | Q4 13:22 | 5 | 14 | 3:09 | Punt |
| BUF | Q4 10:13 | 3 | 39 | 1:36 | Touchdown |
| NE | Q4 8:37 | 15 | 73 | 6:53 | Touchdown |
| BUF | Q4 1:44 | 3 | -2 | 1:44 | End of game |
About these numbers
Possessions that ended with the clock running out at the half or the end of the game aren't counted.
Personnel groupings, average depth of target and pass rate over expected appear when the tracking feed is connected.
Patriots vs Bills Head-to-Head
The Patriots and Bills first met in 1960 and have played 133 times since. They have been AFC East rivals since 1970.
- All-time series
- 80–52–1Patriots lead, 133 meetings since 1960
- Postseason
- 1–1Patriots won in 1963; Bills won in 2021
- Largest Patriots win
- 56–102007
- Largest Bills win
- 45–101970
Since 2021
7–4 Bills lead
11 meetings since the 2021 season, regular season and playoffs.
Oldest to newest. B = Bills win, P = Patriots win, outlined = this game.
2026 Meetings
- Week 4 Patriots at Bills Upcoming
- Week 13 Bills at Patriots Upcoming
Recent Meetings
- 2025 Wk 15 Bills at Patriots, 2025 Wk 15 recap BUF 35 NE 31 BUF W
- 2025 Wk 5 Patriots at Bills, 2025 Wk 5 recap NE 23 BUF 20 NE W
- 2024 Wk 18 Bills at Patriots, 2024 Wk 18 recap NE 23 BUF 16 NE W
- 2024 Wk 16 Patriots at Bills, 2024 Wk 16 recap BUF 24 NE 21 BUF W
- 2023 Wk 17 Patriots at Bills, 2023 Wk 17 recap BUF 27 NE 21 BUF W
- 2023 Wk 7 Bills at Patriots, 2023 Wk 7 recap NE 29 BUF 25 NE W
- 2022 Wk 18 Patriots at Bills, 2022 Wk 18 recap BUF 35 NE 23 BUF W
- 2022 Wk 13 Bills at Patriots, 2022 Wk 13 recap BUF 24 NE 10 BUF W
- 2021 Wild Card Patriots at Bills BUF 47 NE 17 BUF W
- 2021 Wk 16 Bills at Patriots, 2021 Wk 16 recap BUF 33 NE 21 BUF W
- 2021 Wk 13 Patriots at Bills, 2021 Wk 13 recap NE 14 BUF 10 NE W
Season to Date (Through Week 18)
The 2021 regular season, from each game's box score.
| Patriots | Stat | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 10-7 | Record | 11-6 |
| 27.2 | Points per game | 28.4 |
| 353.4 | Yards per game | 381.9 |
| 5.7 | Yards per play | 5.7 |
| 17.8 | Points allowed per game | 17.0 |
| 310.8 | Yards allowed per game | 272.8 |
Patriots vs Bills Odds and Results
How this game finished against the betting lines.
- Spread
- BUF −4.5Bills covered by 25.5
- Total
- 43Over: 64 points scored (by 21)
Expected vs Actual Scoring
| Team | Implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 23.8 | 47 | +23.3 |
| Patriots | 19.3 | 17 | −2.3 |
The Bills beat their implied total and the Patriots fell short of theirs; the Fantasy tab has the player lines behind it.
Betting Trends
Last 3 meetings: Bills 2–1 ATS, overs 2–1.
Each team's 2021 season through this game. Over/under is overs first.
New England Patriots
- Against the spread
- 10–8
- Over/under
- 10–8
- ATS as favorite
- 7–5
- ATS as underdog
- 3–3
- ATS on the road
- 5–4
Buffalo Bills
- Against the spread
- 10–6–2
- Over/under
- 9–9
- ATS as favorite
- 8–5–2
- ATS as underdog
- 2–1
- ATS at home
- 5–3–2
Lines: ESPN's consensus, captured at kickoff. Individual sportsbooks varied.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Betting availability depends on your state.
Patriots vs Bills Fantasy Outlook for 2026
Two meetings are left on the 2026 schedule: Week 4 in Buffalo and Week 13 in New England. Here's how to decide who to play in your league.
- Start/Sit ToolShould your Patriots or Bills player start in Week 4? Compare the decision against your other options.
- Fantasy Football ProjectionsSee the latest weekly and rest-of-season projections for Patriots and Bills players.
- Fantasy Points Allowed by PositionHow the Patriots and Bills defenses have treated QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs.
- Strength of ScheduleWhere these two matchups fall in each team's fantasy playoff run.
- Redraft CommandConnect your league for personalized lineup, trade and roster advice.
Keep Exploring
2021 Game Logs for Players in This Game
Patriots vs Bills Game FAQ
Who won the 2021 Patriots vs Bills Wild Card game?
The Buffalo Bills beat the New England Patriots 47–17 in the Wild Card round of the 2021 playoffs. The game was played at Highmark Stadium (Old) in Orchard Park, NY, on January 15, 2022. See the Bills' 2021 schedule.
What was the final score of Patriots vs Bills?
The final score was Bills 47, Patriots 17. The Bills led 27–3 at halftime, and the second half went Patriots 14, Bills 20.
What happened in the Patriots vs Bills game?
Buffalo led 27–3 at halftime and outscored New England 20–14 after the break to win 47–17. The Bills finished with a 482–305 edge in total offense and averaged 8.9 yards per play. The Patriots committed 2 turnovers, the Bills none.
How did the Bills beat the Patriots?
The Bills beat the Patriots 47–17 because they averaged 8.9 yards per play to 5.0, won the turnover battle 2–0, and outgained them 482–305.
Which team won the turnover battle in Patriots vs Bills?
The Bills won the turnover battle 2–0: the Patriots gave the ball away 2 times and the Bills not at all. The Bills won the game.
What is the all-time Patriots vs Bills record?
The Patriots lead the all-time series 80–52–1 across 133 meetings since 1960, including a 1–1 record in the postseason.
When did the Patriots and Bills last play before this game?
Before the 2021 Wild Card round, they last met in the 2021 season on December 26, 2021, when the Bills beat the Patriots 33–21.
Have the Patriots and Bills met in the playoffs?
Yes, 2 times, most recently in the 2021 playoffs. The Patriots are 1–1 against the Bills in the postseason.
What is the Patriots vs Bills record since 2021?
The Bills lead 7–4 across 11 meetings since the 2021 season, including this game.
What was the closing spread for Patriots vs Bills?
The consensus closing spread at kickoff was Bills −4.5, making the Buffalo Bills 4.5-point favorites, with a closing total of 43. That implied about 23.8 points for the Bills and 19.3 for the Patriots.
Did Patriots vs Bills go over or under the total?
The game went over. The consensus closing total was 43, and the teams combined for 64 points, 21 over the number.
Who covered the spread in Patriots vs Bills?
The Bills covered by 25.5 against the closing line of Bills −4.5. The final margin was 30 points.