Final2023 Week 7

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots, Week 7 2023

Buffalo Bills

Away

25

New England Patriots

HomeWon

29

Scoring by quarter
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Bills0371525
Patriots10331329

BUF 25NE 29 Final

  • Passing leader

    Mac Jones

    NE · QB

    20.0PPR pts

    25/30, 272 YDS, 2 TD

  • Top fantasy scorer

    James Cook III

    BUF · RB

    19.2PPR pts

    13 ATT, 56 YDS, 3 REC, 46 REC YDS, 1 REC TD

  • Bills leader

    Josh Allen

    BUF · QB

    25.3PPR pts

    27/41, 265 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT, 1 RUSH TD

  • Defensive playmaker

    Jabrill Peppers

    NE

    1 INT, 9 TKL

Patriots 29, Bills 25: New England beats Buffalo

New England led 13–3 at halftime and won 29–25, though Buffalo took the second half 22–16. The Patriots finished with a narrow 364–339 edge in total offense and averaged 6.6 yards per play.

The gap showed up everywhere. The Bills went 5-for-12 on third down and committed two turnovers.

The two teams meet again in Week 4 of 2026. If you roster anyone from either side, run the start/sit call in Redraft Command and it will weigh your lineup, your opponent and your league scoring, not only the player rankings.

Key advantages

  • +1.5 yards/play NE 6.6 · BUF 5.1
  • +1 turnover margin NE 1 · BUF 2 turnovers
  • +25 total yards NE 364 · BUF 339

Game Highlights

Official NFL highlights · Opens from YouTube

Got a Bill or Patriot on your fantasy team?

Check their next matchup with the Start/Sit Tool, compare their value in the Fantasy Trade Calculator, or connect your league for personalized advice in Redraft Command.

Connect your league

Works with Sleeper, ESPN and Fleaflicker. No password needed.

Why the Patriots Won

New England won the efficiency, turnover, and third-down battles.

Team stats comparison, Bills vs Patriots
BillsStatPatriots
5.1Yards per play6.6
2Turnovers1
339Total yards364
Other team stats
66Plays55
42%Third-down conversion44%
32:14Time of possession27:46

Scoring Summary

The Patriots scored three touchdowns and three field goals; the Bills scored three touchdowns and one field goal.

Scoring plays, Bills vs Patriots
TimeTeamPlayBUFNE
1st quarter
10:02NEChad Ryland 30-yard FG Takes lead03
6:58NEEzekiel Elliott 2-yard TD run Extends leadChad Ryland XP010
2nd quarter
14:49BUFTyler Bass 36-yard FG310
7:36NEChad Ryland 24-yard FG Extends lead313
3rd quarter
9:53BUFJosh Allen → James Cook, 8-yard TDTyler Bass XP1013
4:30NEChad Ryland 49-yard FG Extends lead1016
4th quarter
7:36NEMac Jones → Kendrick Bourne, 4-yard TD Extends lead2-pt try failed1022
5:32BUFJosh Allen → Stefon Diggs, 25-yard TDTyler Bass XP1722
1:58BUFJosh Allen 1-yard TD run Takes leadJosh Allen → Dawson Knox, 2-pt conversion2522
0:12NEMac Jones → Mike Gesicki, 1-yard TD Game winnerChad Ryland XP2529

Fantasy Points: Bills vs Patriots, Week 7 2023

Fantasy leaders

  1. Josh AllenBUFQB25.3 PTSQB4
  2. Mac JonesNEQB20.0 PTSQB8
  3. James CookBUFRB19.2 PTSRB8
  4. Stefon DiggsBUFWR17.8 PTSWR12

Player Stats

Quarterbacks

Quarterback statistics
PlayerFPTSFINCMP/ATTPass YDSTDINTRush ATTRush YDSRush TDRateStart/Sit
Mac JonesNEQB20.0QB825/30272203110126.7Start/Sit →
Josh AllenBUFQB25.3QB427/4126521717190.0Start/Sit →

WRs, RBs, & TEs

Receiver, running back and tight end statistics
PlayerFPTSFINPOSRush ATTRush YDSRush TDTGTRECRec YDSRec TDStart/Sit
James CookBUFRB19.2RB8RB1356033461
Stefon DiggsBUFWR17.8WR12WR———126581Start/Sit →
Kendrick BourneNEWR16.3WR15WR———76631Start/Sit →
Dalton KincaidBUFTE15.5TE7TE———88750Start/Sit →
Rhamondre StevensonNERB14.5RB15RB934066510Start/Sit →
DeMario DouglasNEWR11.4WR31WR120064540Start/Sit →
Ezekiel ElliottNERB9.1RB25RB113111000
Mike GesickiNETE8.5TE15TE———2251Start/Sit →
Khalil ShakirBUFWR7.5WR50WR———44350Start/Sit →
Pharaoh BrownNETE7.1TE17TE———22510
Latavius MurrayBUFRB4.8RB43RB48022200
Hunter HenryNETE4.7TE23TE———32270Start/Sit →
Dawson KnoxBUFTE4.0TE25TE———31100Start/Sit →
Jalen ReagorNEWR2.1WR82WR———11110
Deonte HartyBUFWR2.0WR83WR———11100
DeVante ParkerNEWR1.8WR84WR———1180
Gabe DavisBUFWR1.6WR89WR———5160
Trent SherfieldBUFWR1.5WR91WR———1150
Tyquan ThorntonNEWR1.2WR96WR———1120Start/Sit →

Fantasy Usage

Buffalo Bills

Snap Share

  1. Gabe DavisWR68 snaps96%
  2. Stefon DiggsWR62 snaps87%
  3. Dawson KnoxTE45 snaps63%
  4. Dalton KincaidTE43 snaps61%
  5. James CookRB37 snaps52%

Target Share39 targets

  1. Stefon Diggs31%, 12 targets
  2. Dalton Kincaid21%, 8 targets
  3. Gabe Davis13%, 5 targets
  4. Khalil Shakir10%, 4 targets
  5. Dawson Knox8%, 3 targets
  6. Other18%, 7 targets

Carry Share24 carries

  1. James Cook54%, 13 carries
  2. Josh Allen29%, 7 carries
  3. Latavius Murray17%, 4 carries

New England Patriots

Snap Share

  1. Kendrick BourneWR56 snaps93%
  2. Rhamondre StevensonRB39 snaps65%
  3. DeMario DouglasWR37 snaps62%
  4. DeVante ParkerWR35 snaps58%
  5. Hunter HenryTE30 snaps50%

Target Share30 targets

  1. Kendrick Bourne23%, 7 targets
  2. Rhamondre Stevenson20%, 6 targets
  3. DeMario Douglas20%, 6 targets
  4. Hunter Henry10%, 3 targets
  5. Pharaoh Brown7%, 2 targets
  6. Other20%, 6 targets

Carry Share24 carries

  1. Ezekiel Elliott46%, 11 carries
  2. Rhamondre Stevenson38%, 9 carries
  3. Mac Jones13%, 3 carries
  4. DeMario Douglas4%, 1 carries
View full usage tableHide full usage table
Offensive snaps and share for the skill positions
PlayerSNAPSSNAP %TGTTGT %CAR
Gabe DavisBUFWR6896%513%0
Kendrick BourneNEWR5693%723%0
Stefon DiggsBUFWR6287%1231%0
Rhamondre StevensonNERB3965%620%9
Dawson KnoxBUFTE4563%38%0
DeMario DouglasNEWR3762%620%1
Dalton KincaidBUFTE4361%821%0
DeVante ParkerNEWR3558%13%0
James CookBUFRB3752%38%13
Hunter HenryNETE3050%310%0
Mike GesickiNETE3050%27%0
Latavius MurrayBUFRB3245%25%4
Jalen ReagorNEWR2542%13%0
Pharaoh BrownNETE2338%27%0
Ezekiel ElliottNERB2135%13%11
Khalil ShakirBUFWR2434%410%0
Deonte HartyBUFWR1927%13%0
Trent SherfieldBUFWR1623%13%0
Reggie GilliamBUFRB46%00%0
Tyquan ThorntonNEWR35%13%0
Ty MontgomeryNERB12%00%0
Ty JohnsonBUFRB11%00%0

Fantasy Points vs Expected

Expected points (xFP) are what a player's pass attempts, carries and targets are worth at the league's average rates; the difference is what the player made of them.

  • Biggest overperformer+6.2James Cook III19.2 PTS vs 13.0 xFP
  • Biggest underperformer−6.7Gabe Davis1.6 PTS vs 8.3 xFP
  • Highest expected volume21.5 xFPJosh Allen25.3 PTS scored
Usage and expected fantasy points
PlayerPTSxFPvs xFPSnap%UsageRte%Pass attCarCar%TgtTgt%
Josh AllenBUF · QB25.321.5+3.8100%41 att—41729%00%
Stefon DiggsBUF · WR17.820.0−2.287%31% tgt—000%1231%
Rhamondre StevensonNE · RB14.515.5−1.065%38% car—0938%620%
Mac JonesNE · QB20.014.5+5.5100%30 att—30313%00%
Dalton KincaidBUF · TE15.513.4+2.161%21% tgt—000%821%
James Cook IIIBUF · RB19.213.0+6.252%54% car—01354%38%
Kendrick BourneNE · WR16.311.7+4.693%23% tgt—000%723%
DeMario DouglasNE · WR11.410.6+0.862%20% tgt—014%620%
Ezekiel ElliottNE · RB9.18.4+0.735%46% car—01146%13%
Gabe DavisBUF · WR1.68.3−6.796%13% tgt—000%513%
Khalil ShakirBUF · WR7.56.7+0.834%10% tgt—000%410%
Latavius MurrayBUF · RB4.85.8−1.045%17% car—0417%25%
Dawson KnoxBUF · TE4.05.0−1.063%8% tgt—000%38%
Hunter HenryNE · TE4.75.0−0.350%10% tgt—000%310%
Mike GesickiNE · TE8.53.3+5.250%7% tgt—000%27%
Pharaoh BrownNE · TE7.13.3+3.838%7% tgt—000%27%
Deonte HartyBUF · WR2.01.7+0.327%3% tgt—000%13%
DeVante ParkerNE · WR1.81.7+0.158%3% tgt—000%13%
Jalen ReagorNE · WR2.11.7+0.442%3% tgt—000%13%
Trent SherfieldBUF · WR1.51.7−0.223%3% tgt—000%13%
Tyquan ThorntonNE · WR1.21.7−0.55%3% tgt—000%13%

Team totals: Bills 39 targets and 24 carries; Patriots 30 targets and 24 carries. Shares are from the box score. Snap counts are from the weekly player logs (Sleeper), and include plays wiped out by penalties. Route counts, air yards and red-zone touches appear when the tracking feed is connected. League-average rates from the 2023 season: 1.67 PPR points per target (67% catch rate), 0.61 per carry and 0.42 per pass attempt. They don't adjust for field position or target depth.

Fantasy Verdicts

Josh Allen

BUF · QB · 25.3 pts on 21.5 expected

27 of 41 passing for 265 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception; 7 carries for 17 yards and 1 touchdown.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 21.5 expected.

Start/Sit: Josh Allen →

Mac Jones Ran hot

NE · QB · 20.0 pts on 14.5 expected

25 of 30 passing for 272 yards, 2 touchdowns; 3 carries for 11 yards.

Verdict: The opportunities were worth 14.5 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.

Start/Sit: Mac Jones →

Stefon Diggs Volume, no payoff

BUF · WR · 17.8 pts on 20.0 expected

12 targets (31% of the team's), 6 catches for 58 yards and 1 touchdown.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 20.0 expected.

Start/Sit: Stefon Diggs →

Dalton Kincaid

BUF · TE · 15.5 pts on 13.4 expected

8 targets (21% of the team's), 8 catches for 75 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 13.4 expected.

Start/Sit: Dalton Kincaid →

Rhamondre Stevenson

NE · RB · 14.5 pts on 15.5 expected

6 targets (20% of the team's), 6 catches for 51 yards; 9 carries (38% of the team's) for 34 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 15.5 expected.

Start/Sit: Rhamondre Stevenson →

Kendrick Bourne

NE · WR · 16.3 pts on 11.7 expected

7 targets (23% of the team's), 6 catches for 63 yards and 1 touchdown.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 11.7 expected.

Start/Sit: Kendrick Bourne →

James Cook III Ran hot

BUF · RB · 19.2 pts on 13.0 expected

3 targets (8% of the team's), 3 catches for 46 yards and 1 touchdown; 13 carries (54% of the team's) for 56 yards.

Verdict: The opportunities were worth 13.0 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.

Gabe Davis Unlucky

BUF · WR · 1.6 pts on 8.3 expected

5 targets (13% of the team's), 1 catch for 6 yards.

Verdict: The role was there, worth 8.3 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.

Stock Up, Stock Down

Buffalo Bills

  • Stock up: Latavius Murray played 45% of the snaps, up from a 29% season average.

New England Patriots

  • Stock up: Kendrick Bourne played 93% of the snaps, up from a 72% season average.
  • Stock up: DeMario Douglas played 62% of the snaps, up from a 24% season average.
  • Stock up: Jalen Reagor played 42% of the snaps, up from a 23% season average.

Fantasy Matchups

Fantasy points allowed per game by position, 2023 through Week 18.

Fantasy points allowed per game by position, Bills defense and Patriots defense
Points allowed toBills DPatriots D
QBs14.814.6
RBs20.920.9
WRs29.531.7
TEs10.39.0

Regular season, summed from each game's box score and scored with this page's rules.

How the Game Swung

New England opened at 50% win probability, fell as low as <1%, then rallied to win.

Patriots win probability

Patriots win probability by game minutePatriots started at 50%, stood at 85% at halftime and finished at 100%, across 10 scoring plays.Q1Q2Q3Q4100%50%0%

Key Swings

  1. +19Elliott 2-yd TD run59% → 79%Q1 6:58
  2. −24Allen → Cook, 8-yd TD87% → 63%Q3 9:53
  3. +13Ryland 49-yd FG65% → 78%Q3 4:30
  4. −87Allen 1-yd TD run98% → 11%Q4 1:58
  5. +100Jones → Gesicki, 1-yd TD<1% → >99%Q4 0:12

Swing in Patriots win probability, in points

Play Calling and Possessions

Play calling, Bills vs Patriots
Buffalo BillsMeasureNew England Patriots
66Plays55
64%Pass rate56%
6.1Yds / dropback8.6
3.4Yds / carry4.0
5/12Third downs4/9

Efficiency edge New England ran 11 fewer plays but gained 2.5 more yards per dropback.

  • Top targets
  • BUF Diggs 31% · Kincaid 21% · Davis 13%
  • NE Bourne 23% · Douglas 20% · Stevenson 20%

Possession Results

How each possession ended, Bills vs Patriots
ResultBUFNE
Touchdowns33
Field goals13
Punts12
Turnovers21
Turnovers on downs10
Missed field goals10

NE turnover edge: +1

  • The Patriots opened the scoring on their first possession, a 9-play, 63-yard drive that ended in a field goal.
  • The Patriots drained the clock with two second-half drives of five to seven minutes.
All 19 possessions, drive by drive
Drive chart
TeamStartPlaysYardsTimeResult
NEQ1 15:009634:58Field goal
BUFQ1 10:02100:15Interception
NEQ1 9:477452:49Touchdown
BUFQ1 6:5813577:09Field goal
NEQ2 14:49351:53Punt
BUFQ2 12:56332:36Punt
NEQ2 10:205402:44Field goal
BUFQ2 7:3612515:45Missed FG
NEQ2 1:516191:30Punt
BUFQ2 0:21120:21End of half
BUFQ3 15:0010815:07Touchdown
NEQ3 9:539445:23Field goal
BUFQ3 4:3013425:47Downs
NEQ4 13:439666:07Touchdown
BUFQ4 7:365752:04Touchdown
NEQ4 5:32240:36Fumble
BUFQ4 4:568292:58Touchdown
NEQ4 1:588751:46Touchdown
BUFQ4 0:12250:12Fumble
About these numbers

Possessions that ended with the clock running out at the half or the end of the game aren't counted.

Personnel groupings, average depth of target and pass rate over expected appear when the tracking feed is connected.

Bills vs Patriots Head-to-Head

The Bills and Patriots first met in 1960 and have played 133 times since. They have been AFC East rivals since 1970.

All-time series
80–52–1Patriots lead, 133 meetings since 1960
Postseason
1–1Bills won in 2021; Patriots won in 1963
Largest Bills win
45–101970
Largest Patriots win
56–102007

Since 2021

7–4 Bills lead

11 meetings since the 2021 season, regular season and playoffs.

Oldest to newest. B = Bills win, P = Patriots win, outlined = this game.

2026 Meetings

  • Week 4 Patriots at Bills Upcoming
  • Week 13 Bills at Patriots Upcoming

Recent Meetings

Season to Date (Through Week 18)

The 2023 regular season, from each game's box score.

Season to date, Bills vs Patriots
BillsStatPatriots
11-6Record4-13
26.5Points per game13.9
374.5Yards per game276.2
5.7Yards per play4.6
18.3Points allowed per game21.5
307.2Yards allowed per game301.6

Bills vs Patriots Fantasy Outlook for 2026

Two meetings are left on the 2026 schedule: Week 4 in Buffalo and Week 13 in New England. Here's how to decide who to play in your league.

Keep Exploring

2023 Game Logs for Players in This Game

Bills vs Patriots Game FAQ

Who won the 2023 Bills vs Patriots Week 7 game?

The New England Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills 29–25 in Week 7 of the 2023 season. The game was played at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA, on October 22, 2023. See the Patriots' 2023 schedule.

What was the final score of Bills vs Patriots?

The final score was Patriots 29, Bills 25. The Patriots led 13–3 at halftime, and the second half went Bills 22, Patriots 16.

What happened in the Bills vs Patriots game?

New England led 13–3 at halftime and won 29–25, though Buffalo took the second half 22–16. The Patriots finished with a narrow 364–339 edge in total offense and averaged 6.6 yards per play. Josh Allen led all players with 27 of 41 passing for 265 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 7 carries for 17 rushing yards and a touchdown. The Bills committed 2 turnovers, the Patriots 1.

What was the game-winning score in Bills vs Patriots?

Mac Jones' 1-yard touchdown pass to Mike Gesicki with 0:12 left in the fourth quarter gave the Patriots a 29–25 lead they never gave up. It was the final score of the game.

Who scored the most fantasy points in Bills vs Patriots?

Josh Allen led the game with 25.3 PPR fantasy points, the QB4 of Week 7, on 27 of 41 passing for 265 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 7 carries for 17 rushing yards and a touchdown. Mac Jones was next with 20.0 (QB8). See Josh Allen's 2023 game log.

Who led Bills vs Patriots in passing, rushing and receiving?

Mac Jones (NE) led all passers with 25 of 30 for 272 yards and 2 touchdowns. James Cook (BUF) led in rushing with 13 carries for 56 yards. Dalton Kincaid (BUF) led in receiving with 8 catches for 75 yards.

How many fantasy points did Josh Allen score against the Patriots?

Josh Allen scored 25.3 fantasy points against the Patriots in Week 7 of the 2023 season, the same in PPR, half-PPR and standard scoring because he had no catches, on 27 of 41 passing for 265 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 7 carries for 17 rushing yards and a touchdown.

Who outperformed and underperformed expected fantasy points in Bills vs Patriots?

James Cook III outperformed his expected fantasy points the most, scoring 19.2 PPR points on 13.0 xFP (+6.2). Gabe Davis fell furthest short, with 1.6 points on 8.3 xFP (−6.7). A gap either way reflects efficiency and touchdowns in one game; it is not a forecast. For matchups ahead, see fantasy points allowed by position.

Who had the highest expected fantasy points in Bills vs Patriots?

Josh Allen had the most fantasy opportunity in the game, worth 21.5 expected PPR points (xFP) at league-average rates, and scored 25.3. Expected points measure the volume of a player's pass attempts, carries and targets, not how well he used them.

How did the Patriots come back to beat the Bills?

The Patriots' chances of winning fell as low as <1% in the fourth quarter. Mac Jones' 1-yard touchdown pass to Mike Gesicki in the fourth quarter was the biggest swing of the game. Mac Jones' 1-yard touchdown pass to Mike Gesicki then put them ahead for good.

Which team won the turnover battle in Bills vs Patriots?

The Patriots won the turnover battle 2–1: the Bills gave the ball away 2 times and the Patriots 1 time. The Patriots won the game.

What was the turning point of Bills vs Patriots?

Mac Jones' 1-yard touchdown pass to Mike Gesicki with 0:12 left in the fourth quarter was the biggest swing of the game, moving the Patriots' win probability from <1% to >99%.

What is the all-time Bills vs Patriots record?

The Patriots lead the all-time series 80–52–1 across 133 meetings since 1960, including a 1–1 record in the postseason.

When did the Bills and Patriots last play before this game?

Before Week 7 of 2023, they last met in the 2022 season on January 8, 2023, when the Bills beat the Patriots 35–23.

Have the Bills and Patriots met in the playoffs?

Yes, 2 times, most recently in the 2021 playoffs. The Bills are 1–1 against the Patriots in the postseason.