Final2021 Week 16

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots, Week 16 2021

Buffalo Bills

AwayWon

33

New England Patriots

Home

21

Scoring by quarter
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Bills71031333
Patriots077721

BUF 33NE 21 Final

  • Passing leader

    Josh Allen

    BUF · QB

    31.0PPR pts

    30/47, 314 YDS, 3 TD

  • Top fantasy scorer

    Isaiah McKenzie

    BUF · WR

    29.4PPR pts

    11 REC, 125 YDS, 1 TD

  • Patriots leader

    Damien Harris

    NE · RB

    28.3PPR pts

    18 ATT, 103 YDS, 3 TD

  • Defensive playmaker

    Micah Hyde

    BUF

    2 INT, 6 TKL

Bills 33, Patriots 21: Buffalo beats New England

Buffalo led 17–7 at halftime and outscored New England 16–14 after the break to win 33–21. The Bills finished with a 428–288 edge in total offense and averaged 5.7 yards per play.

The gap showed up everywhere. The Patriots went 1-for-10 on third down and committed two turnovers, while the Bills kept the ball for 35:09 and finished without a giveaway.

The two teams meet again in Week 4 of 2026. If you roster anyone from either side, run the start/sit call in Redraft Command and it will weigh your lineup, your opponent and your league scoring, not only the player rankings.

Key advantages

  • +0.9 yards/play BUF 5.7 · NE 4.8
  • +2 turnover margin BUF 0 turnovers
  • +140 total yards BUF 428 · NE 288

Game Highlights

Official NFL highlights · Opens from YouTube

Got a Bill or Patriot on your fantasy team?

Check their next matchup with the Start/Sit Tool, compare their value in the Fantasy Trade Calculator, or connect your league for personalized advice in Redraft Command.

Connect your league

Works with Sleeper, ESPN and Fleaflicker. No password needed.

Why the Bills Won

Buffalo won the efficiency, turnover, third-down, and time of possession battles.

Team stats comparison, Bills vs Patriots
BillsStatPatriots
5.7Yards per play4.8
0Turnovers2
428Total yards288
Other team stats
75Plays60
50%Third-down conversion10%
35:09Time of possession24:51

Scoring Summary

The Bills scored four touchdowns and two field goals; the Patriots scored three touchdowns.

Scoring plays, Bills vs Patriots
TimeTeamPlayBUFNE
1st quarter
6:37BUFJosh Allen → Isaiah McKenzie, 3-yard TD Takes leadTyler Bass XP70
2nd quarter
14:28NEDamien Harris 16-yard TD run Ties gameNick Folk XP77
9:01BUFTyler Bass 25-yard FG Takes lead107
1:45BUFJosh Allen → Stefon Diggs, 12-yard TD Extends leadTyler Bass XP177
3rd quarter
9:02BUFTyler Bass 34-yard FG Extends lead207
1:41NEDamien Harris 1-yard TD runNick Folk XP2014
4th quarter
11:42BUFDevin Singletary 2-yard TD run Extends lead2-pt try failed2614
7:37NEDamien Harris 8-yard TD runNick Folk XP2621
2:30BUFJosh Allen → Dawson Knox, 2-yard TD Extends leadTyler Bass XP3321

Fantasy Points: Bills vs Patriots, Week 16 2021

Fantasy leaders

  1. Josh AllenBUFQB31.0 PTSQB2
  2. Isaiah McKenzieBUFWR29.4 PTSWR4
  3. Damien HarrisNERB28.3 PTSRB4
  4. Stefon DiggsBUFWR21.5 PTSWR10

Player Stats

Quarterbacks

Quarterback statistics
PlayerFPTSFINCMP/ATTPass YDSTDINTRush ATTRush YDSRush TDRateStart/Sit
Josh AllenBUFQB31.0QB230/473143012640104.4Start/Sit →
Mac JonesNEQB6.1QB3314/3214502633031.4Start/Sit →

WRs, RBs, & TEs

Receiver, running back and tight end statistics
PlayerFPTSFINPOSRush ATTRush YDSRush TDTGTRECRec YDSRec TDStart/Sit
Isaiah McKenzieBUFWR29.4WR4WR1-1012111251
Damien HarrisNERB28.3RB4RB181033————
Stefon DiggsBUFWR21.5WR10WR———137851Start/Sit →
Devin SingletaryBUFRB18.8RB10RB1239165390Start/Sit →
Jakobi MeyersNEWR11.9WR37WR———86590Start/Sit →
Dawson KnoxBUFTE9.1TE15TE———32111Start/Sit →
Kendrick BourneNEWR5.3WR73WR———42330Start/Sit →
Brandon BoldenNERB4.4RB47RB24052200
Emmanuel SandersBUFWR4.0WR84WR———42200
Zack MossBUFRB3.5RB55RB312011130
N'Keal HarryNETE3.5TE34TE———62150
Jake KumerowBUFWR2.3WR98WR———31130
Hunter HenryNETE1.9TE46TE———6190Start/Sit →
Reggie GilliamBUFRB1.8RB69RB———1180Start/Sit →
Gunner OlszewskiNEWR-0.1—WR190————

Fantasy Usage

Buffalo Bills

Snap Share

  1. Dawson KnoxTE79 snaps100%
  2. Isaiah McKenzieWR67 snaps85%
  3. Emmanuel SandersWR65 snaps82%
  4. Stefon DiggsWR65 snaps82%
  5. Devin SingletaryRB54 snaps68%

Target Share43 targets

  1. Stefon Diggs30%, 13 targets
  2. Isaiah McKenzie28%, 12 targets
  3. Devin Singletary14%, 6 targets
  4. Emmanuel Sanders9%, 4 targets
  5. Jake Kumerow7%, 3 targets
  6. Other12%, 5 targets

Carry Share28 carries

  1. Josh Allen43%, 12 carries
  2. Devin Singletary43%, 12 carries
  3. Zack Moss11%, 3 carries
  4. Isaiah McKenzie4%, 1 carries

New England Patriots

Snap Share

  1. N'Keal HarryTE61 snaps95%
  2. Hunter HenryTE55 snaps86%
  3. Jakobi MeyersWR48 snaps75%
  4. Brandon BoldenRB34 snaps53%
  5. Damien HarrisRB31 snaps48%

Target Share29 targets

  1. Jakobi Meyers28%, 8 targets
  2. Hunter Henry21%, 6 targets
  3. N'Keal Harry21%, 6 targets
  4. Brandon Bolden17%, 5 targets
  5. Kendrick Bourne14%, 4 targets

Carry Share27 carries

  1. Damien Harris67%, 18 carries
  2. Mac Jones22%, 6 carries
  3. Brandon Bolden7%, 2 carries
  4. Gunner Olszewski4%, 1 carries
View full usage tableHide full usage table
Offensive snaps and share for the skill positions
PlayerSNAPSSNAP %TGTTGT %CAR
Dawson KnoxBUFTE79100%37%0
N'Keal HarryNETE6195%621%0
Hunter HenryNETE5586%621%0
Isaiah McKenzieBUFWR6785%1228%1
Emmanuel SandersBUFWR6582%49%0
Stefon DiggsBUFWR6582%1330%0
Jakobi MeyersNEWR4875%828%0
Devin SingletaryBUFRB5468%614%12
Brandon BoldenNERB3453%517%2
Damien HarrisNERB3148%00%18
Kendrick BourneNEWR3047%414%0
Zack MossBUFRB2633%12%3
Jonnu SmithNETE2133%00%0
Jake KumerowBUFWR1620%37%0
Reggie GilliamBUFRB911%12%0
Gunner OlszewskiNEWR46%00%1
Isaiah HodginsBUFWR45%00%0
Kristian WilkersonNEWR35%00%0

Fantasy Points vs Expected

Expected points (xFP) are what a player's pass attempts, carries and targets are worth at the league's average rates; the difference is what the player made of them.

  • Biggest overperformer+15.1Damien Harris28.3 PTS vs 13.2 xFP
  • Biggest underperformer−10.8Mac Jones7.1 PTS vs 17.9 xFP
  • Highest expected volume28.4 xFPJosh Allen31.0 PTS scored
Usage and expected fantasy points
PlayerPTSxFPvs xFPSnap%UsageRte%Pass attCarCar%TgtTgt%
Josh AllenBUF · QB31.028.4+2.6100%47 att—471243%00%
Stefon DiggsBUF · WR21.521.9−0.482%30% tgt—000%1330%
Isaiah McKenzieBUF · WR29.420.9+8.585%28% tgt—014%1228%
Mac JonesNE · QB7.117.9−10.8100%32 att—32622%00%
Devin SingletaryBUF · RB18.817.8+1.068%43% car—01243%614%
Jakobi MeyersNE · WR11.913.5−1.675%26% tgt—000%826%
Damien HarrisNE · RB28.313.2+15.148%67% car—01867%13%
Hunter HenryNE · TE1.910.1−8.286%19% tgt—000%619%
N'Keal HarryNE · TE3.510.1−6.695%19% tgt—000%619%
Brandon BoldenNE · RB4.49.7−5.353%16% tgt—027%516%
Emmanuel SandersBUF · WR4.06.7−2.782%9% tgt—000%49%
Kendrick BourneNE · WR5.36.7−1.447%13% tgt—000%413%
Dawson KnoxBUF · TE9.15.1+4.0100%7% tgt—000%37%
Jake KumerowBUF · WR2.35.1−2.820%7% tgt—000%37%
Zack MossBUF · RB3.53.6−0.133%11% car—0311%12%
Jakob JohnsonNE · RB1.91.7+0.2—3% tgt—000%13%
Reggie GilliamBUF · RB1.81.7+0.111%2% tgt—000%12%
Gunner OlszewskiNE · WR0.90.6+0.36%4% car—014%00%

Team totals: Bills 43 targets and 28 carries; Patriots 31 targets and 27 carries. Shares are from the box score. Snap counts are from the weekly player logs (Sleeper), and include plays wiped out by penalties. Route counts, air yards and red-zone touches appear when the tracking feed is connected. League-average rates from the 2021 season: 1.68 PPR points per target (67% catch rate), 0.64 per carry and 0.44 per pass attempt. They don't adjust for field position or target depth.

Fantasy Verdicts

Josh Allen

BUF · QB · 31.0 pts on 28.4 expected

30 of 47 passing for 314 yards, 3 touchdowns; 12 carries for 64 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 28.4 expected.

Start/Sit: Josh Allen →

Mac Jones Unlucky

NE · QB · 7.1 pts on 17.9 expected

14 of 32 passing for 145 yards, 2 interceptions; 6 carries for 33 yards.

Verdict: The role was there, worth 17.9 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.

Start/Sit: Mac Jones →

Stefon Diggs Volume, no payoff

BUF · WR · 21.5 pts on 21.9 expected

13 targets (30% of the team's), 7 catches for 85 yards and 1 touchdown.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 21.9 expected.

Start/Sit: Stefon Diggs →

Isaiah McKenzie Ran hot

BUF · WR · 29.4 pts on 20.9 expected

12 targets (28% of the team's), 11 catches for 125 yards and 1 touchdown; 1 carry (4% of the team's) for -1 yards.

Verdict: The opportunities were worth 20.9 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.

Jakobi Meyers

NE · WR · 11.9 pts on 13.5 expected

8 targets (26% of the team's), 6 catches for 59 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 13.5 expected.

Start/Sit: Jakobi Meyers →

Damien Harris Ran hot

NE · RB · 28.3 pts on 13.2 expected

1 target (3% of the team's), 0 catches for 0 yards; 18 carries (67% of the team's) for 103 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Verdict: The opportunities were worth 13.2 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.

Hunter Henry Unlucky

NE · TE · 1.9 pts on 10.1 expected

6 targets (19% of the team's), 1 catch for 9 yards.

Verdict: The role was there, worth 10.1 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.

Start/Sit: Hunter Henry →

N'Keal Harry Unlucky

NE · TE · 3.5 pts on 10.1 expected

6 targets (19% of the team's), 2 catches for 15 yards.

Verdict: The role was there, worth 10.1 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.

Stock Up, Stock Down

Buffalo Bills

  • Stock up: Isaiah McKenzie played 85% of the snaps, up from a 17% season average.

New England Patriots

  • Stock up: Brandon Bolden led the backfield with 53% of the snaps after trailing Damien Harris before this game.
  • Stock up: Hunter Henry played 86% of the snaps, up from a 67% season average.
  • Stock up: N'Keal Harry played 95% of the snaps, up from a 39% season average.

Fantasy Matchups

Fantasy points allowed per game by position, 2021 through Week 18.

Fantasy points allowed per game by position, Bills defense and Patriots defense
Points allowed toBills DPatriots D
QBs12.213.4
RBs20.421.5
WRs23.828.7
TEs7.66.9

Regular season, summed from each game's box score and scored with this page's rules.

How the Game Swung

New England opened at 53% win probability and fell below 2% in the fourth quarter.

Patriots win probability

Patriots win probability by game minutePatriots started at 53%, stood at 16% at halftime and finished at 0%, across 9 scoring plays.Q1Q2Q3Q4100%50%0%

Key Swings

  1. −22Allen → McKenzie, 3-yd TD53% → 31%Q1 6:37
  2. +23Harris 16-yd TD run30% → 53%Q2 14:28
  3. −23Allen → Diggs, 12-yd TD40% → 17%Q2 1:45
  4. +17Harris 1-yd TD run4% → 21%Q3 1:41
  5. +15Harris 8-yd TD run1% → 16%Q4 7:37

Swing in Patriots win probability, in points

Play Calling and Possessions

Play calling, Bills vs Patriots
Buffalo BillsMeasureNew England Patriots
75Plays60
63%Pass rate55%
6.7Yds / dropback4.2
4.1Yds / carry5.5
6/12Third downs1/10

Efficiency edge Buffalo ran 15 more plays and gained 2.5 more yards per dropback.

  • Top targets
  • BUF Diggs 30% · McKenzie 28% · Singletary 14%
  • NE Meyers 26% · Henry 19% · Harry 19%

Possession Results

How each possession ended, Bills vs Patriots
ResultBUFNE
Touchdowns43
Field goals20
Punts03
Turnovers02
Turnovers on downs10

BUF turnover edge: +2

  • The Bills opened the scoring on their first possession, a 13-play, 61-yard drive that ended in a touchdown.
  • The Bills drained the clock with three second-half drives of four to six minutes.
All 17 possessions, drive by drive
Drive chart
TeamStartPlaysYardsTimeResult
NEQ1 15:003-61:26Punt
BUFQ1 13:3413616:57Touchdown
NEQ1 6:3713757:09Touchdown
BUFQ2 14:2810685:27Field goal
NEQ2 9:013141:04Interception
BUFQ2 7:577323:13Downs
NEQ2 4:44371:34Punt
BUFQ2 3:107421:25Touchdown
NEQ2 1:45570:45Punt
BUFQ2 1:00211:00End of half
BUFQ3 15:0014645:58Field goal
NEQ3 9:0214757:21Touchdown
BUFQ3 1:419664:59Touchdown
NEQ4 11:4210754:05Touchdown
BUFQ4 7:3713755:07Touchdown
NEQ4 2:309341:27Interception
BUFQ4 1:032-11:03End of game
About these numbers

Possessions that ended with the clock running out at the half or the end of the game aren't counted.

Personnel groupings, average depth of target and pass rate over expected appear when the tracking feed is connected.

Bills vs Patriots Head-to-Head

The Bills and Patriots first met in 1960 and have played 133 times since. They have been AFC East rivals since 1970.

All-time series
80–52–1Patriots lead, 133 meetings since 1960
Postseason
1–1Bills won in 2021; Patriots won in 1963
Largest Bills win
45–101970
Largest Patriots win
56–102007

Since 2021

7–4 Bills lead

11 meetings since the 2021 season, regular season and playoffs.

Oldest to newest. B = Bills win, P = Patriots win, outlined = this game.

2026 Meetings

  • Week 4 Patriots at Bills Upcoming
  • Week 13 Bills at Patriots Upcoming

Recent Meetings

Season to Date (Through Week 18)

The 2021 regular season, from each game's box score.

Season to date, Bills vs Patriots
BillsStatPatriots
11-6Record10-7
28.4Points per game27.2
381.9Yards per game353.4
5.7Yards per play5.7
17.0Points allowed per game17.8
272.8Yards allowed per game310.8

Bills vs Patriots Odds and Results

How this game finished against the betting lines.

Spread
NE −1Patriots failed to cover by 13
Total
43.5Over: 54 points scored (by 10.5)

Expected vs Actual Scoring

Implied team totals against the actual score
TeamImpliedActualDifference
Patriots22.321−1.3
Bills21.333+11.8

The Bills beat their implied total and the Patriots fell short of theirs; the Fantasy tab has the player lines behind it.

Betting Trends

Last 2 meetings: Bills 1–1 ATS, overs and unders 1–1.

Each team's 2021 season through this game. Over/under is overs first.

Buffalo Bills

Against the spread
8–6–1
Over/under
8–7
ATS as favorite
6–5–1
ATS as underdog
2–1
ATS on the road
5–3

New England Patriots

Against the spread
9–6
Over/under
7–8
ATS as favorite
6–4
ATS as underdog
3–2
ATS at home
4–4

Lines: ESPN's consensus, captured at kickoff. Individual sportsbooks varied.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Betting availability depends on your state.

Bills vs Patriots Fantasy Outlook for 2026

Two meetings are left on the 2026 schedule: Week 4 in Buffalo and Week 13 in New England. Here's how to decide who to play in your league.

Keep Exploring

2021 Game Logs for Players in This Game

Bills vs Patriots Game FAQ

Who won the 2021 Bills vs Patriots Week 16 game?

The Buffalo Bills beat the New England Patriots 33–21 in Week 16 of the 2021 season. The game was played at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA, on December 26, 2021. See the Bills' 2021 schedule.

What was the final score of Bills vs Patriots?

The final score was Bills 33, Patriots 21. The Bills led 17–7 at halftime, and the second half went Bills 16, Patriots 14.

What happened in the Bills vs Patriots game?

Buffalo led 17–7 at halftime and outscored New England 16–14 after the break to win 33–21. The Bills finished with a 428–288 edge in total offense and averaged 5.7 yards per play. Josh Allen led all players with 30 of 47 passing for 314 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 12 carries for 64 rushing yards. The Patriots committed 2 turnovers, the Bills none.

Who scored the most fantasy points in Bills vs Patriots?

Josh Allen led the game with 31.0 PPR fantasy points, the QB2 of Week 16, on 30 of 47 passing for 314 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 12 carries for 64 rushing yards. Isaiah McKenzie was next with 29.4 (WR4). See Josh Allen's 2021 game log.

Who led Bills vs Patriots in passing, rushing and receiving?

Josh Allen (BUF) led all passers with 30 of 47 for 314 yards and 3 touchdowns. Damien Harris (NE) led in rushing with 18 carries for 103 yards and 3 touchdowns. Isaiah McKenzie (BUF) led in receiving with 11 catches for 125 yards and a touchdown.

How many fantasy points did Josh Allen score against the Patriots?

Josh Allen scored 31.0 fantasy points against the Patriots in Week 16 of the 2021 season, the same in PPR, half-PPR and standard scoring because he had no catches, on 30 of 47 passing for 314 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 12 carries for 64 rushing yards. He handled 43% of his team's carries.

Who outperformed and underperformed expected fantasy points in Bills vs Patriots?

Damien Harris outperformed his expected fantasy points the most, scoring 28.3 PPR points on 13.2 xFP (+15.1). Mac Jones fell furthest short, with 7.1 points on 17.9 xFP (−10.8). A gap either way reflects efficiency and touchdowns in one game; it is not a forecast. For matchups ahead, see fantasy points allowed by position.

How did the Bills beat the Patriots?

The Bills beat the Patriots 33–21 because they averaged 5.7 yards per play to 4.8, won the turnover battle 2–0, and outgained them 428–288.

Which team won the turnover battle in Bills vs Patriots?

The Bills won the turnover battle 2–0: the Patriots gave the ball away 2 times and the Bills not at all. The Bills won the game.

What is the all-time Bills vs Patriots record?

The Patriots lead the all-time series 80–52–1 across 133 meetings since 1960, including a 1–1 record in the postseason.

When did the Bills and Patriots last play before this game?

Before Week 16 of 2021, they last met in the 2021 season on December 6, 2021, when the Patriots beat the Bills 14–10.

Have the Bills and Patriots met in the playoffs?

Yes, 2 times, most recently in the 2021 playoffs. The Bills are 1–1 against the Patriots in the postseason.

What was the closing spread for Bills vs Patriots?

The consensus closing spread at kickoff was Patriots −1, making the New England Patriots 1-point favorites, with a closing total of 43.5. That implied about 22.3 points for the Patriots and 21.3 for the Bills.

Did Bills vs Patriots go over or under the total?

The game went over. The consensus closing total was 43.5, and the teams combined for 54 points, 10.5 over the number.

Who covered the spread in Bills vs Patriots?

The Bills covered as 1-point underdogs against the closing line of Patriots −1. The final margin was 12 points.