Final2023 Week 17

Highmark Stadium (Old), Orchard Park, NY

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills, Week 17 2023

New England Patriots

Away

21

Buffalo Bills

HomeWon

27

Scoring by quarter
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Patriots770721
Bills1377027

NE 21BUF 27 Final

  • Passing leader

    Bailey Zappe

    NE · QB

    15.1PPR pts

    16/26, 209 YDS, 3 INT, 1 RUSH TD

  • Top fantasy scorer

    Dalton Kincaid

    BUF · TE

    12.7PPR pts

    4 REC, 87 YDS

  • Patriots leader

    Ezekiel Elliott

    NE · RB

    11.5PPR pts

    14 ATT, 39 YDS, 1 TD, 1 REC, 6 REC YDS

  • Defensive playmaker

    Rasul Douglas

    BUF

    2 INT, 1 TD, 2 TKL

Bills 27, Patriots 21: Buffalo beats New England

Buffalo led 20–14 at halftime to win 27–21. New England outgained the Bills 294–281.

The Patriots went 4-for-10 on third down and committed four turnovers, while the Bills kept the ball for 32:52.

The two teams meet again in Week 4 of 2026. If you roster anyone from either side, run the start/sit call in Redraft Command and it will weigh your lineup, your opponent and your league scoring, not only the player rankings.

Key advantages

  • +3 turnover margin BUF 1 · NE 4 turnovers
  • +7% third-down rate BUF 47% · NE 40%
  • +5:44 time of possession BUF 32:52 · NE 27:08

Game Highlights

Official NFL highlights · Opens from YouTube

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Why the Bills Won

Buffalo won the turnover, third-down, and time of possession battles.

Team stats comparison, Patriots vs Bills
PatriotsStatBills
4Turnovers1
40%Third-down conversion47%
27:08Time of possession32:52
Other team stats
294Total yards281
5.5Yards per play4.1
53Plays68

Scoring Summary

The Bills scored three touchdowns and two field goals; the Patriots scored three touchdowns.

Scoring plays, Patriots vs Bills
TimeTeamPlayNEBUF
1st quarter
14:48NEJalen Reagor 98-yard kickoff return TD Takes leadChad Ryland XP70
12:07BUFTyler Bass 35-yard FG73
6:37BUFJosh Allen 1-yard TD run Takes leadTyler Bass XP710
2:16BUFTyler Bass 24-yard FG Extends lead713
2nd quarter
12:36BUFRasul Douglas 40-yard interception return TD Extends leadTyler Bass XP720
9:44NEBailey Zappe 17-yard TD runChad Ryland XP1420
3rd quarter
10:42BUFJosh Allen 1-yard TD run Extends leadTyler Bass XP1427
4th quarter
11:01NEEzekiel Elliott 6-yard TD runChad Ryland XP2127

Fantasy Points: Patriots vs Bills, Week 17 2023

Fantasy leaders

  1. Josh AllenBUFQB22.2 PTSQB6
  2. Bailey ZappeNEQB15.1 PTSQB18
  3. Dalton KincaidBUFTE12.7 PTSTE7
  4. Ezekiel ElliottNERB11.5 PTSRB26

Player Stats

Quarterbacks

Quarterback statistics
PlayerFPTSFINCMP/ATTPass YDSTDINTRush ATTRush YDSRush TDRateStart/Sit
Bailey ZappeNEQB15.1QB1816/2620903537147.3
Josh AllenBUFQB22.2QB615/30169011144253.3Start/Sit →
Kyle AllenBUFQB-0.2—————2-20—Start/Sit →

WRs, RBs, & TEs

Receiver, running back and tight end statistics
PlayerFPTSFINPOSRush ATTRush YDSRush TDTGTRECRec YDSRec TDStart/Sit
Dalton KincaidBUFTE12.7TE7TE———74870Start/Sit →
Ezekiel ElliottNERB11.5RB26RB143912160
Jalen ReagorNEWR10.9WR35WR———31390
Kevin HarrisNERB8.9RB35RB215022540
Khalil ShakirBUFWR8.9WR46WR110044390Start/Sit →
Mike GesickiNETE7.5TE21TE———64350Start/Sit →
DeMario DouglasNEWR7.3WR54WR312053310Start/Sit →
Stefon DiggsBUFWR7.1WR55WR15074260Start/Sit →
James CookBUFRB5.4RB48RB1648031-40
Tyquan ThorntonNEWR5.4WR68WR———33240Start/Sit →
Gabe DavisBUFWR4.1WR76WR———32210
DeVante ParkerNEWR2.5WR87WR———21150
Ty JohnsonBUFRB2.2RB63RB5220————Start/Sit →
Latavius MurrayBUFRB0.0—RB1001000
Trent SherfieldBUFWR0.0—WR———3000
Pharaoh BrownNETE-0.5—TE———1150

Fantasy Usage

New England Patriots

Snap Share

  1. DeMario DouglasWR50 snaps94%
  2. Ezekiel ElliottRB43 snaps81%
  3. Tyquan ThorntonWR37 snaps70%
  4. Pharaoh BrownTE36 snaps68%
  5. Mike GesickiTE36 snaps68%

Target Share24 targets

  1. Mike Gesicki25%, 6 targets
  2. DeMario Douglas21%, 5 targets
  3. Jalen Reagor13%, 3 targets
  4. Tyquan Thornton13%, 3 targets
  5. DeVante Parker8%, 2 targets
  6. Other21%, 5 targets

Carry Share24 carries

  1. Ezekiel Elliott58%, 14 carries
  2. Bailey Zappe21%, 5 carries
  3. DeMario Douglas13%, 3 carries
  4. Kevin Harris8%, 2 carries

Buffalo Bills

Snap Share

  1. Gabe DavisWR63 snaps91%
  2. Khalil ShakirWR55 snaps80%
  3. Stefon DiggsWR45 snaps65%
  4. James CookRB38 snaps55%
  5. Dalton KincaidTE38 snaps55%

Target Share28 targets

  1. Stefon Diggs25%, 7 targets
  2. Dalton Kincaid25%, 7 targets
  3. Khalil Shakir14%, 4 targets
  4. Trent Sherfield11%, 3 targets
  5. Gabe Davis11%, 3 targets
  6. Other14%, 4 targets

Carry Share37 carries

  1. James Cook43%, 16 carries
  2. Josh Allen30%, 11 carries
  3. Ty Johnson14%, 5 carries
  4. Kyle Allen5%, 2 carries
  5. Latavius Murray3%, 1 carries
  6. Other5%, 2 carries
View full usage tableHide full usage table
Offensive snaps and share for the skill positions
PlayerSNAPSSNAP %TGTTGT %CAR
DeMario DouglasNEWR5094%521%3
Gabe DavisBUFWR6391%311%0
Ezekiel ElliottNERB4381%28%14
Khalil ShakirBUFWR5580%414%1
Tyquan ThorntonNEWR3770%313%0
Pharaoh BrownNETE3668%14%0
Mike GesickiNETE3668%625%0
Jalen ReagorNEWR3668%313%0
Stefon DiggsBUFWR4565%725%1
James CookBUFRB3855%311%16
Dalton KincaidBUFTE3855%725%0
Dawson KnoxBUFTE3043%00%0
DeVante ParkerNEWR1528%28%0
Latavius MurrayBUFRB1928%14%1
Trent SherfieldBUFWR1928%311%0
Kevin HarrisNERB1121%28%2
Ty JohnsonBUFRB1319%00%5
Quintin MorrisBUFTE710%00%0
Reggie GilliamBUFRB46%00%0
Deonte HartyBUFWR34%00%0
Matt SokolNETE12%00%0

Fantasy Points vs Expected

Expected points (xFP) are what a player's pass attempts, carries and targets are worth at the league's average rates; the difference is what the player made of them.

  • Biggest overperformer+4.3Kevin Harris8.9 PTS vs 4.6 xFP
  • Biggest underperformer−9.4James Cook III5.4 PTS vs 14.8 xFP
  • Highest expected volume19.4 xFPJosh Allen22.2 PTS scored
Usage and expected fantasy points
PlayerPTSxFPvs xFPSnap%UsageRte%Pass attCarCar%TgtTgt%
Josh AllenBUF · QB22.219.4+2.897%30 att—301130%00%
James Cook IIIBUF · RB5.414.8−9.455%43% car—01643%311%
Bailey ZappeNE · QB15.114.0+1.1100%26 att—26521%00%
Stefon DiggsBUF · WR7.112.3−5.265%25% tgt—013%725%
Ezekiel ElliottNE · RB11.511.9−0.481%58% car—01458%28%
Dalton KincaidBUF · TE12.711.7+1.055%25% tgt—000%725%
DeMario DouglasNE · WR7.310.2−2.994%21% tgt—0313%521%
Mike GesickiNE · TE7.510.0−2.568%25% tgt—000%625%
Khalil ShakirBUF · WR8.97.3+1.680%14% tgt—013%414%
Gabe DavisBUF · WR4.15.0−0.991%11% tgt—000%311%
Jalen ReagorNE · WR4.95.0−0.168%13% tgt—000%313%
Trent SherfieldBUF · WR0.05.0−5.028%11% tgt—000%311%
Tyquan ThorntonNE · WR5.45.0+0.470%13% tgt—000%313%
Kevin HarrisNE · RB8.94.6+4.321%8% tgt—028%28%
DeVante ParkerNE · WR2.53.3−0.828%8% tgt—000%28%
Ty JohnsonBUF · RB2.23.1−0.919%14% car—0514%00%
Latavius MurrayBUF · RB0.02.3−2.328%4% tgt—013%14%
Pharaoh BrownNE · TE-0.51.7−2.268%4% tgt—000%14%
Kyle AllenBUF · QB-0.21.2−1.43%0 att—025%00%

Team totals: Patriots 24 targets and 24 carries; Bills 28 targets and 37 carries. Shares are from the box score. Snap counts are from the weekly player logs (Sleeper), and include plays wiped out by penalties. Route counts, air yards and red-zone touches appear when the tracking feed is connected. League-average rates from the 2023 season: 1.67 PPR points per target (67% catch rate), 0.61 per carry and 0.42 per pass attempt. They don't adjust for field position or target depth.

Fantasy Verdicts

Bailey Zappe

NE · QB · 15.1 pts on 14.0 expected

16 of 26 passing for 209 yards, 3 interceptions; 5 carries for 37 yards and 1 touchdown.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 14.0 expected.

Josh Allen

BUF · QB · 22.2 pts on 19.4 expected

15 of 30 passing for 169 yards, 1 interception; 11 carries for 44 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 19.4 expected.

Start/Sit: Josh Allen →

Ezekiel Elliott

NE · RB · 11.5 pts on 11.9 expected

2 targets (8% of the team's), 1 catch for 6 yards; 14 carries (58% of the team's) for 39 yards and 1 touchdown.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 11.9 expected.

DeMario Douglas

NE · WR · 7.3 pts on 10.2 expected

5 targets (21% of the team's), 3 catches for 31 yards; 3 carries (13% of the team's) for 12 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 10.2 expected.

Start/Sit: DeMario Douglas →

James Cook III Unlucky

BUF · RB · 5.4 pts on 14.8 expected

3 targets (11% of the team's), 1 catch for -4 yards; 16 carries (43% of the team's) for 48 yards.

Verdict: The role was there, worth 14.8 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.

Stefon Diggs Unlucky

BUF · WR · 7.1 pts on 12.3 expected

7 targets (25% of the team's), 4 catches for 26 yards; 1 carry (3% of the team's) for 5 yards.

Verdict: The role was there, worth 12.3 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.

Start/Sit: Stefon Diggs →

Trent Sherfield Unlucky

BUF · WR · 0.0 pts on 5.0 expected

3 targets (11% of the team's), 0 catches for 0 yards.

Verdict: The role was there, worth 5.0 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.

Mike Gesicki

NE · TE · 7.5 pts on 10.0 expected

6 targets (25% of the team's), 4 catches for 35 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 10.0 expected.

Start/Sit: Mike Gesicki →

Stock Up, Stock Down

New England Patriots

  • Stock up: Ezekiel Elliott played 81% of the snaps, up from a 48% season average.
  • Stock up: DeMario Douglas played 94% of the snaps, up from a 51% season average.
  • Stock up: Mike Gesicki played 68% of the snaps, up from a 48% season average.

Buffalo Bills

  • Stock up: Khalil Shakir played 80% of the snaps, up from a 48% season average.
  • Stock down: Stefon Diggs played 65% of the snaps, down from a 82% season average.

Fantasy Matchups

Fantasy points allowed per game by position, 2023 through Week 18.

Fantasy points allowed per game by position, Patriots defense and Bills defense
Points allowed toPatriots DBills D
QBs14.614.8
RBs20.920.9
WRs31.729.5
TEs9.010.3

Regular season, summed from each game's box score and scored with this page's rules.

How the Game Swung

Buffalo opened at 50% win probability and passed 98% in the fourth quarter on the way to the win.

Bills win probability

Bills win probability by game minuteBills started at 50%, stood at 73% at halftime and finished at 100%, across 8 scoring plays.Q1Q2Q3Q4100%50%0%

Key Swings

  1. −20Reagor 98-yd TD50% → 30%Q1 14:48
  2. +22Allen 1-yd TD run37% → 59%Q1 6:37
  3. +17Douglas 40-yd pick-six70% → 87%Q2 12:36
  4. −17Zappe 17-yd TD run88% → 71%Q2 9:44
  5. +18Allen 1-yd TD run75% → 93%Q3 10:42

Swing in Bills win probability, in points

Play Calling and Possessions

Play calling, Patriots vs Bills
New England PatriotsMeasureBuffalo Bills
53Plays68
55%Pass rate46%
6.6Yds / dropback5.0
4.3Yds / carry3.4
4/10Third downs7/15

Efficiency edge Buffalo ran 15 more plays than New England.

  • Top targets
  • NE Gesicki 25% · Douglas 21% · Reagor 13%
  • BUF Kincaid 25% · Diggs 25% · Shakir 14%

Possession Results

How each possession ended, Patriots vs Bills
ResultNEBUF
Touchdowns32
Field goals02
Punts46
Turnovers41
Missed field goals10

BUF turnover edge: +3

  • The Patriots opened the scoring on their first possession, a 0-play, 0-yard drive that ended in a touchdown.
  • The Bills drained the clock with three second-half drives of four to six minutes.
All 25 possessions, drive by drive
Drive chart
TeamStartPlaysYardsTimeResult
NEQ1 15:00000:12Touchdown
BUFQ1 14:48341:42Punt
NEQ1 13:06100:06Interception
BUFQ1 13:00440:53Field goal
NEQ1 12:07351:47Punt
BUFQ1 10:205111:39Punt
NEQ1 8:41100:07Interception
BUFQ1 8:344141:57Touchdown
NEQ1 6:37250:46Fumble
BUFQ1 5:517243:35Field goal
NEQ1 2:163-71:22Punt
BUFQ1 0:543190:50Punt
NEQ1 0:046292:28Interception
NEQ2 12:366752:52Touchdown
BUFQ2 9:449324:01Interception
NEQ2 5:439603:54Missed FG
BUFQ2 1:49380:44Punt
NEQ2 1:05211:05End of half
BUFQ3 15:008754:18Touchdown
NEQ3 10:4211367:41Punt
BUFQ3 3:016253:51Punt
NEQ4 14:107843:09Touchdown
BUFQ4 11:017304:20Punt
NEQ4 6:41381:39Punt
BUFQ4 5:0211355:02End of game
About these numbers

The Bills' interception touchdown is counted as a Patriots interception, not as a Bills possession. Possessions that ended with the clock running out at the half or the end of the game aren't counted.

Personnel groupings, average depth of target and pass rate over expected appear when the tracking feed is connected.

Patriots vs Bills Head-to-Head

The Patriots and Bills first met in 1960 and have played 133 times since. They have been AFC East rivals since 1970.

All-time series
80–52–1Patriots lead, 133 meetings since 1960
Postseason
1–1Patriots won in 1963; Bills won in 2021
Largest Patriots win
56–102007
Largest Bills win
45–101970

Since 2021

7–4 Bills lead

11 meetings since the 2021 season, regular season and playoffs.

Oldest to newest. B = Bills win, P = Patriots win, outlined = this game.

2026 Meetings

  • Week 4 Patriots at Bills Upcoming
  • Week 13 Bills at Patriots Upcoming

Recent Meetings

Season to Date (Through Week 18)

The 2023 regular season, from each game's box score.

Season to date, Patriots vs Bills
PatriotsStatBills
4-13Record11-6
13.9Points per game26.5
276.2Yards per game374.5
4.6Yards per play5.7
21.5Points allowed per game18.3
301.6Yards allowed per game307.2

Patriots vs Bills Fantasy Outlook for 2026

Two meetings are left on the 2026 schedule: Week 4 in Buffalo and Week 13 in New England. Here's how to decide who to play in your league.

Keep Exploring

2023 Game Logs for Players in This Game

Patriots vs Bills Game FAQ

Who won the 2023 Patriots vs Bills Week 17 game?

The Buffalo Bills beat the New England Patriots 27–21 in Week 17 of the 2023 season. The game was played at Highmark Stadium (Old) in Orchard Park, NY, on December 31, 2023. See the Bills' 2023 schedule.

What was the final score of Patriots vs Bills?

The final score was Bills 27, Patriots 21. The Bills led 20–14 at halftime, and the second half went Patriots 7, Bills 7.

What happened in the Patriots vs Bills game?

Buffalo led 20–14 at halftime to win 27–21. New England outgained the Bills 294–281. Josh Allen led all players with 15 of 30 passing for 169 yards, plus 11 carries for 44 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. The Patriots committed 4 turnovers, the Bills 1.

Who scored the most fantasy points in Patriots vs Bills?

Josh Allen led the game with 22.2 PPR fantasy points, the QB6 of Week 17, on 15 of 30 passing for 169 yards, plus 11 carries for 44 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. Bailey Zappe was next with 15.1 (QB18). See Josh Allen's 2023 game log.

Who led Patriots vs Bills in passing, rushing and receiving?

Bailey Zappe (NE) led all passers with 16 of 26 for 209 yards and 3 interceptions. James Cook (BUF) led in rushing with 16 carries for 48 yards. Dalton Kincaid (BUF) led in receiving with 4 catches for 87 yards.

How many fantasy points did Josh Allen score against the Patriots?

Josh Allen scored 22.2 fantasy points against the Patriots in Week 17 of the 2023 season, the same in PPR, half-PPR and standard scoring because he had no catches, on 15 of 30 passing for 169 yards, plus 11 carries for 44 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns.

Who outperformed and underperformed expected fantasy points in Patriots vs Bills?

Kevin Harris outperformed his expected fantasy points the most, scoring 8.9 PPR points on 4.6 xFP (+4.3). James Cook III fell furthest short, with 5.4 points on 14.8 xFP (−9.4). A gap either way reflects efficiency and touchdowns in one game; it is not a forecast. For matchups ahead, see fantasy points allowed by position.

Who had the highest expected fantasy points in Patriots vs Bills?

Josh Allen had the most fantasy opportunity in the game, worth 19.4 expected PPR points (xFP) at league-average rates, and scored 22.2. Expected points measure the volume of a player's pass attempts, carries and targets, not how well he used them.

How did the Bills beat the Patriots?

The Bills beat the Patriots 27–21 because they won the turnover battle 4–1.

Which team won the turnover battle in Patriots vs Bills?

The Bills won the turnover battle 4–1: the Patriots gave the ball away 4 times and the Bills 1 time. The Bills won the game.

What is the all-time Patriots vs Bills record?

The Patriots lead the all-time series 80–52–1 across 133 meetings since 1960, including a 1–1 record in the postseason.

When did the Patriots and Bills last play before this game?

Before Week 17 of 2023, they last met in the 2023 season on October 22, 2023, when the Patriots beat the Bills 29–25.

Have the Patriots and Bills met in the playoffs?

Yes, 2 times, most recently in the 2021 playoffs. The Patriots are 1–1 against the Bills in the postseason.

What is the Patriots vs Bills record since 2021?

The Bills lead 7–4 across 11 meetings since the 2021 season, including this game.